Yep, especially when we've seen in previous winters how quickly the signal can change. The thing that worries me at the moment is the lack of cold across most of Europe, the UK has been recording lower temps than much of the continent. I'll be happier when widespread cold arrives in Europe and we'll see what happens from there, its not just our little island thats missing out. We're still in December, theres plenty of time left yet and like you say, its a brave man who can write off the next 3months.