Michael Fishermans Friend

What is his forecast for the rest of the winter?, waiting for the LRF one...and then the amended version.

Difficult to see us breaking out of this rut but I do expect to see a colder interlude around mid month probably dominated by high pressure so 5.5c for me please!

I was thinking for some reason of Minsk being in Russia (not sure why), all the same my point for Moscow stands, hardly cold their either.

Wasn't Minsk, Moscow the other day (for Xmas day) showing the barest of lying snow? looking at the above chart shouldn't that be green around those areas as well? - looking pretty poor at the moment.

Yep to a degree I think your right, I've noticed this too over recent mild winters - a pattern of zonal Atlantic driven weather IS difficult to shift once set in, I can't remember too many recent winters after having continuous Atlantic stuff then to turn cold. Philip Eden went on record saying that the particularly warm SST's off the Eastern seaboard of the States aren't helping things if you wished for a cold winter in these parts and that coupled with the effects of La Nina. If nothing is showing on the models by late January I'd start to think of 'writing off' the winter as regards to hard/severe conditions, don't forget also if this weather pattern doesn't change the near continent and probably parts of Scandanavia will be snow free which will not help lets say come February if we do get some form of Scandanavia blocking and Easterlies (as per 2005) so would have to rely on an Arctic blast. Not looking good so far this winter.

Isn't such a thing as 'balancing the books' in weather - but unfortunately looking at the GFS model outputs over the last month it is becoming very tedious viewing with a very positive NAO, as we've had 3 colder than average winters in a row I thought we'd be pushing it to have 4, something which I think wasn't experienced even in the 50's and 60's (I think). Fingers crossed though, we've got a lot of this winter to see out.

Really? I read somewhere that the East/North Eastern States were forecast to have a severe winter - probably one of numerous forecasts.

Hi Bill, well with the magnificent Volvo FM12 now out on the roads with Air suspension, double drive axle and limited slip diffierential at each wheel it's no wonder other lorries are shooting their loads then again it could be an isolated snowfall (hardly likely). As for The Sun 2012 outlook, as said just trying to get his name in lights (John Kettley that is). Happy christmasses to you!

Very green United States bar Montana, Utah, Colorado etc, - Eastern seaboard experiencing very mild conditions at present, (forecast was to be for a severe winter) - time for things to change though.

Yes I know, mabye after the next week or so of mild conditions - I think we'll have a positive anomoly CET wise

Noticed how they talked about the huge snowfalls in the UK and North west Europe - but wasn't that in December last year, I then turned over...

Fairly mild - I think Ian Brown gave a statistic the other day about few cold winter months followed after a relatively mild December (in recent times). Model watching at the moment isn't fantatstic.

A complete lack of blocking so far this winter...I wonder if he is a coldie?

It's more accurate as he updated it 3/4 days before the north had their first wintryish spell at the end of November, ok looks like he's going to be accurate regarding the xmas mildness but as for his LRF done a couple of months ago....

Interesting nothing from the Express about a balmy xmas! hhmmm.... I wonder why?, look at my post on the last page.