I’d be in agreement and have more confidence if this was a proper Euro high cantered over Germany for example, which is what was showing 5 days ago. This is now far from the case. We have a compressed high centred over France with a negatively tilted low to the North, and the low out west is now further away than what was previously the case, losing its influence further on this setup. It might well be that many still get 20c, but this is now far from a UK wide spell, and we have ended up on a knife edge in keeping the heat to the South. I still think it will go down to the wire for the Midlands, North and East. If you get a northerly on the East coast, it’s a big cool down regardless of upper air temperature. I’ve seen the models go down to the wire so many times in risky setups like these, and all the time with storms and snowy setups, especially slider low events. One adjustment of a couple of hundred miles is not massive range for model output, but it’s an enormous difference for this part of the world.