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Snowly does it

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  1. Interesting pattern in the low res, heights building where we want them....
  2. GFS uses one of its insane low pressures to blast through at T162. Cold for the foreseeable, Atlantic back, sometime, but when?
  3. Atlantic still struggling, just about in by t150 but cold not far away with -10s in the North Sea, wouldn't take much of a shift to stay very cold. As it is maxima still in very low digits by Friday
  4. Maybe sliding underneath at T132? Cold less intense but clinging on
  5. 06z has the colder uppers mixed out by early in the week, but it remains cold with -5 850s coming and going through to T120 where we have surprise surprise, a press coming from the Atlantic by (say) T144
  6. GFS certainly seems to be playing the 'how do I normalise weather 6 days out?' game Maybe with record breaking entropy and SSW action, you don't! This whole T150 breakdown every time is a case of a stopped clock being right once every 12 hours......
  7. True enough, Norfolk certainly as a few cm already in place. Cold air back in Tues/Weds with -10s knocking on EA door
  8. Monday looks marginal for the s, SE and EA unless some colder dew points are in play....
  9. I may be being a bit simple, but isn't it rather marginal by Sunday for those in the South and SE and EA? 850s are at -3 or -4, and whilst the dew points will be low, could there not be a wintry mix? Or is snow under those circs more likely?
  10. -5 850s are retreating north at t96, from the Wash across - presumably still cold enough in a continental flow for those south if the line??
  11. I'd agree with that, their warning talks of break down and the latest fax does seem to show less undercut and more head on, so perhaps the ECM or even the GFS view is more favoured? Even so, it will come down to forecasting much nearer the time and we will then see whether the cold holds on in the East and North - certainly the latest 6-15 seems to support cold being close to these areas, with the W and SW seeing rain mainly away from the hills
  12. 06z has the cold air further east by T66 with only EA and parts of the south and midlands in under -5 air, however lets see what sort of fight back it mounts from here
  13. Atlantic breaking through at t120, but it takes a GFS superstorm to do it, and everything is shifting south run by run....
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