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Yeti

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    Cambridge (term time) and Bonn, Germany 170m (holidays)

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  1. Fairly heavy snow here in Cambridge. Settling everywhere...
  2. Yes, ironically as some have said, it looks like the East may actually be in a better position for Monday/Tuesday's snow event than the West, because the low looks like tracking too far west for anywhere, in England/Wales at least, to pick up a northerly flow but at the same time this could draw a SE'ly flow off the continent up the eastern flank: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12010.png So the North and East currently look most likely to see snow from this event although this is obviously still subject to change. A small shift W may actually help keep DPs lower further W, but it requires a pretty big shift E now to get the full effects of the N'ly and this looks unlikely.
  3. If the whole of the UK is sitting under the high on Thursday/Friday as Lewis seems to be suggesting then I will eat my hat. Sorry but this is really getting quite annoying, what "point" is actually being made here? That we're all in for a big disappointment if we don't listen to what he says? The only reason that anybody should be disappointed is if they took those tasty FI charts at face value a few days back. In fact I remember certain individuals were already talking about snow for most of the week in Yorkshire. FI is, and always will be, UNRELIABLE, especially wrt details such as where snow will fall! Honestly, if anyone is disappointed at that 12z they have themselves to blame! The UKMO and ECM still have the high slightly further N anyway (and the 12z is marginally better than the 6z, so quite what this new "trend" is I've no idea). There's no reason to think that this is all going to be a flop - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif All in all an excellent selection of charts, with cold for all and snow for most places S of the Wash and even N of it at times.
  4. Really I don't see what the big issue is at the moment - this was always going to be more of an event for SE/E Anglia as soon as it appeared within the more reliable timeframe and I don't see much output to change that? Easterlies rarely affect the whole of the UK - in fact they are usually severest in the SE - and people were warned of this a few days ago but as usual, many seemed intent on ramping it up: blizzard this, Feb 86 that. There has been a SLIGHT shunt Swards but this is almost always the case with the models, and often they readjust (upgrade) later on to reach a halfway house. Besides, the difference this will actually make at the surface, as TEITS says, is really very small indeed. Snow showers could still crop up in most areas with more and more the further S and E you go. It still looks an exciting week for many, and even if it doesn't snow, at least it will be relatively settled, cold and sunny. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png Doesn't seem a bad chart to me considering we were looking at raging SW'lies just a week ago!
  5. Yes, I seem to remember that during previous cold spells this winter the models were already showing breakdowns which kept being put back over and over again. However this time the ops just keep it cold all the way through, even to T384. This can only be a good sign - and we should bear in mind also that although good synoptics are difficult to get, they are also very difficult to get rid of, rather like mild patterns. With the SSW kicking in later, we could be in for a very cold February overall.
  6. Eh? If the sun enhances land convection then it must also enhance sea convection... both involve exactly the same mechanism, except that the sea has a lot more water so it produces a lot more activity. Similarly, if the sun is strong enough, as some people are suggesting, to make a difference to daytime temps by heating the ground more, then it cannot NOT have effects in other areas... that just doesn't make sense. It's certainly true, though, that cold uppers are vital to decent convection which is why I suspect there won't be that much around before midweek. In fact, the upper profile doesn't look brilliant, all things taken into account - the core of the cold pool is now trending further S into Germany with more S and E areas still seeing some really decent 850 temps - still subject to upgrades/downgrades.
  7. There is lots of talk about longer days and a stronger sun which is certainly true, but we ought to remember that this also increases convection potential. A stronger sun than in Jan, shining over a comparatively cold N Sea should result in a lot of beefy snow showers - the question is will these make it far inland. The flow isn't great if we're honest, but it's better than a lot we've had where snow showers have formed in many areas, so I think it would be fair to say that some places could see a good amount of snow even this week - particularly parts of East Anglia and the SE from Wednesday onwards - the risk zone being a bit further N prior to this.
  8. Nice to see you back Steve, your input is always v. popular - I see you are as excited as many other members are!! Now that is a nice NE'ly from the ECM at 120!
  9. Indeed - and with the sun that bit stronger, and the North Sea that bit colder than the last cold spell, these charts would produce some very impressive convection. On the GFS and UKMO 12z the high is also in such a position that the whole of the eastern side would be affected. I remember last cold spell people were complaining about the precip charts being too dry and that it was going to be a cold dry spell. When it came to it that was far from the case - but look at this already: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1504.png For the GFS to pick up on that convection so far out, it's difficult to imagine how awesome the activity would be if that 144 chart actually verified! Still a long way to go though yet, but things trending in the right direction. And obviously, those precip charts are only useful as an indication of the sort of pattern we're looking at atm, i.e. sunshine and snow showers.
