Its not astonishing at all to suggest that we could be in the same pattern in 5 weeks; the pattern we are entering can take an awful lot of shifting and with the QBO, MJO, forecasted jet pattern all supportive of maintaining this status quo, you can see why such a mild January is being anticipated by some. You can't compare this outlook with other patterns and say 'ah well it is FI and it might change'. This set-up has a big margin for error in terms of synoptic pressure placement and it is clear where we are headed.