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Midlands Ice Age

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Midlands Ice Age last won the day on November 10 2023

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    Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
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    Veteran who can just remember the winter of 1947 as well as 1963.
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  1. WYW.. Thanks for the above, but I was replying to Pennines note about whether the 'weather' will be the same over the next few years, and not LONG TERM climate change. HIs note suggested that the current situation was here for.... (ever?, he mentioned 10 years) due to the current 'stuck' situation. I was pointing out that natural climate change will be effective a long time before your 30 year averages for CC become effective. I was simply pointing out that , despite CC, that there will still be a large variation in 'regional' temperatures in exactly the same way as there always have been, with areas below the average values as well as those above, caused by the normal rhythms of changeable 'weather' and not climate. I was deliberately talking about the many different regions within earth's atmosphere., not talking about the global climate. 'Weather' changes will not cease with Climate Change. MIA
  2. PTFD.. I agree with your general statements above... But do not forget the other 'unknowns' which are inherent in our climate. That is the variability of 'natural' forcings. There two things need to be considered 1) The sigma variation from the usual climate normal. Best understood as 1 in a xxx year events by most people. 2) It automatically means that variations in climate have always occured and they have always been around. The natural elements of climate change have not become extinct. I accept that these events may well be becoming a bit more frequent in recent years .. For example - If you simply look at the CET data, the 1730 decade saw over a 1.2C degree increase in temperature compared to decades both before and after until about 50 years ago. That was long before the major forcing increases believed to be being caused by CO2. It, I believe, would have been caused by some sort of natural climate change. Perhaps with lows 'stalling' in similar positions to those we currently are enjoying so much right now.!!! Fierce wind storms swept the UK during the period of the early 1720's. I believe that the earth's natural climate variability has not yet been completely taken over by other new forcings, just yet. We will have to wait and see what happens and then analyse the data. MIA
  3. Although I formerly closed my output to this thread 8 days ago, I thought it worthwhile coming back for a further update as the sea ice continues to 'misbehave' itself and will not fall in extent the way it should!!! I will start off by showing the Masie extent graph - As you can see, it is refusing to go down this year. In fact the last 3 days (after an increase of +108K Km2) have hovered just below my arbitrary 15M Km2 line (latest at 14,986K Km2). The last 3 days have in fact been rounded up to 15M |KM2, but I do not count those!! The recent events have now put a gap of 800.000 KM2 between it and its challenger (2022-23) for much of the season, and is way above average for the time of year. As a result of a recently released paper and post (video on the paper) on the changing and reducing AMOC effect and its predictions for its effects on Arctic ice and Northern Hemisphere weather in general (link below, and see the forum on Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures if the link does not work') - I thought I would show a few graphs of the regions it highlights as being prone to increases in view of a reduced inflow from the Atlantic (the AMOC effect) into the Arctic region - 1) Barents 2) Greenland Baltic 3) Bering - 4) SOO - As can be seen all have spent sometime above the 10 year highs within the last 4 weeks as the melt season started, and all are currently running very high. In fact the Barents is quite remarkable that it has grown by around 200K KM2 in the last 2weeks and it is this that has kept the record high extents ongoing. Even the Bering is still increasing, albeit from a lower base. I have included this chart from the ASIF to make a final point. One of the few years that has shown a similar effect was 2012 where the increases carried on for a further week, before starting to fall. Now the downside of all this is that 2012 went on to become the lowest year so far recorded, That however was caused by the very unusual weather and atmospheric situation which followed in July and August (the GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone) which destroyed a lot of the outlaying ice. So what will happen? Is this new paper relevant to the Arctic sea ice? I have assumed that, so far, most of the unscripted changes were due to the ENSO/PDO and perhaps the Hunga Tunga volcano, but perhaps we must also add in the changing AMOC. Do we in fact have a new driver in the race to record the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE) -a method of describing an ice free Arctic. Or perhaps this positive 'twist' might delay the event even further out in time. The other interesting thing about this is that potentially the weather we are seeing 'at home' is also being affected by the changes in the Arctic. Next episode?.... MIA
  4. Sundog.. I found this very interesting.. Thanks for the info. I will probably also transfer this paper to the N H snow and ice thread, where I will display all the latest extent and area charts for the relevant Arctic regions. It is incredible how they fit the output scenario that the paper predicted. As you will know If you have been reading the above thread, I have been reporting that the sea ice in the Arctic has not been following the trend of the climate models over the last few years (3 - 5 possibly) not very well at all), and I have reported on great detail on this and have at times had discussions with @WestYorksWeather on why this may be occuring. I had picked up the increased trend for the ice increases in exactly the areas specified (Barents, Kara in the western Arctic) and I have also picked up the recent increases in the Eastern Arctic waters (Pacific - Bering and the SOO) which this paper also proposes will show an increased tendency to grow ice under their modelled output. I have 3 real points to make - 