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Autumn 2014 - Forecasts, thoughts & predictions...


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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

Lets hope for a warm, sunny September with temps in the twenties most of the time. Then October marks a change to a more showery start but with some dry days mixed in. Then come mid-month onward we start to see high pressure building in from the Atlantic keeping it dry but mostly cloudy and temperatures around average. From the end of October to the start of November we say goodbye to the high which makes its way back into the Atlantic forcing the jet stream to take a southerly dive underneath but manages to bend back to sit through the North of Spain and through central France thus leaving England and Wales most prone to rain or showers with maybe snow on some of the Scottish hills, Cumbria etc because of the cooler air behind these depressions. This pattern doesn't last long though as we see that same high pushing North and East and becoming ever stronger as it does. This delivers frequent N or NE winds cooling things down quite a bit with the chance of a few wintry showers around coasts, especially Northern Scotland and the North Sea coast. Then to end November a series of troughs start to develop from Norway and the Arctic and travel South through the country bringing the first substantial snowfalls of the season but most of these will not deliver much to the South of the UK and Wales. By the very end, temperatures should be no more than 4 -5C in the South and 2-3C in the North with hard frosts at night with temps around 0 to -5/-6C. Feeling optimistic at the end but worth a try!! :) can't be that far off can I?? Or maybe I'm another James Madman!! :rofl:  :rofl:

But you didn't mention Sun spots
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Would like:

Warm, sunny September. Sunny, cold October to get a vivid Autumnal display. Misty mornings. Bright, sunny November with clear nights and frosty mornings.

 

Will get:

Non-stop Atlantic cr@p. 

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Absolutely, even the people who start the threads know its far too early. And considering just how random even short term forecasts are - I don't really see the problem. But when mods shut down the thread just because they think its too early - that's a bit heavy handed. Let people talk about what they want, and as u say if u don't want to - then just don't go into that thread with the sole purpose of moaning!

I for one am glad that the moderators shut it down for being too early,it is still the height of summer after all,maybe if there were no moderators we would have a winter  thread also a spring 2015 thread ...or I forgot a summer and autumn 2015 too....surely a winter 2015/16 .....winter 2050.....winter 2100,winter 3000...maybe not that one it is a little early after all!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

But you didn't mention Sun spots

There wont be any, according to Madman, watch this space. :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

As much as I would like an Autumn like 1993 or 2010, I feel this coming season will be typical of many of those during the 1997-2007 period.  The last 12 months has seen a change back to that type of pattern with month after month of above average temperatures.  This means that September will probably see an extension of Summer with a high overall CET 15C+.  October perhaps indifferent and probably has the best chance of recording a below average CET out of the Autumn months.  November probably rather mild and wet with few frosts.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex

I for one am glad that the moderators shut it down for being too early,it is still the height of summer after all,maybe if there were no moderators we would have a winter  thread also a spring 2015 thread ...or I forgot a summer and autumn 2015 too....surely a winter 2015/16 .....winter 2050.....winter 2100,winter 3000...maybe not that one it is a little early after all!!!!!

And how would it affect you if all those threads did exist? No one is forcing you to enter them!
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Posted
  • Location: United Kingdom
  • Location: United Kingdom

 

Very interesting video on whether this prolonged warm spell may continue through autumn or whether it may end abruptly...

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

As much as I would like an Autumn like 1993 or 2010, I feel this coming season will be typical of many of those during the 1997-2007 period.  The last 12 months has seen a change back to that type of pattern with month after month of above average temperatures.  This means that September will probably see an extension of Summer with a high overall CET 15C+.  October perhaps indifferent and probably has the best chance of recording a below average CET out of the Autumn months.  November probably rather mild and wet with few frosts.

Thats my fear for this coming Autumn too,its been a rather warm yr so far and nearly every month of the last 12 has been above average so i wouldnt be surprised if we just see a continuation of that theme over the Autumn months aswell. I know of course the run of above average months has to end at some point but i fear they will continue for a while yet. I think its sad that overall Autumns just dont seem to feel as Autumnal as they used to,last Autumn and Autumn 2011 were particularly poor from an Autumn lovers perspective.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

And how would it affect you if all those threads did exist? No one is forcing you to enter them!

But your view on winter 2015 would be the same as winter 2014 at this moment in time. There is very little to talk about apart from the CFS 9 monther and a few looks into some of the background signals which might play a role in our weather down the line. Maybe there is scope for a generic season thread, one for each season, but for anything specific then there is no point until we start to get more and more models in the forecasting timeframe (long rangers).

There is of course the argument that it is a lot more work for the moderators on here. Case of necessity here, just look at the stripping down of the regionals this summer, same reason.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

We don't have a winter thread at this time as there isn't anything to really talk about other than a few long-range experimental models and previous winters. These factors are generally covered in other threads.

 

For seasonal forecasts we have this thread:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/

 

There's also a full historic weather section in this sub-forum to discuss previous ones.

