Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Jackfrost

Members
  • Posts

    1,043
  • Joined

  • Last visited

2 Followers

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Nelson, Caerphilly County, 175m ASL

Recent Profile Visitors

7,094 profile views

Jackfrost's Achievements

Aficionado

Aficionado (7/14)

  • Twenty years in Rare
  • Dedicated
  • Week One Done
  • One Month Later
  • Five years in

Recent Badges

689

Reputation

  1. andymusic Sadly I've been burnt too many times over the years to allow myself "good feelings" about snow in this country! My hunch is that what we'll see tomorrow is rain on the coast, periods of more persistent rain, sleet and wet snow further inland with some slushy deposits here and there, and significant settling only on genuine high ground (above ~250-300m).
  2. The prospect of some significant falls here, and not just on highest ground: I'm sceptical as it's still on the wrong side of marginal for most, but it's that margin which will make tomorrow's weather-watching worthwhile.
  3. Do we have the rarest of rarities - a snow scenario moving in our favour the closer it gets, instead of away from it? As of now I'm a bit reluctant to guess at settling and depths as the whole thing is still firming up and is highly marginal, but I'd expect at the very least some persistent falling wet snow on Friday. Areas most likely to see this would be the Valleys, Mid and inland North Wales.
  4. It does seem early in the season to be talking about a potential significant snowfall event, but the models are showing (and forecasters are increasingly saying) what they are! Some caveats do apply, not least the fact that countless times we've been burnt much later in the season in similar set-ups and with SSTs lower than they currently are, but, in our favour, things are quite synoptically different this month compared to previous years. Also, inland south and mid Wales tend to benefit more than the rest of southern Britain in these low-bumping-against-cold scenarios. An interesting week ahead.
  5. Just wanted to add to this, as the post got quite a few likes: Please don't take my "2-10 cm over a wide area" remark as gospel. As I said, showers are hard to forecast, there will be local variation, the higher you go the more favourable, and there'll likely be fewer of those showers in southeast Wales in the lee of the Brecon Beacons. Still, showers over a fairly wide area with settling due to temperatures just below zero is likely.
  6. Interesting. Let's see if it's still there this time tomorrow! Whether or not it does snow on Friday, the weekend looks like a bit of a no man's land with neither high or low pressure dominating over Wales. One thing seems more and more likely, and that's the Atlantic is not about to come barrelling its way back as was thought previously.
  7. I think so, yes, but touch-and-go as to whether it's for ice with snow showers the contributing factor, or for snow as the main reason for the warning.
  8. Tomorrow night and into Wednesday looks promising for most of Wales, away from immediate coasts and above ~100 m. Hard to predict accumulations due to the nature of showers, but 2-10 cm over a wide area, with local variations, seems reasonable.
  9. Given the GFS's unreliability of late, can we disregard what's showing in the latest run? Because if not, that's a pretty significant snow event in Ireland, Wales and southern England moving into the reliable.
  10. There's a fair bit of shower activity moving down the Irish Sea that's now starting to make contact with the coast. Crucially for us further south and east, as of now it's holding itself together and not disintegrating. As the low over us is so slack you can expect it to be a good few hours until the showers reach southeast Wales, if they do at all. Still?! You really lucked out tonight.
  11. Not at all jealous of you lot slightly to my south! It's amazing to see Cilfynydd white and Abercynon green... there's only a few hundred metres between them. Suppose I can't really complain though, as the northern Valleys almost always do better for snow with the rain/snow line usually somewhere between Treforest and Cilfynydd as you drive up the A470. That said, as the line of snow was clearing, the northern edge clipped the Abercynon and Nelson areas for a bit, so we have that sugary dusting you get when it's well below zero and settles on impact. The ice later this morning will be lethal. I've also got my eye on what's currently over Cardigan Bay and moving southeastwards. Not convinced it'll survive the high ground, but we'll see.
  12. Being snowed in in Cwm-Pen-Ôl with the cast of High Hopes would be heaven or hell, depending on your outlook. Fochriw, the village in the opening credits, is a unique place: very isolated and bleak in winter, but in the best way. Anyway, there are now more opportunities for snow in Wales coming into the reliable than there were this time yesterday. It's all far from certain but chances are rising.
  13. Don't want to excite anybody unnecessarily, but there are currently showers forming in the Bristol Channel. I'm not convinced they'll affect anywhere other than the VoG based on the current wind direction, but it's worth keeping an eye on if you're on the NW night shift. This was the set-up that delivered a surprise heavy fall to the Valleys on the night of 17/12/09.
  14. Latest GFS is a snowy old run (well, relatively speaking compared to previous runs) for Wales. A signal for snow showers across Wales this weekend, and then a feature moving in from the southwest late on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the ICON brings snow into south Wales from the south on Wednesday. Two things about this: it goes without saying that at this range it's subject to corrections; and if south Wales does find itself on the northern edge of the feature (as is currently shown, with the main thrust across southern England), you can all but guarantee that marginality won't be an issue, right down to the coast. The cold is the main talking point here tonight, feels genuinely quite intense and there's already a heavy frost. -5.2° this morning, I'm expecting tonight to possibly be colder. Also, look at all those showers streaming into north and northeast Wales! Anyone from the area to confirm what they're falling as? The Netweather radar shows them as rain and sleet away from high ground, but I know it's not fully accurate.
  15. Thanks for sharing those 2010 memories, everyone. Unfortunately I wasn't around to experience 1981-82, and I'm too young to have any memories of Feb. '96, so that third week of Dec. 2010 is my most perfect winter memory*. The deep snow cover, the metre-long icicles, the crystal blue skies, walking around town late at night in minus double-digit temperatures while the Christmas lights shone... it was close to nirvana. Is anyone aware of an archive of radar captures going back that far? I'd love to revisit it. *Storm Emma is a close second: a greater amount of snow fell from that, but it was powdery and drifted heavily which left some areas bare. Also, instead of a run of crystal-clear days, it was grey and murky and it all started melting after three days.
×
×
  • Create New...