P.K.

El Nino looks to me to have been weakening a little recently. It may have already peaked.

That could have been bad, good thing it missed them as the tornado was getting pretty strong by that point (T3/4 or so).

In what way is this unusual? This area should be active this season given the current ENSO conditions.

Yes it will be upgraded at 2100 GMT. 30kts, 1012hPa.

I'm not entirely sure what happened there. At 1200 GMT RSMC Tokyo took it down from 90kts to 85kts and increased the pressure from 940 to 960hPa, but the JTWC increased it from 115 to 125kts while it was moving overland. I haven't seen any Dvorak estimates which support this higher intensity. Here is the update you were waiting to see, down to 75kts now: RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 13.6N 122.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 15.5N 118.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 291800UTC 16.1N 113.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 301800UTC 16.6N 110.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT =

Exactly, strongest since Chaba in 2004 I think.

Down another 2hPa to 975hPa, winds still at 80kts. HURRICANE GORDON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 800 PM AST MON SEP 18 2006 ...GORDON MOVING FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... ...HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR THE AZORES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AZORES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 880 MILES...1415 KM...WEST OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... GORDON WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.9 N...44.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

The TD is now TS Yagi. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0614.html

The NW Pacific is a ten minute basin. The only one minute basins are the CN Pacific, NE Pacific, and N Atlantic. Monica was 135kts, the pressure is not disputed. The unofficial Dvorak gave an estimate of 879hPa, the BoM gave 905hPa. The BoM are official so 905hPa it was. Tip reached 140kts. As above Monica was 5kts weaker than Tip. Anyone can edit that, I put official data in and people just changed it. I think that is why it says the pressure is disputed. I saw Dvorak estimates as high as 7.5 for Monica. The pressure estimates for the Dvorak technique are only estimates for that windspeed with a set TC size and set background pressure so I really wouldn't use them.

Shanshan is now a 70kt typhoon with an estimated central pressure of 965hPa. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 19.4N 132.4E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 20.5N 130.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 131800UTC 21.2N 128.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 141800UTC 22.3N 126.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT

I've just checked and that SHIPs run is still based on the BAMM forecast and not the official forecast so the next run will be far more helpful.

It may well have been made up by someone and added to a real news article report so I'd assume the island was completely free of people. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 22.8N 160.0E GOOD MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST 30KT 280NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 24.4N 154.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 031800UTC 26.0N 151.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 041800UTC 28.0N 147.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT

Think the reference is to 1967. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/yohou/typhoon/data/T6727.png

From what I've read a Frenchman decided to stay on the island at a height of only about 8m and take observations although the ones on the link given will be from automatic equipment.

This is more of a threat to Japan, it will not hit Mexico. Technically it is not called a supertyphoon at all. Unofficially the JTWC refer to these as supertyphoons, I think they may also refer to hurricanes of sufficient strength as superhurricanes as well. 934.0hPa reported by Wake Island.