stodge

Evening all Early stages in viewing the 12Z output but, other than GFS, there seems broad agreement for the LP to end up just to the west of the British Isles by next Monday introducing South or South westerly winds so something a bit warmer or less cool for many. 12Z GFS OP goes a slightly different route keeping the LP to the south and building heights to the north after which it's a north-south split under an E'ly airflow. Dry to the north but windy but with the trough in charge further south a greater chance of rain or showers and quite high rainfall totals for the far south up to the first May Bank Holiday weekend. Control is more unsettled until far FI. ECM at T+168 follows to an extent with a good old-fashioned late April easterly (GFS 12Z OP at T+168 next to it for comparison):

Evening all It's been a chilly but fine weekend here in lowland East London but next week looks to progressively turn more unsettled as the HP recedes first north west and then west into the Atlantic and the Atlantic trough phases energy into the Scandinavian trough and the two set up over north-west Europe. The problem is the trough becomes wedged between heights over the Atlantic and heights over Eastern Europe and the LPs rotate north to south and south to north crossing and re-crossing the British Isles. The south west looks to catch most of the rain going with nearly two inches in the next ten days while other southern and eastern fare better though I suspect the evolution will also mean sharp showers. ECM 12Z OP offers the trough sinking into Europe as heights try to build through the north of the British Isles but the common theme is recurrent if not strong northern blocking which, aided by a slack jet doesn't mean significant change (or any change) happening too quickly. Tentative signs of temperatures recovering early next month but this week features a couple of nights with extensive air frost and ground frost which will be a concern to horticulture at this critical time.

Evening all After a weekend of chilly HP for the south and east (much more pleasant further north and west), the downhill path next week looks pretty well set. The HP withdraws west into mid-Atlantic as a new trough sinks south into the North Sea creating a new shallow area of LP likely to bring some rain and cool conditions especially to eastern coastal areas. Later next week, that trough phases with the Atlantic trough to create a broad but still fairly shallow trough covering most of north western Europe including the British Isles. This spawns small areas of LP which consolidate into a more significant feature over the British Isles next weekend. The rainfall totals based on 12Z GFS OP look uninspiring - at least 30-50 mm over large parts of eastern England and into central southern England so a long way from dry and settled. It's possible the LP over the south later on will bring in air from a warmer source so a change of something a little warmer though in the more immediate, as I mentioned last evening, the risk of ground frost remains high especially over rural and sheltered areas.

Evening all The HP is ambling across the Atlantic to take up brief residence over the British Isles but it quickly recedes back north west allowing the Scandinavian trough to take control next week. GFS 12Z OP develops a shallow area of LP over western Denmark next Wednesday which extends west to the British Isles - unsettled but no deluges. By the end of next week, this trough has engaged with residual energy over the Atlantic to form a broad but shallow trough over much of northern Europe. Heights remain low over much of the Mediterranean basin and high over Greenland and mid-Atlantic. Overall, in truth, nothing too exciting one way or the other - it's not untypical late April fare in all honesty. Perhaps a short warmer period over Ireland and the far west of Scotland but the main issue might be the nightime minima which suggest plenty of ground frost for sheltered rural areas with all the attendant risks for horticulture at this time of the year.

Evening all The HP will take its time to build in across the British Isles at the end of the week so we should have a spell of quieter weather, drier certainly but not excitingly warm, average at best and with the possibility of some chilly nights leading to ground frost in sheltered rural areas. Into next week and we still lack clarity - with low heights over the Mediterranean and Iberia the obvious option is for the HP to drift north or north west with the trough setting up to the north east pulling in chilly NE'ly winds and for the latter part of the month LP forming to the north coming SSE into the North Sea and bringing cloud and occasional, probably light rain mainly to eastern parts. JMA offers the possibility of a return to more Atlantic dominated conditions for early May but I'm not seeing any significant warmth for the rest of this month.

Evening all Well, yes - our brief "heatwave" doesn't last long though it's been welcome and as the HP recedes west, a new area of LP dives SE across NE Scotland and into the North Sea bringing back more seasonal conditions - close to or only a notch below average - next week, From there, general agreement the HP will inch back towards us but declining as it does after which all manner of scenarios on offer including an almost wintry nirvana from GFS OP (supported to an extent by Control). Other models more circumspect at this time but the HP remains susceptible to easing back west as the trough sinks from the north and heights start to rise around Greenland. A colder spell in mid to late April is hardly unusual but with the HP core in mid Atlantic we're a way from serious warmth and if the LP sinks south to our east, we risk pulling in a cool or very cool N'ly.

