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Somerset Squall
Member Since 22 Oct 2004Offline Last Active Today, 06:13
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- Member Title Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2012)
- Age 23 years old
- Birthday August 29, 1988
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Gender
Male
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Location
Muchelney, Somerset Levels, Southwest England. 8m asl
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Interests
music, weather, environmental management, archaeology, tropical cyclones (as you've probably guessed XD)
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Weather Preferences
Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
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Typhoon Sanvu
21 May 2012 - 11:31
The third tropical depression of the West Pacific season has formed near Guam. 03W has the characteristics of a monsoon depression, with a broad cyclonic gyre with many smaller circulations rotating within it. Sea temperatures are warm and the upper level environment supports intensification, butvthe broad nature of TD 03W means it will probably be slow to strengthen. The depression is currently heading northwestwards but is forecast to curve north them northeast as the steering ridge to the north weakens due to troughing.
Major Hurricane Bud
21 May 2012 - 06:12
Invest 92E that has been developing for about a week now in the eastern half of the East Pacific basin has finally become tropical depression. Intensity is 30kts. 02E is expected to strengthen, but slowly at first. The majority of the convection currently resides west of the LLC due to shear. However, the shear is expected to ease somewhat over the coming days allowing 02E to at least gradually strengthen. NHC expect 02E to become a hurricane in the coming days, and most of the models have been keen on making this system a hurricane too.
02E is currently moving west-northwestwards, but unlike the majority of East Pacific TC's, this motion is not expected to last. Troughing coming in towards the west coast of the USA is expected to break down ridging to the north (which usually steers storms west-northwestwards) and send 02E northwards, then northeastwards. Timing of the turn is uncertain, but it looks like Mexico could have a landfalling hurricane later in the week, so 02E certainly needs watching.
02E is currently moving west-northwestwards, but unlike the majority of East Pacific TC's, this motion is not expected to last. Troughing coming in towards the west coast of the USA is expected to break down ridging to the north (which usually steers storms west-northwestwards) and send 02E northwards, then northeastwards. Timing of the turn is uncertain, but it looks like Mexico could have a landfalling hurricane later in the week, so 02E certainly needs watching.
Tropical Storm Alberto
19 May 2012 - 20:13
Invest 93L has become Tropical Storm Alberto, the first storm of the Atlantic Season, except, the season hasn't officially started. I think this may be the first time in recorded history that both the Atlantic and East Pacific have started early in the same year.
A trough split over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream allowing the resultant small system to organise rapidly in a favourable upper level environment. Invest 93L was only tagged today, but it's small size and the warm gulf stream waters have allowed Alberto to form pretty rapidly. Initial intensity is 40kts. Alberto is moving very slowly southwestwards, and little motion is expected for the next 24hrs. Thereafter, a trough is expected to pick up Alberto and potentially send the storm onshore; the place at highest risk is North Carolina. There is still some uncertainty.
As long as Alberto remains over the Gulf Stream, the storm should intensify. Waters near the coast however, are significantly cooler. Any increase in shear could harm Alberto as the storm is very small and therefore vunerable to strong upper level winds.
A trough split over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream allowing the resultant small system to organise rapidly in a favourable upper level environment. Invest 93L was only tagged today, but it's small size and the warm gulf stream waters have allowed Alberto to form pretty rapidly. Initial intensity is 40kts. Alberto is moving very slowly southwestwards, and little motion is expected for the next 24hrs. Thereafter, a trough is expected to pick up Alberto and potentially send the storm onshore; the place at highest risk is North Carolina. There is still some uncertainty.
As long as Alberto remains over the Gulf Stream, the storm should intensify. Waters near the coast however, are significantly cooler. Any increase in shear could harm Alberto as the storm is very small and therefore vunerable to strong upper level winds.
Quiet Times In The Tropics
15 May 2012 - 18:28
Interesting little section by Jeff Masters on Wunderblog:
Quote
Earth's longest tropical storm-free period in at least 70 years
The formation of Aletta ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world. According to the UK Met Office, the 41-day period storm-less period is the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years. The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944. Prior to Aletta, the last tropical storm on the planet was Tropical Storm Daphne in the South Pacific, which dissipated 06 UTC April 3, 2012. April is usually is the quietest month globally for tropical cyclones. The long storm-less period comes in the midst of a very quiet two-year period of global tropical cyclone activity. According to Dr. Ryan Maue, who specializes in tracking global tropical cyclone activity, 2010 and 2011 saw a total of 146 global tropical cyclones--the lowest two-year total since satellite observations began in 1970. The 24-month period April 2010 - March 2012 had 141 global tropical storms, which is also a record low. That's quite a turnaround from 2004 - 2005, which saw near-record high levels of global tropical cyclone activity.
The formation of Aletta ends a 41-day streak without a tropical storm anywhere in the world. According to the UK Met Office, the 41-day period storm-less period is the longest span Earth has gone without a tropical storm in at least 70 years. The last time there were as many as 38 consecutive storm-less days was in 1944. Prior to Aletta, the last tropical storm on the planet was Tropical Storm Daphne in the South Pacific, which dissipated 06 UTC April 3, 2012. April is usually is the quietest month globally for tropical cyclones. The long storm-less period comes in the midst of a very quiet two-year period of global tropical cyclone activity. According to Dr. Ryan Maue, who specializes in tracking global tropical cyclone activity, 2010 and 2011 saw a total of 146 global tropical cyclones--the lowest two-year total since satellite observations began in 1970. The 24-month period April 2010 - March 2012 had 141 global tropical storms, which is also a record low. That's quite a turnaround from 2004 - 2005, which saw near-record high levels of global tropical cyclone activity.
Tropical Storm Aletta
14 May 2012 - 18:40
The first tropical depression of the 2012 East Pacific season has formed one day ahead of the official start to the season. 01E is located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is gradually pushing west-northwestwards. 01E consists of a well defined LLC with some concentrated, deep convection but little banding. Intensity is currently 30kts. Shear is low and waters warm, so 01E is expected to become a tropical storm. However, in about 36hrs time, 01E is expected to run into some high shear and decreasing sea temps which is forecast to destroy the cyclone quite quickly. 01E shouldn't affect land.
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