Typhoon Matmo

[stormkite]

10W MATMO 140720 0600  13.6N  129.3E WPAC   65   974

65 knots atm

 

 

JTWC tracks a direct hit on  Taiwan.

 

 

 

 

http://www.bellmereweather.net/MTSatPics/EquatorSlideShow.asp

 

 

 

 

 

WDPN31 PGTW 200900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (MATMO) WARNING NR 12//

RMKS//

1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

TYPHOON (TY) 10W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF

MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC). A 200555Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS INTENSIVE

CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE

LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ABOVE MICROWAVE

IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS

BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL

REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM

REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE

IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS

PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.

B. TY 10W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH

DECREASING VWS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM GAINS

LATITUDE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE

PHILIPPINE SEA WILL FURTHER SUPPORT THE SYSTEM'S RAPID

INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING IT AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE CYCLONE

APPROACHES TAIWAN.

C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN TAIWAN,

INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND FINALLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE

SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE

RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, REMAINS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK

FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//

NNNN

 

 

Think i posted this in the wrong thread only a new menber here sorry for the f/u

Edited July 20, 2014 by stormkite