Evening all After three or four very pleasant days in the south in particular this week, we have another change as the HP regresses back into the Atlantic and the trough comes south introducing a more NW'ly flow through the weekend and into early next week. From there, your guess is better than mine with all sorts of options on the table though it looks more settled than not with HP somewhere to the north or perhaps north east but you couldn't call it at this time.

WYorksWeather You could have commented on the equally insane GFS OP run T+324 or roughly a fortnight today: Both probably for the bin....

Evening all Early days on the 12Z model output so just a quick couple of thoughts. After tonight's and tomorrow rain it looks like 3-5 days of settled and pleasantly warm weather for most with HP just to the south. Over the coming weekend, that HP breaks down and with the Atlantic HP aligning negatively, we see troughs of LP and cooler air coming back in from the north west though I imagine rainfall totals won't be that high. Outside the reliable it's interesting to see both GEM and GFS looking north for our weather as the next push of warmer air and heights into Greenland leads to a new resurgance of northern blocking over Greenland and indeed GFS OP ends very cool and unsettled with LP tracking south from the Arctic in a N'ly flow. Nothing unusual for late April in all honesty and by no means certain.

Evening all The signal for a drier 3-5 days with HP just to the south of the British Isles remains and is now into the reliable. We have to get through the weekend and a small but quite vigorous LP crossing southern Britain Monday into Tuesday with the latter looking a particularly chilly and wet day for many. From there, just in time for the Grand National, the weather improves but signs from the 12Z suite it's a transient change rather than a significant patter shift. GFS OP and Control build heights to the north suggesting the E'ly some of us have been waiting for many weeks might be on the cards at last. However, a very long way off and a lot to get through starting with this weekend which might be plume-time for some but further west and north just looks plain wet. Some relief for southern and eastern parts after the winter deluge though by no means completely dry but plenty of rain for northern and western areas even up to T+240.

Just a quick comment from me this evening. Tentative signs of something more settled but not yet in the reliable so can only be noted - 12Z GFS OP ends with a return of winter (to a point) so it's far from certain if the HP evolutions put up by GEM and others will be a significant pattern change or a transient development.

Evening all @WYorksWeather has picked the bones out of the Good Friday evening output. Relentlessly unsettled through the coming week and into the following week too with the best on offer transient ridges between Atlantic LP. The signs of something more settled on 12Z GFS OP once again but still far from the reliable and Control keeps the unsettled theme. The ten day rainfall accumulations continue to look very bad especially for large parts of southern, western and northern England and all of Wales. Driest areas look to be NW Scotland and the Western Isles. I presume the higher evaporation rates will help to a degree. Temperature wise nothing too concerning though a very cold night next weekend with severe frosts in northern England and Scotland.

Evening all Not really a lot to be said about tonight's output as there's a strong common theme. The current LP shifts west and then elongates south west back into the Atlantic and sends energy south and west to build a new long elongated trough - it's a pattern we've seen before and basically it's what happens when you get heights to the north trying to push south and heights to the south trying to push north. A succession of LP move close to the British Isles through next week maintaining the unsettled and wet theme with a risk of snow to higher areas midweek as a little feature crosses southern Britain. 12Z ECM offers finally a sign of the jet pushing back north but it's a long way from a done deal and 12Z GFS OP maintains a largely unsettled evolution well into FI. Very early hints around mid month of something more settled but far too far off to be taken seriously at this time. The GFS OP rainfall numbers suggest another 3-4 inches of rain widely across the south and west of England, Wales and the Pennines (possibly as snow) in the next 10 days so flooding concerns remain.

Evening all To put a little meat on the bones of some of the rather brief comments... The deep LP dominates the weather over the Easter weekend sitting either over Ireland or just to the west so rain or showers for many, driest in the east. After Easter, we then see the trough elongate and disrupt between heights from the north west coming south and heights trying to push north from the south. The elongated trough sends a series of LP over southern Britain on a southerly tracking jet so more rain, not too cold though not that warm either. Any hints of something more settled are far too far out to be given much credence at this point. We need to see a break in the trough which would promote heights and that may come as a deeper trough stalls in far off mid Atlantic. Next week looks all about shallower features pushing through in the trough.

Evening all An uninspiring lead in to Easter weekend with the invigorated trough forming a deep LP for the time of year (960 MB or lower) over Ireland. The LP wander sround the British Isles over the weekend before most modesl disrupt it south early next week. GFS OP was on its own last night and is so again this evening keeping enough energy in the Atlantic to develop further LP in an evolution reminiscent of a west-based negative NAO. The 12Z GFS and GEM OP runs continue to pursue very different evolutions even at T+180. The rainfall numbers continue to suggest southern and western Britain will bear the brunt of the weekend deluges.