 

It would be pretty silly to have a thread so early. I can only imagine the reaction if a summer thread was opened in the middle of a mid-January cold snap. That's pretty much what a winter thread would be like now.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Don't know what people are moaning about. Gavin et al were posting away in the spring thread back in January, constantly reminding us of how the days were lengthening and how the sun was gaining strength. Can't have it all roads.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Don't know what people are moaning about. Gavin et al were posting away in the spring thread back in January, constantly reminding us of how the days were lengthening and how the sun was gaining strength. Can't have it all roads.

January is technically the middle of winter in a meteorological sense and hence around the same time as opening the Autumn thread now.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

January is technically the middle of winter in a meteorological sense and hence around the same time as opening the Autumn thread now.

Exactly, so there should be no issues with this thread being open :p
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Exactly, so there should be no issues with this thread being open :p

There isn't I don't think, it was more to do with the winter 2014/15 thread and any other seasonal threads after that.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting JMA update for September and October - lots of anticylonic conditions on offer, and consequently suggesting a warm dry 2 months.. things can change though - plenty of time.

 

After a lengthy very wet unsettled period between October and March, mother nature may be dealing us a lengthy dry settled period now.. we shall wait and see, but wouldn't surprise me to see a dry warm set up in September at least...

 

I'll reserve my thoughts until later in August.

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Posted
  • Location: United Kingdom
  • Location: United Kingdom

Interesting JMA update for September and October - lots of anticylonic conditions on offer, and consequently suggesting a warm dry 2 months.. things can change though - plenty of time.

 

After a lengthy very wet unsettled period between October and March, mother nature may be dealing us a lengthy dry settled period now.. we shall wait and see, but wouldn't surprise me to see a dry warm set up in September at least...

 

I'll reserve my thoughts until later in August.

 

Hopefully November will be the month where it all changes to much colder weather. Would be happy with that actually, it can still be quite warm and pleasant in September/October.

Edited by Xyplode
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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

There wont be any, according to Madman, watch this space. :rofl:

Sun spots?.. what sun spots!
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Further ahead, first pieces of winter jigsaw emerging.....QBO analogues suggestive of 60-40 weighting in favour of -NAO winter. This comes after the QBO has had its 2 largest descents on record

 

pic.twitter.com/iquIdUSgas

 

Means little at the minute but CFS in agreement consistently at present.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Hoping for frequent warm/mild southerlies and periods of high pressure in September and October. Later into November the Atlantic can fire up and the gales can commence.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Hoping for frequent warm/mild southerlies and periods of high pressure in September and October. Later into November the Atlantic can fire up and the gales can commence.

 

 

Just an observation, Recent Autumns apart from last year, have seen plenty of settled warm conditions. 2009 and 2010 saw very settled periods in October. 2006 saw a very warm settled September, Autumn 2005 delivered very mild dry conditions. 2001 exceptionally mild October and settled. Indeed bar 2006 there has been a trend in recent years to see settled Autumns followed by winters with plenty of cold blocking, 2009 and 2010 notably so. 2005 was followed by a cold blast late November and mostly fine chilly conditions through the winter. 2001 saw a anticyclonic chilly December. Going even further back, mild dry weather Oct and early Nov 1995 was followed by cold snowy winter.

 

I'm sure we have had the thread and discussion many occasion, but there is a tentative link between mild Octobers and cooler winters. The settled high pressure periods of October 2009 and 2010 were very similar and I remember thinking where is the atlantic? something must be up..

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Early days but I think we are returning to more traditional set ups now I.e 2 good summers now, and milder wetter winters (much different to the colder winters and colder wetter summers we were having) though if course last winter was exceptional. Every chance this could be a cold autumn and winter though. Nature will always outsmart us.

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Early days but I think we are returning to more traditional set ups now I.e 2 good summers now, and milder wetter winters (much different to the colder winters and colder wetter summers we were having) though if course last winter was exceptional. Every chance this could be a cold autumn and winter though. Nature will always outsmart us.

This is my thinking. The last year has seen a change back to a warm pattern like that of pre-2008. I know we have had some warm periods at times during the last 5 years but this feels different with the Summers in particular.
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Posted
  • Location: Davenham, Cheshire
  • Location: Davenham, Cheshire

My favourite time of year, late summer through autumn. The light and colours are wonderful.

 

It's turning out to be a decent if not outstanding summer so I'm going for a warm start before Atlantic storms land through late October and November. Turning much colder through November as El Nino strikes bringing cold and heavy snow.

 

Alternately, August gives way to six months of mild and very wet weather as the Atlantic conveyor belt gets into gear.

Edited by clangers23
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Might be an idea to look at UK Met Europe prediction charts for upper and surface pressure anomalies along with the temperature anomalies. I suspect they will be a good a guidance as any other?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

My Thoughts on Autumn are:

 

September: I think it will be a mixed month, I reckon a calm and dry start, and then middle will turn a little more unsettled with the Atlantic starting to kick in.

Last part of september, I reckon we will get some late warmth, and some thundery showers around coastal areas .

 

October: I think it will be quite and unsettled month with the Atlantic pushing in lows through most part. Last week of October I reckon High pressure will push in giving some calm, melow conditions with some early frost in places.

 

November: I think this will carry on into the first half of November, dry, settled, lots of mist/fog in the mornings and some frost too. Im also going for an early cold spell towards the end of November with some wintry showers in places.

 

Thats my thoughts on Autumn :D

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