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Nick F last won the day on February 10
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About Nick F
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Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.
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The chilly easterly switches to a milder south or southwesterly later next week - temperatures could reach the mid-teens. However, some springs see the weather flip to bring a reminder of winter. The recent SSW may make a flip to winter more possible, but by no means certain. View the full blog here
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A major sudden stratospheric warming began on Monday and this 3rd attempt at SSW this year in as many months looks to linger, with winds staying reversed for a while. This could eventually work down into the troposphere and affect weather patterns, increasing chances of high latitude blocking and colder weather in a few weeks or so. View the full blog here
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Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Nick F replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH - THURS 22 FEB 2024 Issued: 21/02/2024 21z to 23/02/2022 00z Strong wind gusts up to 45-60mph Isolated tornadoes lightning Hail Intense rain leading to flash-flooding Areas at risk of the above: S IRELAND, SW ENGLAND, S WALES, S MIDS, S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA An upper shortwave trough emanating from NE Canada will sharpen as it tracks east towards the British Isles at the base of deep upper low centred near Iceland. The shortwave trough will engage a cold front ahead of it during Thursday, as it catches up with it, causing a wave to develop and eventually a surface low along it across southern Britain during the morning. Tonight, a cold front moving in across the far west this evening is already producing strong convection embedded within heavy rain along front, with quite active lightning activity noted across W Ireland and W Scotland. Broken band of heavy rain, with embedded convection will continue to move east across Ireland, N. Ireland, northern and western areas of mainland UK overnight, perhaps with isolated lightning toward western coastal areas. A separate cold front to the south will develop a wave from the SW during Thursday morning, in response to the upper shortwave arriving and engaging from the west. So heavy convective pulses of rain are forecast to develop across SW England, Wales and into Midlands, likely organising into a squall line due to strong low-level jet stream and shortwave trough axis arriving parallel to cold front. The squall line crossing east over Midlands, S England and E Anglia. Strong convective gusts of 45-60mph may be produced by the squall line, along with intense rainfall leading to flash-flooding and perhaps hail. Also, should broken line segments develop in the squall line, there is an enhanced potential for a brief tornado in the gaps where winds back ahead of the squall. Issued by: Nick Finnis -
It's been very mild recently, especially across England and Wales, with temperatures well above average. However, a change is on the way to wetter, windier and eventually colder conditions. But temperatures returning to average rather than anything particularly cold or wintry. View the full blog here
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Tamara i haven't debunked GDSM and I have no issue of you and others passion and in depth explanantions of how it may affect weather patterns, but I do think it's used too much in isolation to make predictions at the expense of the caveats that other drivers are also driving the patterns. I'm sure the reactions from some of the more defensive replies I've seen on this forum would be different if we met face to face rather than online in front of a screen. Spent many a joyous time with Chinomaniac and Lorenzo sharing stuff on storm forecasting and listening to them with their knowledge of the strat face to face on storm chases and other meet ups, plenty of constructive debate. Also Thundery Wintry Showers, Blessed Weather plus others I've met in real life and had some great conversations. The web makes too many invincible, confrontational, rude, aloof, defensive and generally behave differently when challenged than if they talked face to face.
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Tamara That doesn't doesn't give the excuse to be condescending for those that question the GDSM tool. How can it be verified that AAM is implied in more likely being responsible in creating certain patterns and not other drivers? Which begs the question how can you and others be so confident? Again, it feels like closed doors to those to question the tool's validity for fear of being shot down because they don't have the hours of learning the subject and all the GDSM updates to hand to draw on to be able to question a prediction. I don't doubt that GDSM has It's place, but many of your posts seem mostly centred on the evolution of AAM to make predictions and not talking about other drivers and persuading the reader to disregard model guidance. Then when patterns do not evolve how you suggest, there is no admittance by you why it didn't play out how you predicted.
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Tamara It's all very well and admirable learning about and explaining GDSM and how works in the bigger picture of the global atmosphere. Many of us, including me, appreciate this alternative and unconventional way of forecasting. But it was the aggressiveness of the response from MattH when I dared questioned it's validity which was quite a shock to me and others. Because the subject is very technical to understand and explain it immediately puts a barrier to most questioning its validity because they aren't confident to put up a counter argument with lack of data access. If the GDSM is such a great tool, how come it's no longer available from NOAA. Or anywhere else. Met Office don't mention it publicly but do with all other drivers including MJO. There's no substantial evidence or papers that the theory is water tight and certainly with confidence can anyone attribute to AAM influencing weather patterns over N Atlantic. We can't question those who make these predictions using GDSM because we don't have to hand archive charts, verification stats and any access to such data. The thing that irks me is that predictions are made in MOD based on these GDSM / AAM plots but with little reference to other drivers, linked or not and we're told to ignore the model guidance. But, then there's never any follow up when these predictions don't come off as pescribed.
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