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Winter1981

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    Worcestershire (Near Pershore)
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  1. Hi All. Occasional poster but regular viewer here. Something that has been puzzling me this week, is why when pressure has been so relatively high across the UK, have we seen such large amount of cloud build up during the day and a fair few showers? If you were simply looking at the pressure charts you would be expecting fairly sunny weather and certainly dry weather. Clearly there must be other factors at play other than just air pressure. Any meteorological explanations or pointing to existing material on the site would be most welcome. Apologies if this post does not belong here, but could not find a good place to post it.
  2. Although the forecast was generally accurate yesterday i.e. hot, can someone please provide a meteorological explanation for why the detail was wrong i.e. the forecast for Worcestershire was hot and sunny. In reality in became cloudy by midday with a threatening sky and even big drops of rain. I have seen very little explanation of this, certainly not from the TV and radio broadcasters. As I say, an meteorological explanation would be great.
  3. Hi I have been a member for while, but am a bit of a 'lurker'. A general model related question: When we get a set up like the one forecast for the end of the week i.e. a low moving up from Iberia, would we expect to get frontal rainfall or convective rainfall (or both)? Most 'lows' I know of have a frontal rainfall band. However, i notice that in summer particularly, pressure is often low often continental Europe and they get convective thunderstorms rather than bands of rain. Clearly, if the low was to move in and there was showers/thunderstorms, some would get them some would not, which is very different from a band of cloud and rain moving in. Can anyone help? Thanks
  4. Hi I am also trying to understand the difference between the operational and control run. Paul - you say above that the operational run is the mean GFS run. However, if I look at the graphs there is separate line for the GFS mean and it is different to the operational. Confused! Thanks for your help
  5. This is my first time posting, so please be gentle with me. I have been lurking for a couple of years though reading the many informative posts. I would like to offer an observation on the summer of 2009, based on 2 weeks I recently spent on the beach in Cornwall (Lizard & Far West). Whilst I agree that on the whole, so far, the summer has not been particularly good, the actual weather I experienced from 17 - 31 July was in fact very good. Admittedly there were 2 days that were complete washouts (Sunday 26th & Wednesday 29th), but the remaining days on the beach were on the whole sunny & acceptably warm, and I have come back with a nice tan. I have been visiting this part of Cornwall for the last 6 years now and every year the weather near the coast has been good. Interestingly, the weather there is often better when the models do not look good. For example, much of the recent 2 weeks I was there were showery - but these showers did not, and often don't, fall on the coast - they fall on the moors in land. When frontal systems pass through, they often do so within 3- 4 hours, and the clearance behind is usually dramatic with clear blue skys. Conversely, when the general weather pattern is set fine, it can be a case of dodging the fog banks that form when the weather becomes hot & see breazes set in. So, in summary, yes the general weather pattern has not been great, but in my experience local conditions in Cornwall are often at odds with the general pattern, and they were in the last 2 weeks of July. I just think this should be borne in mind before we write off the summer from a holiday makers point of view. Hope this is Ok in this topic.
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