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full_frontal_occlusion

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full_frontal_occlusion last won the day on March 23 2012

full_frontal_occlusion had the most liked content!

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    Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Interests
    Engineering, Music, Sailing and Gliding. Particular interest in science and the NWP application to meteorology although no desire to become and expert in that field!

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  1. Whilst this is an interesting story, the device remains to be tested in a vacuum and microgravity let alone understood. Other experiments which seemed to violate conventional laws of physics (cold fusion, faster than light neutrinos etc.), have since proven to be in error. The NASA scientists have not jumped the gun and stated 'it works' but have cautiously suggested further experimentation is necessary - evidently having learned from the mistakes of others. If it is proven to work, then a new chapter of science and possibly the next evolutionary state of humans may have just opened up. I will wait for confirmation but something tells me that the wait should be tempered with a healthy dose of caution.
  2. R.O.F.L.M.A.O. When the sun goes down, Water vapour condenses out and ends up as a drop in the ocean. Literally and metaphorically. If we were to suddenly switch from producing the same mass of globally produced CO2 to H2O, then it would take around 10,000,000 years to increase the volume of water on the planet by less than 0.01%.
  3. I hope they both have good pre-nuptials. In space, no-one can hear you scream.
  4. I think it's less complex than the 'no debate' argument. Secnario: Joe Bloggs average IQ 100. Wants an easy life, struggles to make ends meet in times of austerity and everywhere he looks for an answer to this climate change thing, he gets conflicting viewpoints. Who can he trust? Not the politicians; They are all out for fiddling expenses, bribery and corruption endemic, and, I didn't vote for any of their policies. When I did, they did a u-turn and sold us out. The media? Uh, gimme a break. They are as corrupt as the politicians and will hack the phones of dead children letting those poor parents believe they are still alive. Scum. Captains of Industry? Nope: profit, profit, more profit and bleeding the suckers dry is all that matters. Hell, I don't even know whether beef is beef any more. The scientists? Well what a bunch of no-hopers. They gave us nukes, genetic mutations, chemical weapons and can;t even tell what the weather will be like in a few days time let alone 50 years from now. So with all of these 'big' people who I don't trust shouting at me and forcing me to do stuff I don't agree with, and, since I won't be alive to see it happen anyways, I'm not gonna loose any sleep over it. If it does happen, ain't much I can do about it. Just gonna hunker down with l'il ole head in the sand and worry about my bills and if I can hold on to my job and house and get my kids a decent livin' and God will take care of the rest. Footnote: Nothing will be done until it becomes a clear and present danger and a few capital cities get flooded around the world, the coasts march several miles inland with a few decades of drought wiping out the grain bowls, mass migrations across borders prompting robust military action. But then isn't that what people are sick and tired of hearing? I totally agree with others who have said change will be driven through by industry: when 'green' transportation and power generation replaces 'fossil' in the war for profits and taxes. All of us, believers and sceptics alike surely want the same legacy - a beautiful planet fit for our children and our children's children. ffO. ffO.
  5. Or perhaps the Blue Oyster Cult....... http://youtu.be/kgqDtU8BXf0 ffO (Cover version but K.A. nonetheless)
  6. The simple answer is no, surface warming is not countered by stratospheric cooling. As the planets surface heats up due to absorption of shortwave UV radiation from the sun, the release of that stored surface energy is via longwave infra-red radiation. It's here that greenhouse gases trap that energy and the troposphere heats up. However as the net global tropospheric temperature increases (and since the rate of radiation is also a function of temperature), the troposphere emits radiation at a higher rate, an ever increasing part if which then goes straight past the stratosphere and exits to space. The tropospheric temperature can only equalise and remain constant when the incoming shortwave energy absorbed is equal to the longwave outgoing radiated energy. i.e. the energies are balanced. ffO.
  7. Oh, just noticed this reply so apologies for the belated response: I'm no expert, so some of the others may wish to interject The boundary is defined by a thermal inversion which as you know varies with height between the polar regions and at the equator. As far as is practicable, there is very little mixing between the stratosphere and troposphere. The coupling between the layers therefore arises from adiabatic expansion and contraction of regions of air within each layer. The gas laws (PV/T = constant) which themselves are a function of the thermodynamic conservation laws, which state that as the temperature within a gas rises (forced by external influence), then either the pressure or volume or both must change in order to ensure equilibrium. This means that if the temperature of a region within the stratosphere rises then the pressure and volume of the gas within that region must also change (divergence). This will therefore influence the tropospheric air underneath causing low level convergence. Thus adiabatic (or diabatic) expansion and contraction corresponds to tropospheric air pressure changes together with a thermal change. NB. Little work is done between the layers so there is no net exchange of energy between them. The surface thermal and pressure changes are a result of the expanding and contracting of pressure coupling between the layers. Does that make more sense? ffO.
