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  2. → Viewing Profile: Posts: jethro

jethro

Member Since 09 Oct 2006
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In Topic: Solar Maximum/minimum And Winter/summer Weather

03 May 2012 - 23:20

View PostPolar Maritime, on 03 May 2012 - 23:17 , said:

Thanks for posting jethro, ive had a quik flick through it very interesting finds re- time lag.

Will have a better in-depth read tomorrow when my brain is more active, as it's starting to fade now... Posted Image

Apologies, it's definitely a make a cuppa and slowly digest kind of read - not really bedtime reading.....I guess nodding off wouldn't be a problem though.

In Topic: Arctic Ice Discussion (the what should be the Melt but isn't yet)

03 May 2012 - 23:16

View Postcheeky_monkey, on 03 May 2012 - 22:48 , said:

no it doesnt according to those papers the artic is 1c warmer now than in 1920...shows it warmed from 1920 - 50 then cooled up to 1980s then warmed agained up to and including now.


Exactly. This is the point I made earlier (with the addition of the caveat that the data was only until 2003, so later years obviously altered the cooling conclusion).

The study GW linked to compares today with a time period of the 1950's to the late 1970's. The time period chosen for comparison is a time when the Arctic was naturally cooler and the ice was increasing. If they had used the earlier period of 1920's through to 1950 when the Arctic was warmer, with less ice then it would have made the new study a more direct and therefore more valid comparison.

Compare a warm period to another warm period. Don't compare a cold period to a warm period - unless that is you want to make your study and the measured impacts overly dramatic. Leave showbiz to showbiz, science shouldn't tread the drama path.

In Topic: Solar Maximum/minimum And Winter/summer Weather

03 May 2012 - 23:02

Thought some of you may find this new paper interesting, it was published a couple of months ago in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. The study finds a link between temperature in the Northern Atlantic regions and the length of the Solar cycle; the correlation is not as instant as you would expect, there is a considerable time lag before the impact is felt.

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf

In Topic: Arctic Ice Discussion (the what should be the Melt but isn't yet)

03 May 2012 - 18:53

View Postcheeky_monkey, on 03 May 2012 - 18:23 , said:

but was it?...and if so it was declining in relation to what exactly?

Yes it was.

All the info can be found by checking out the peer reviewed studies of Igor Polyakov. He's a well respected scientist, his work is accepted and quoted by the IPCC, he is not, and cannot be claimed to be a sceptic of AGW.

http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/people/igor

An excerpt of this paper http://www2.gi.alask....etal.2003a.pdf


For example, the Arctic temperature was higher in the 1930s–40s than in recent decades, and hence a trend calculated for the period 1920 to the present actually shows cooling.

This was published in 2003, clearly the info from years since then may change the final figures and counter the cooling trend, but the historical facts remain the same.

In Topic: Arctic Ice Discussion (the what should be the Melt but isn't yet)

03 May 2012 - 17:40

View PostGray-Wolf, on 03 May 2012 - 14:54 , said:

For those still indoubt that GHG's are what done it! ;

http://www.scienceda...20502091932.htm

I've only briefly scanned the article but first thoughts are why have they used the time period of 1950's - 1970's for the comparison? This was a period of ice expansion in the Arctic, so much so that for a time it sparked concerns of whether or not we were heading into another ice age. IMO, it would have made more sense and made their findings more valid if they had used the period prior to then, the early years of the 20th century when the ice was also declining.

Using the period they have used is akin to picking the high point of 1998 in the global temperature record, then plotting the decline in temperature since, and saying we're cooling.

A bit bonkers really.

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