-
Posts
2,720 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Weathizard's Achievements
-
I wouldn’t, if you’d offered me this I would have bitten your hand off… That T96 chart isn’t great at all, no blocking to sustain the cold southward progression, that’s just the reality of where we are and pretending like that t96 chart is good will only lead to more disappointment really. There’s pretty much cross model agreement on the Greenland vortex powering up and an enormous high pressure cell to our south /sw, seen it countless winters and it’s a winter killer unfortunately, I know people don’t like to hear it but it’s reality.
-
Ah that old winter pattern, high pressure to our south, high pressure over Asia/Russia with a strong vortex over the GL/Canada area… seems to be a winter pattern that’s extremely common now, leads to Greece and sometimes even extreme parts of turkey getting lying snow, whilst the UK sits in mild air.
-
There’s a cold spell, 3c daytime temps is undoubtably cold but the reality is comparable to the charts we saw this time last week it’s a disappointing outcome, it’s as rare as hens teeth to see this kind of chart in January and to not even see lying snow in 80%+ of the country from this is extremely disappointing, I think what’s more disheartening is the way the Canadian vortex is returning with merciless aggression, looking at it at day 8-10 range it’s running rampant, which we all know it’s deep trouble if you want cold.
-
People are just commenting on what we see… this ECM run is woeful, if it showed screaming easterlies everyone would react to that so why shouldn’t people react when it shows dross? Its been a day of real mixed trends really, for me unless we see a wedge of heights sticking around to our north I struggle to see how the Atlantic doesn’t break through after some initial interaction with cold air.
-
Dreadful ECM and I’m afraid indicative of what I was saying earlier, with no blocking or forcing on the Atlantic there is only one way that day 6 chart is heading and it’s Atlantic in charge, albeit not your typical zonal pattern, unfortunately despite all the bizarre hemispheric patterns we’ve seen in the predictions it all looks a bit normal winter style if this ECM Is to be believed.
-
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Weathizard replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Problem being we have no blocking to sustain any southerly tracking lows, I did think the models blowing away that high on our side of the pond was overdone but alas it appears to have been called correct, in 48 hours we go from a big HP cell just to our west to a low pressure system. Any snow looks like being quite a transient affair regardless of who gets it, for me and obviously part of this speaks from an IMBY perspective I’m disappointed with the overall output given some of the locked in cold charts we had 3/4 days ago, just shows the difficulty of getting a locked in cold pattern when you have the sodding Atlantic Ocean on your doorstep. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Weathizard replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Dreadful GFS, law of the sod says it’s probably right, always the model you don’t want to be right ends up being the one. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Weathizard replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Weathizard replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yikes, been busy for a day or so and come back to extremely disappointing output, for my location anyway, the HLB is no more… looks like there is signs in the longer range of the vortex reforming over Canada as well, feels like a missed chance for a proper cold spell, albeit there could be some decent snow events for some before a quick melt. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Weathizard replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is such an exceptionally rare January winter chart, don’t worry about precip in this situation… there will be plenty of disturbances, especially for northern/exposed areas.