Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

So far this evening in the phasing north/south jet streams over the eastern USA:

UKMO Yes.

GEM/GFS No.

The impact this has will make the difference between a much lengthier cold spell or a cold snap. Without that its a struggle to sharpen up the troughing to the west and the energy will spill eastwards.

PS we shouldn't forget the NAVGEM, that says Yes to the phasing!

Edited January 11, 2016 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

So far this evening in the phasing north/south jet streams over the eastern USA:

UKMO Yes.

GEM/GFS No.

The impact this has will make the difference between a much lengthier cold spell or a cold snap. Without that its a struggle to sharpen up the troughing to the west and the energy will spill eastwards.

 

Nick whats your thoughts on the ukmo 144? I would suggest an easterly not long after

[Cloud 10]

12z NAVGEM goes for the easterly solution.

 

[Singularity]

Just checked out the updated MJO projections and you know what, I'm not convinced by that sudden loss of amplitude as it moves into phase 1 - though I'm not in a position to rule it out. Basically it's another factor that could produce interesting changes should the MJO stay amplified for longer.
Not the best of times for UKME to be absent from the plots as that would provide some clues given its more amplified output from as early as +96 hours.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

12z NAVGEM goes for the easterly solution.

 

Thats EXACTLY what im thinking ukmo would lead to

[northwestsnow]

Prayer mats out again

IF ecm looks anything like navgas/ukmo at 144 we could be seeing ANOTHER dramtic turnaround!!!

Phew need to stop typing for a minute theres smoke coming off the keyboard!!!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nick whats your thoughts on the ukmo 144? I would suggest an easterly not long after

No comment till after the ECM! lol Even if that backs the UKMO we need the GFS to move quickly in its 18hrs run.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Just checked out the updated MJO projections and you know what, I'm not convinced by that sudden loss of amplitude as it moves into phase 1 - though I'm not in a position to rule it out. Basically it's another factor that could produce interesting changes should the MJO stay amplified for longer.
Not the best of times for UKME to be absent from the plots as that would provide some clues given its more amplified output from as early as +96 hours.

Lol at the GEFS it keeps trying so hard to put us into phase 8 with earlier updates showing us sticking in phase 8 for a bit while other quickly descended to phase 1 then neutral.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

No comment till after the ECM! lol Even if that backs the UKMO we need the GFS to move quickly in its 18hrs run.

Oh if only we could coax the ECM into showing something similar to the UKMO

[Gazza H]

silly question time, but why doesn't net weather have the NAVGEM, JMA, CMA etc charts as shown on here all the time from users screenshots from meteociel, It would be easier if they were all in one place on here to find surely? I'm assuming they are not free, however meteociel have decided to provide them anyway?

[Cloud 10]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats EXACTLY what im thinking ukmo would lead to

 

Yes,those two models pretty close at 144 hrs.

 

Here comes the ECM...

 

[radiohead]

Just now, Gazza H said:

silly question time, but why doesn't net weather have the NAVGEM, JMA, CMA etc charts as shown on here all the time from users screenshots from meteociel, It would be easier if they were all in one place on here to find surely? I'm assuming they are not free, however meteociel have decided to provide them anyway?

Well, NAVGEM, I do remember @fergieweather posting a while back that certain professional forecasters do have a funny nickname for the NAVGEM due to how terrible they think the model is ( I can't remember it now though). As for the CMA, I honestly don't think I've even heard it discussed on Netweather before this cold spell started to downgrade on the major models!

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Id quite happily bribe

Lol! Just 10 minutes to wait but at T72hrs its already looking better over the USA and Canada than the GFS.

Its a shame we don't get to see the UKMO upstream at T72hrs.

Edited January 11, 2016 by nick sussex

[MR EXTREMES]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Just 10 minutes to wait but at T72hrs its already looking better over the USA and Canada than the GFS.

yep low exiting futher south from the ne states not huge but better than this mornings 72

and 96 has low weakening

Edited January 11, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[chris55]

UKMO vs GFS just sums it up really.

Any newbies reading i would advise just sitting back and watching how things unfold. Its not unknown for this kind of uncertainty when we are in a more blocked pattern, with swings and disagreements between all the output. This wont be sorted for a few days yet IMO.

[Captain Shortwave]

Talking about the nearer timeframe. Here are the predicted 850s for Thursday afternoon.

Yesterdays 12z

For a large part of England and Wales we have seen these drop a couple of degrees which may be crucial in seeing snow instead of rain, especially on the back edge of the system which moves through Wednesday night into Thursday.

[Mucka]

As expected it is between GFS and UKMO at 96h sand probably most accurate.

[Jason M]

ECM at 96 more like METO than GFS in my opinion

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[Methuselah]

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeease...discuss model output?

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No comment till after the ECM! lol Even if that backs the UKMO we need the GFS to move quickly in its 18hrs run.

i cannot see the gfs being correct nick, it is at great odds with the noaa 500mb charts - it would be most unusual (but not impossible) for the gfs to 'win' .

[Nick L]

9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Talking about the nearer timeframe. Here are the predicted 850s for Thursday afternoon.

Yesterdays 12z

For a large part of England and Wales we have seen these drop a couple of degrees which may be crucial in seeing snow instead of rain, especially on the back edge of the system which moves through Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beat me to it Matt. A reasonable amount of precip moving down the eastern half of England along with it on Thursday afternoon, would likely be sleet/snow even to lower levels on this run.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Nick L
Typo

[radiohead]

ECM like yesterday seems to show a solution about halfway between the GFS and UKMO at T120.  Some big differences with the depth of that low off the tip of Greenland.

 

[bradymk]

Look at the difference between GFS and ECM over the states at 120. High not quite as far north as on UKMO though.

 

Edit: At 144, ECMWF has -6 850 line at around Swansea whereas GFS has the 0c at Swansea with -6 only hanging on to the far north east

Edited January 11, 2016 by bradythemole

[radiohead]

ECM T144 quite a bit closer to the GFS (though not identical) than the UKMO, which looks out on it's own here. Interesting to see what the ECM does at T168.

[northwestsnow]

• No to gfs, but no to ukmo as well- still very cold on sunday but signs od the atlantic getting through