  10. Well there's reasonable model agreement tonight on the future synoptic evolution which is obvious because people are starting to argue about where the snow is going to fall!! The truth is that the SE and EA will nearly always be the favoured spots for snow showers in these easterly setups, but as we know, snow would crop up in most places IF the charts were to verify, as fine detail is a long way from being modelled atm. Let's hope things firm up in the right direction more and more, otherwise I think any backtracks to mild tomorrow will be too much for some members to cope with emotionally! If this does turn out to be a notable easterly spell, this winter really will go down as one where luck has been very much on the side of the cold ramper, after years of misfortunes.
  11. Tbh CC I think things are looking pretty clear now; it doesn't look like there is going to be a cold spell in the near future. The fabled easterly has once again disappeared from all the models. This time I fear it is too late for it to reappear. There was hope this morning from the UKMO but this, too, has now turned into mild SW'lies and I believe the first truly mild spell of winter is nearly upon us. The problem is that the west based NAO is almost more than a help rather than a hindrance as we just end up trapped on the wrong side of the trough with the block holding the unfavourable pattern in position, and whilst it wouldn't take much to bring us a colder flow, these small changes would actually be quite stubborn to occur. I have refrained from posting until things firmed up somewhat but tonight it seems things have done exactly that. The writing was on the wall a couple of days ago when the easterly appeared only on certain models, and each time that particular model was "the favourite" for some reason or other; for example until this morning the UKMO was written off by most but when it showed the desired undercut this morning it was clearly a "trend setter". For the newbies on here, this is a good indication that a cold spell isn't on the cards. Hopefully things will be more favourable mid-month as the SSW pumps up the height rises over the Arctic - this may be a more promising period for a cold spell to occur. Until then, the background signals were looking pretty mixed, with conflicting cold/mild signs that in the end look like giving us a frustrating near miss!
  12. As far as I can see the main problem is the new trend for a ridge to develop over Europe; GP hinted at this a while back but unfortunately, rather than low heights over Europe sucking in undercutting LPs we end up with the ridge deflecting them N at the worst moment. Of course the west based NAO actually helps to lock in the mild for a time as lows struggle to make much eastward progress but then on the other hand, as others have said, it only takes relatively small changes to move the pattern eastwards into a more favourable position for the UK. Certainly though nobody can honestly deny that there is a trend for milder weather now on all of the major models, and the ECM ensembles have taken a dramatic turn for the worse. So this has to be the most favoured outcome IMO, however annoying that is!
  13. We have a covering here in Cambridge atm after a little fall last night... a nice surprise, as I wasn't expecting anything. Looks like that's it for showers in the E though now except the extreme E of E Anglia.
  14. Yes the NAO is forecast to go slightly negative but perhaps we shouldn't worry too much about just how negative it actually goes: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif If you look at the ECM - so far the best of the models today - the NAO is only slightly negative, with the Azores high not displaced very much and the block more E based than GL based. A strongly -ve NAO will be recorded when there is a large GL block forcing low pressure over the Azores. But this setup, as we know, isn't necessary to produce long, deep cold...
  15. With the greatest of respect CC, if my memory serves me correctly you have been calling a return to cold ever since the end of the last cold spell - so, inevitably if/when it does return you will obviously be the first to have called it! As Tamara has already pointed out, the signs for a cold spell have not been (and still aren't) concrete, and February could quite easily have gone either way even though now a cold month is certainly favoured. IMO it is far too early to be celebrating forecasting victories, so let's just sit tight and see how things pan out. Even the northerly hasn't arrived yet, never mind any potential reloads from the East. This thread has, IMO, become quite polarised recently with two clear camps, which is a shame because judging by the comparative lack of posting with December, it is not just me who's decided to "lurk" instead of post. As for the 12z, the HP doesn't get as far N as the 6z although I suspect that - as usual - the GFS is overdoing cyclogenesis and deepening those Atlantic depressions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png Still, this is such a long way out that tiny changes in the short term will give rise to enormous long term changes, so it's almost useless looking at the 850 profiles as in the scheme of things these are small details that will become firmer later. Best keep an eye on the short to mid-term, particularly how the models are handling the troughing in Europe and upstream as this will be crucial to correct HP placement...
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