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Nick F
Member Since 10 Feb 2004Offline Last Active Yesterday, 22:03
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In Topic: Model Watch For Tour 4
23 May 2012 - 09:09
8-10 day ECM and GFS H500 comparisons and ECM ensemble mean roughly agree on upper trough over Great Lakes and ridge into the US Pacific coast around beginging - so a strong NW flow over Nern mid-west states could favour some SLIGHT risks over central/northern Plains - but probably nothing more:
ecgfs00.gif 83.84K
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Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif 109.59K
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ecgfs00.gif 83.84K
6 downloads
Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif 109.59K
8 downloads
In Topic: Model Watch For Tour 3
23 May 2012 - 07:24
500mb and CAPE charts looking really good for Friday and Saturday for severe storms across the central/high Plains - as a trough arrives from the west. Unfortunately there does look to be a rather strong cap in place looking at CINH charts aswell - which could be a big hinderance both days.
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gfsUS_500_spd_96.gif 58.58K
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gfsUS_500_spd_72.gif 61.41K
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gfsUS_500_spd_96.gif 58.58K
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In Topic: Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 2
22 May 2012 - 23:15
Despite the pretty CAPE charts from GFS, rather uncertain whether convection can develop Weds - even along a sea breeze convergence zone inidicated for central spine of England - upper ridge present will hamper conevction by subsidence. Pennines probably most likely to squeeze something out, it can, could be rather potent.
Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 23/05/2012 00:10
Valid: 23/05/2012 06:00 - 24/05/2012 06:00
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...
convmap_230512.jpg 72.02K
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Synopsis
UK lies under an upper ridge of high pressure on Wednesday, with weak surface troughing developing inland across England as a result of solar heating and sea breeze convergence.
... N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and CENTRAL S ENGLAND...
Despite the presence of an upper ridge across the UK, sea breeze convergence towards the central spine of England, helped by lift of high ground, may force upwards increasingly moist airmass at surface to perhaps produce isolated heavy showers or even thunderstorms Weds afternoon. GFS builds several 100 j/kg CAPE by Weds afternoon, though feel it maybe over-doing dew points by a few degrees and thus CAPE projections. Nonetheless, DPs of 16C seem achievable, though its a big 'IF' whether uplift of this moist air along likely wind convergence zone can overcome the general subsidence of air under the ridge.
Current thinking is that, in addition to the wind convergence, uplift of higher ground, along with sufficient surface trigger temps, will be required to break out any convection - this would most likely occur over the Pennines of northern England. Though a few isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out across the Midlands and central southern England either ... where higher ground works together with wind convergence to force pockets of convection. Should heavy showers/storms develop, they are likely to be slow-moving ... bringing the risk of localised flooding.
Storm & Convective Forecast - Issued 23/05/2012 00:10
Valid: 23/05/2012 06:00 - 24/05/2012 06:00
Headline: ... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST...
convmap_230512.jpg 72.02K
31 downloadsSynopsis
UK lies under an upper ridge of high pressure on Wednesday, with weak surface troughing developing inland across England as a result of solar heating and sea breeze convergence.
... N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS and CENTRAL S ENGLAND...
Despite the presence of an upper ridge across the UK, sea breeze convergence towards the central spine of England, helped by lift of high ground, may force upwards increasingly moist airmass at surface to perhaps produce isolated heavy showers or even thunderstorms Weds afternoon. GFS builds several 100 j/kg CAPE by Weds afternoon, though feel it maybe over-doing dew points by a few degrees and thus CAPE projections. Nonetheless, DPs of 16C seem achievable, though its a big 'IF' whether uplift of this moist air along likely wind convergence zone can overcome the general subsidence of air under the ridge.
Current thinking is that, in addition to the wind convergence, uplift of higher ground, along with sufficient surface trigger temps, will be required to break out any convection - this would most likely occur over the Pennines of northern England. Though a few isolated showers or storms cannot be ruled out across the Midlands and central southern England either ... where higher ground works together with wind convergence to force pockets of convection. Should heavy showers/storms develop, they are likely to be slow-moving ... bringing the risk of localised flooding.