1) the slow down effect of the AMOC is real. It has been measured in 3 or 4 different places now, across the Atlantic. It is the main driver for heat transfer across the equator from south to north. It has not been investigated (or even included) by the climate models until perhaps very recently (The Rel 6 IPCC paper does not show that it has any major impacts from it, eg). Certainly 5 years ago it was not counted as a real driver of climate change - as it was assumed that it had no net world wide climate temperature change. It is now being suggested that it may well do by virtue of the 'albedo' and the other impacts discussed above on the atmospheric temperature profile/change resulting from the changes in the ocean currents. It is also interesting to note that they modelled the opposite effect in the southern hemisphere.... SO the CC overall 'net' assumption impact on temperature may be valid, but it would involve much detail weather characteristic event differences being forecast for both hemispheres. 2) This is just one model - there are around a dozen out there. They say that they will extend their work into others. I will be interested to see if they show the same trends. 3) I have been thinking (In common with many others) about the changes of weather being experienced most notably in the western Atlantic. This 'different' weather is not exclusive to Europe though. Odd weather is also being reported in North America (resulting in a 10 year low in the Great Lakes ice), and also in the Pacific where sea ice levels are at a 10 year high for this time in the season.. @Mattyh and @KirkaldyWeather have also been 'hard at it' Also in Barents and the Greenland Oceans (+even Baltic) where very unusual sea ice late increases in trend are even now still occuring,- despite the melt season being over 2 weeks old now. My feeling on all this is that the Arctic Polar Vortex has been very weak this year at the tropospheric level, and where it has been mainly dominated by weak 'flat' areas of high pressure. (when compared to a raging PV.) This HP has in turn prevented deep low pressure areas from entering the polar regions from the Atlantic, and also the lack of real high pressure has prevented a strong enough reversion of the normal westerly flow across the sub Arctic regions (widespread easterlies). This combined event has for us (for our atlantic areas - not looked at other regions) led to the southerly tracking jet stream for most of the winter (since last July actually), being forced by the weak polar vortex over Canada pumping low pressure zones across the Atlantic , and has also allowed the 'Iberian heights' to gain control for some spells, whenever the jet stream weakened at all. I had intended giving my own interpretation of our current climate, and this paper seems to give my thoughts at least some background for being correct. I guess the major question is - what is it that can break us out of the current relentless westerly low pressures, which always seem to stall over or just to the west of us? My guess is that it will take a change of some sort in the Arctic to either push these depression through, and then we can get a 'reset'; or perhaps weaken sufficiently to enable the southern heights to take over. Perhaps the 'final warming' event or we just drift into a summer pattern, with high pressure nosing in from the south. Over to the NH snow and ice forum for me. !!! MIA
  5. I was wondering where DRL had gone to just the other day... Now I know Welcome (back) , Have missed your insights. MIA
  6. I see there is a weather warning out now from yesterday until sunday. They now expect prolonged rainfall with up to 15mms per hour rates in some places. I was a frequent visitor there in winter for quite a while and I can only remember one had weather like this. Be interesting to hear from you as it gets going. MIA
  7. After falls in Masie sea ice extent of 51K, and today 101K Km2, leaving the ice extent at 14,952K Km2 , it looks as if the days of exceeding 15Mm2 have now ended at 17. It is still the highest for 10 years and the actual ice increase from minimum last sept to the max was amongst the highest. Attached are some graphs for both extent and area from the ASIF to complete this years growth season. I believe that we are now into the northern hemisphere melt season , so I will hopefully be back in September for the 2024/2025 winter growth season. Growth has sure kept us on our toes this year. ... and for Stravaiger.. yes it sure has been a good year and the ice around Svalbard (also now reaching Bear Isle again) has resulted in the Central Arctic basin(CAB) ice extent becoming totally full in the last couple of weeks. MIA
  8. Table above updated to yesterday with the 9th continuous day now over 15.0M. Today's value was 15,108K KM2 despite a 56K KM2 drop in the SOO, since more generally many small increases were recorded in other sea areas. The increase in extent now rivals those of the early teens and exceed those of 2011 and 2009 in the early periods. I have details below of this in a form of a packed chart of Arctic ice extent as shown from the NSIDC, which is being updated by the ASIF - It needs to be expanded to see the detail, and it is recorded for Mar 11th but but clearly indicates the current status. Arctic ice area is still also showing increases - now also later then the normal freeze end date Whilst temperatures above 80 degrees and 66.5 degrees north have now fallen to average for the first time really this year. MIA
  9. This is getting stupid now with another century increase on Masie extent to a new high for the year of 15,178K Km2. This is no less than 14 days since the ASIF called a maximum for the year. It is now called a faux max apparently. We are def seeing something odd at the end of the freeze season. Today's events showed large gains in Bering and Barents Oceans. The updated 15M table follows - MIA