  8. Energy conservation laws dear chap. Longwave radiation carries less energy than the incoming shortwave per quanta. So less energy gets back out into space and the temperature on the inside (atmosphere beneath the CO2 layer) rises as more energy gets stored. But as the stored energy increases, the amount of energy lost through longwave radiation back out into space also starts to increase - until the incoming/outgoing balance is restored and the temperature reaches equilibrium in the troposphere. The stratosphere is transparent to longwave to all intent, so energy transfer is via convection between layers. ffO.
  9. A week ago during the major snow events, everyone was gnashing and wailing because all the models showed nothing but the Atlantic train-ride. SSW's were consigned to the scrap heap as being unpredictable on their affects for (cold-lovers) favourable positioning of the fragmented Polar Vortex. Predictions by some of the most respected members on NW.tv were trashed as being unreliable and new-fangled mathematical hocus-pocus with the rest of winter consigned to the bin. The snow is gone and the Atlantic has indeed powered up, but the models for several runs now, have shown tentative signs of cold returning form the North. Still in FI, but the trend is nonetheless there. As always, the outcome will only start to become apparent when the steady-state features (blocking patterns, high pressure anchors etc.) enter into to higher resolution parts of the model run. And as we all know (or should know by now) the very real stratospheric events take time to propagate and influence the troposphere. That latency coupled with the relatively poor vertical resolution capability of the current NWP models conspire to make 'surpise' output turnarounds likely in even the statistically reliable modeling timeframe. In the meantime, look to the other indicators for guidance. Extended range ensemble means, frictional & mountain torques, ENSO, GWO phasing etc. Patience young Padawan's. Winter will return. ffO.
  10. Hi SB, very informative and well written post. Thank you. A couple of items which your comments would be appreciated: 1) Noting the differences between Grid Point and Spectral distribution models (which have different abilities in vertical resolution), is there a correlation between that and the perceived lack of ability of the models to pick up the tropospheric impact of long drain events such as SSW's until their effects become resolved within the grid point truncation-error scale? 2) Hybrid models (spectral, grid point, hydrostatic) all have differing strengths and limitations however as I understand it, there is no Grand Unified Model or at least non that I know of in development? For example, hydrostatic models do not have a vertical forecast equation and have limited mesoscale resolution? Whereas non-hydrostatic models are limited by computational time? 3) Parameterisation overheads reduce as a function of grid-point resolution but still necessary to compensate for errors introduced by mesoscale features? 4) Can you give an indication of parameters of that are currently not modeled well but known to be in development? That hidden pattern between summer and winter may point to the difficulty in modeling diurnal forcing within limited vertical resolution models. i.e. When super adiabatic-layers develop in the boundary layer due to diurnal heating, isentropic surfaces appear more than once in the vertical profile above a point? Many thanks, ffO.
  11. There is only one way to treat people who post derogatory remarks in the hope of provoking a response. Ignore them. I can't help but think there is a smidgen of jealousy in some peoples post's. Who was it once said 'science is 1% inspiration, 99% perspiration?' Meteorology has a long way to go, but thank goodness there are people prepared to dedicate their lives to pushing forward the boundaries of knowledge. And to do it in such a public way takes courage and confidence. Long may they continue. ffO.
  12. It ain't over till the fat lady sings. All the popular models had unprecedented trouble settling on this current cold spell even a few days beforehand. If that is also transpiring for long range events between the stratosphere and troposphere, then the outputs used to base next weekends 'potential' breakdown could also be woefully in error. The modeling of the vortex reformation is part of the story - but is it correct? ffO
  13. Cornwall is the county of sunshine and rain, but mostly rain. Head for the moors! PS. Only kidding, Hope you do get some snow!
  14. Hi SB. Are you saying this because you have access to the latest UKV output which has shown the eastern limit of Fridays event? Or is that your prognosis on the current slew of model output and available data? ffO.
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