atlantic Hurricane Cristobal

[summer blizzard]

We finally have it. Updates to follow.

Recon have just found 1002mb. Large size means slow development but wind field of strong winds should be large.

Large track spread.

Once convection fires over the LLC the environment looks good.

Edited September 3, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[lorenzo]

Liked this loop re track ensembles for Cristobal

 

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/503304768828104705/photo/1

[summer blizzard]

Recon have 41kt flight winds so perhaps an upgrade. They also have 1001mb.

One of the fodder models brings this to category 4 near the Carolinas.

Would appreciate seeing if Navgem and Ukmo stick with their track. I don't think GFS is strong enough in the early stages.

[summer blizzard]

Now a TS at 45mph.

Nearly stationary now, we should see the turn west or east tonight.

[Somerset Squall]

As SB has said, winds are now up to 40kts, and 04L is now Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal still isn't very symmetrical, but convection is becoming more concentrated with time. Conditions do look quite supportive for continued strengthening, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cristobal surpassing cat 1 status, something recent storms (barring Arthur) have had problems doing.

[knocker]

The models now showing an out to sea consensus.

 

Morning view of Tropical Storm #Cristobal... center is over eastern Bahamas, likely to recurve east of the U.S. pic.twitter.com/Hiz9Dn2Bon

[summer blizzard]

NHC back the 12z runs of ECWMF-UKMO-NAVGEM over the GFS. They forecast a 85mph hurricane at 35N IN 5 days.

 

We don't have the tropical runs of the Euro or UKMO but i do have NAVGEM..

 

 

As for the system now, while it still looks odd it's certainly much better..

 

[Vorticity0123]

We don't have the tropical runs of the Euro or UKMO but i do have NAVGEM..

 

The run of the UKMO in the tropics is actually available:

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/14082412/index.html

 

The GFDL model track can also be found on this site. (this is the case only if a tropical system is active)

 

Forecast track from UKMO:

 

Forecast track of Cristobal from UKMO, 12 UTC run, August 24 2014.

 

What is remarkable is the fact that the UKMO shows Cristobal intensifying into a sub-950 hPa system (equivalent to a category 3 hurricane, indicated by the pink circles indicating the track of Cristobal in the latter timeframes). While this forecast shouldn't be taken for granted, it is worthwile noting. The GFDL, on the other hand, brings the cyclone only toward a minimum pressure of only 980 hPa (which is equivalent to a borderline category 1/category 2 hurricane in most cases).

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_hurricane_wind_scale

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/14082412/index.html

Edited August 24, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[summer blizzard]

Now 996mb and I think drifting south so stronger than all models predicted at 50mph.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 994mb, GEM and GFS don't even have that in 24 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Wow, what a sheared mess. The LLCC is clear to see well north of the disorganised convection. Shear is still expected to ease, but it looks like my prediction of Cristobal strengthening beyond cat 1 status is looking increasingly unlikely.

[summer blizzard]

Despite the clearly exposed circulation in post 7 it's now 993mb and 60mph. Much like Bertha, it's strength defies the dry air.

 

This poor structure but defiant strength (very much a one side system) is probably why the models have had the storm weaker than reality all day. They forecast the poor structure holding it back but are unable to account for the fact that one side of the system is very much enjoying itself.

[Gael_Force]

This is a picture we have seen so often in the Atlantic in recent years - bare bones LLC and well scattered convection.

 

Cristobal is a very extreme example of this.

 

[summer blizzard]

Funky or what but in the blob to the south and east recon have found -90C cloudtops, 60KT winds and a separate pressure reading of 984mb.

[Somerset Squall]

Cristobal has been upgraded to a 65kt hurricane. This is based on recon data. Looking at the appearance of the hurricane, you wouldn't think it was one. Cristobal is certainly keeping up the run of ugly hurricanes!

[summer blizzard]

Looks much better tonight as per post 7.

[summer blizzard]

Recon found 70KT and 980mb overnight but suggest it may be sub-tropical.

[gottolovethisweather]

Met Office have posted up their thoughts on this too on their blog.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/how-will-ex-hurricane-cristobal-affect-the-uks-weather-next-week/

 

Regards

 

gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

Meteoearth is fun for keeping an eye on them all..

[gottolovethisweather]

Meteoearth is fun for keeping an eye on them all..

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifScreenshot_2014-08-27-16-20-14.png

 

A threesome of fun and games right there. The odds are surely in our favour at least, for the chance of there being another Ex-hurricane come towards us before Autumn's out. A long way away yet and just when will the Hurricane season end this year? Would't surprise me if it didn't continue into January this time around. I'm favouring a prolonged drier spell at some point, whether in Autumn or Winter but of course these ex-Hurricanes would soon put an end to that prediction, lol.

[summer blizzard]

Now at 973mb and looking like a hurricane as it races north east.

[knocker]

Now at 973mb and looking like a hurricane as it races north east.

 

That's deeper than the 18z GFS has it and hopefully the SE quadrant misses Iceland.

[knocker]

After extratropical transition to powerful warm-seclusion, #Cristobal will dump 5-feet of snow on coastal Greenland pic.twitter.com/PpOEXLr25k

[stevofunnelcl]

Extratropical shortly, but still hurricane force winds for a while

There could be quite a sea-swell heading for western parts of our shores, over the next few days

[knocker]

 

Hurricane Cristobal ceased to be at 11 am EDT on Friday, as the storm completed its transition to a powerful extratropical storm. Though Cristobal is no longer a hurricane, it still has hurricane-force winds, and will be a threat to marine interests off the Newfoundland coast today, and to Iceland on Sunday night. With Cristobal's transition to an extratropical storm and the demise of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Marie earlier today, there are now no named tropical cyclones anywhere in the world--an unusual situation for what is traditionally one of the busiest days of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season. This quiet period appears likely to extend though the weekend, as I don't expect any new named storms to form anywhere in the world through Sunday.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2779