  10. Yet another surprising update.. The last 4 days have seen the sea ice extent on Masie actually increase to over 15M Km2. This mornings NSIDC predict another increase today to possibly yet another new high. The remarkable thing is that - 1) the experts on the ASIF have already called called the end of the extent refreeze season back 2 weeks ago. 2) there seems to be little weather difference to cause these large deviations 3) the temperature of the Arctic DMI (above 80 degrees) is still rising (since Mar1st) and the Northern hemisphere temperatures are still 1 degree above normal. 4) Arctic 'area' is still (steadily?) increasing although normally we should just have started to fall by now - (thanks to the ASIF) and for extent we have - Both 'area' and extent are in the mid teens in terms of the last 18 years, and are now challenging some of the early year dates. All this after an unexpected drop in late February. Why is this happening? Well unless the 'volume' numbers start to increase again I am not certain it is a long term feature change. And my thoughts (for what they are worth?) is that it definitely has some thing to do with the ENSO and the long (3 year?) La Nina pattern set up prior to last summer. It seems as though this pattern still is persisting in the Arctic, even though it has been over-ridden by a large El NIno over the last 9 months for the rest of us. It is also noteworthy that the ENSO forecasts now predict a fall back into neutral of even a further La Nina. The second of my thoughts on the subject are that we have this year seen a 'difference' in the weather patterns across the northern hemisphere with much colder air over 'Asia' , whilst much warmer air (compared to the last 10 years) has been sitting over the N American continent. This has caused the following in terms of ice production - whilst the much smaller Labrador Straits have virtually no ice - The differences are enormous!! Also we have not seen these conditions with large Asian ice conditions for about 10 years. Is this why the sea ice in the last 10 years has been subsiding, since we do seem to have increased more recently, and especially now with this totally unexplained increase? And finally another impact on short term ice (according to day to day satellites) is (I believe) the recently noticed impacts of thin sea ice at the edge of the pack been overridden by the sea. producing incorrectly low ice numbers at times. These, even now. appear to be producing the rapid increases in ice 'accumulations' despite it being beyond the date of refreeze. As we seem to be still increasing in ice for the moment , I will continue to report a little longer into the melt season this year as I feel it is worthwhile that these events are reported somewhere so that these can improve the more long term Arctic forecasting. To show the effects of the increase I will be updating the long-term 15M KM2 table that I started recently in a later review. MIA
  11. Well now we do!!!!! A HUGE (just about unexpected - see above) exceptional increase of (+237K) takes the Masie sea ice extent total to a season's high of 15,114K Km2. Barents was the major driver with a sudden spurt of 90K KM2 . Other areas such as Bering (+48K), SOO (+29k), and Baltic (+22K) suddenly leapt into life again after a dormant 3 or 4 days. One may ask why this has occurred when we are supposedly past the point at which extent has not increased any further, over the last 8 years. It did however increase in many years prior to 2014!! Just perhaps...... ? (look at my 15M charts above). However I looked at the 'mechanism' of the increase in more detail and my main thought is that we have seen the same effect I have identified on 2 or 3 occasions so far this season... - That of sea salty water laying on top of the ice, and this, I believe, confuses the satellite recording data. I believe that the ice has been still there all the time and that it still will then show up again after the water either drains or perhaps the surface refreezes. MIA's theory strikes again.. It will be more interesting to see if it is (as is possible) a straight satellite error in which case it will have a large drop again tomorrow. The temperature (after its reduction after the last few days) has again risen so that really has had no direct impact. (warmer temps have caused more ice on a few occasions!!!) There is still life in the Arctic. The ASIF forum has indicated that this season has seen about a 5% increase in ice growth this year compared to the 2010 era, with the last 3 seasons showing an increase compared to the ongoing trend lines. This trend coincides with the onset of La Nina. Now we are in an El Nino, so lets await the summer melt season with interest. Could well be back again if this totally unusual and surprising freezing season continues on its merry way. MIA
  12. johncam Yep, almost certainly we have passed the largest extent date for this year on the 29th Feb. After the previous high of 15,088K 3 days earlier, we immediately had a large drop of 169K then followed by 3 smaller falls. This reduction took the level down to 14,737K (well below the 'magic' 15M figure I was monitoring). Since then the ice has been increasing slowly on average after an initial steep rise of +189k put us within reach of the magic marker of 15M again. But it failed to cross the boundary. So looking unlikely now that we will create a new maximum (Or even exceed 15M again), but it could well have happened around 10 years previously - when freezing stalled at these levels for about 2 -3 weeks before dropping - so we never know. We are now in the gap between the end of 'extent' increases, but 'area' is likely to continue to increase for the next 6 days. NSIDC 'area' is indeed showing late increases and we now have both area and extent appearing around 10 -12th in the tables for the last 20 years. (Graphs thanks to the ASIF). and for area, and and for extent. Laying snow is still just below average.. It is still not too late that we may see a sudden spurt in all these numbers as colder air has returned to the Arctic environments and northern hemisphere in general as shown both by the DMI (above 80 degrees), and also the ECM climate above 60 degree maps - An early look at the volume map shows that it has slipped into last position in the last few months, this despite much more ice in the eastern part of the globe. - Definitely caused by the slow ice season in the western sea areas. Nearly at the end of the ' growth ' season now, so my reports will slowly be dwindling... MIA
  13. Wow I had been watching the temps in Antarctica from afar after I had noticed the very rapid loss of sea ice from the area during the latter part of 2022, and first three quarters of 2023. I had observed the rapid recovery since then, and that was interesting to me.. But i hadn't realised exactly how cold it had become in the latest 3 months period.. It is certainly looking more likely as though the previous very warm 15 months were at least in part associated with the Hunga Tonga eruption. MIA
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