Crocodile23

Much weaker.

Can you give the link that contains the WMO definition? Thanks.

Sure, on a first level, but on a deeper level, ultimately, everything are being driven by temperature(temperature gradients).

Hi again and sorry for another off topic post. I want to ask from where do you obtain these GRIB2 files you are talking about. I know this page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/index.shtml.upgrade And from there, there is this page for example: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/ Where you can download what you want(seemingly). But i don't get it how exactly and where exactly to go and what means what. So for example if i want the 0.25 grid files of the new GFS for a grid of 40° to 45° north, 10° to 15° east and for let's say geopotential heights of 500 hPa, where do i have to go to download them? Can you also explain from where i can obtain these 3 different formats (a,b full)? Many thanks in advance!

Isn't the 18z runs of both GFS and the new GFS(parallel) after +200, the pattern that OPI predicts for the winter?

Thanks but what about this:

Link please? Links please? No i guess you misunderstood me. I'm not seeking for the forecasts archive, but for the actual(observed) archive of the atmosphere for a historical time e.g 03 February 1912 (12Z). And this is for learning/comparing/statistics etc purposes so there is a point.

They are numerical prediction models. I.e they are just solvers of equations of motion of the atmosphere. I want to ask if there is any archive of GFS or ECMWF about the stratosphere(multiple layers, 5,10,20,30 etc hPa)? Like the ones here but for the past years: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?var=HGT&lev=10mb http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

I always wanted to ask this question to understand this wonderful thread even more. Perhaps it's a trivial or silly question but nevertheless i have to ask.... Stratosphere, troposphere, surface doesn't matter the models have their D+1, D+2, D+8, D+9..... etc predictions with some accuracy. First question i have to ask is: Does the D+X prediction of a model of a stratospheric map(e.g 10 hPa heights) has more predictive skill than a D+X of a tropospheric variable like for example 500 hPa(mbar) heights? Because if they have the same, then stratospheric-based forecasting has the same value as tropospheric one and has no actual advantage. Or maybe it has anyway? Because since the stratospheric results in the space we live, low troposphere, are becoming apparent many days after(i mean a stratospheric pattern will lead to a tropospheric one some or many days later), then even IF D+6 for example has the same predictive skill for 50 hPa and 500 hPa, then forecasting(for long-range of course) via 50 hPa has the advantage to know the tropospheric synoptic end result(approximately of course) some 5-6 days after. Am i mistaken in the last conclusion? Other than that, how does it really go in the aspect of stratosphere-troposphere interaction and about which "prevails"? I.e: a certain stratospheric pattern at some time, will lead to a certain(with small probable diversities of course) synoptic tropospheric pattern. Right or this is not completely correct and it depends heavily on the tropospheric circulation also? What i mean more clearly: Is looking at a map of stratosphere and forecasting the evolution of the troposphere, solid enough? Or we need to see the tropospheric map also and combine the stratospheric-tropospheric maps to forecast the synoptic evolution? I.e: If we just look at a stratospheric map and ignore the troposphere, is there any possibility that a certain feature of the troposphere(e.g a extratropical cyclone, a surface anticyclone(that does not appear in stratospheric maps), a tropical cyclone, etc) to completely destroy our synoptic forecast and lead to a completely different synoptic result from our prediction? With other words, are there sometimes features of the troposphere(like a surface low deepening too much over a warm sea) that will "lead" the stratosphere? Long term(in months scale-climate) we know this happens with snow extent, sea ice cover, great mountain ranges like Rocky mountains and Himalayas, etc, that effect strongly the stratospheric circulation, but what about short-term(scales of days or weeks-weather)? Can a prediction of a map in the stratosphere that one says oh look this will definitely evolve this way after 10 days, be actually "destroyed" and a tropospheric event to lead the stratosphere to behave completely differently?

What is CV, double MT and single MT means? Sorry if this had been explained earlier in this topic.

Is this something similar to the OPI pattern? The one that predicts for the winter i mean. Perhaps we start to see the precursors of winter's circulation pattern?

More importantly, if someone's gut feeling proves to be correct over someone else's scientific work, it is still the scientific work that has won and deserves the credit. :-)

Did they publish their paper in English somewhere?

I think yesterday, it wasn't saying tomorrow. It said soon, next week or something like that. Anyway just be patient. Tomorrow we will have the prediction.

Hmm.... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733 Fewer Storms for Ireland, United Kingdom and FranceAnother aspect of the upcoming winter season is that large and widespread damaging wind events are expected to be less common than last winter, which featured several noteworthy storms that caused damage from the British Isles into northern Europe. While occasional shots of cold air will send temperatures tumbling across Ireland, the United Kingdom and France early in the winter, a persistent southerly flow caused by storms tracking near and north of Scotland will often result in near- to above-normal temperatures. Fewer storms tracking across the United Kingdom and Ireland into northern Europe will lead to below-normal precipitation overall for the winter season, following the wettest winter on record across the United Kingdom last year.