eastern pacific Tropical Storm Fausto

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 99E, located a 1000 nautical miles south-southwest of Baja California, has rapidly become better organised today. The low has been largely convectionless since it's inception, but today, convection has blown up over the well defined centre, and banding features are taking shape nicely. NHC have just upgraded the invest to Tropical Storm Fausto, with winds of 35kts.

 

Tropical Storm Fausto is quite a long way out to sea, and is expected to take a rather typical west-northwesterly track further out to sea. Fausto is at quite low lattitude also, which means it is over very warm water. Shear is low also, so Fausto should strengthen for at least the next few days. The west-northwest track should take Fausto over gradually decreasing sea temps after this time, which will initiate weakening if this occurs. However, NHC mention the possibility of Fausto taking a more westerly track- if this were to occur and Fausto remains at low lattitude, it could remain over warmer water for longer than currently forecast. NHC expect a peak of 55kts, which is a fair first forecast, but if Fausto remains over warmer water it could get stronger than this. Fausto is quite a small system, which does mean strengthening could be quite quick unless shear rises.

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Fausto peaked at 40kts, and has since unexpectedly weakened to a 30kt tropical depression. Convection has decreased due to dry and stable air enveloping the system. Shear is low, and waters remain warm, but this is probably not going to be enough to save Fausto. The official forecast points to remnant low status in 48hrs, but this could occur sooner as it seems the lack of centralised convection is taking it's toll on Fausto's circulation, causing it to lose definition.

[Somerset Squall]

Fausto no longer has a closed circulation, so it has been declared a remnant low. Fausto's remnants are going to be moving into increased shear over the next day or two, and as the air is also expected to remain on the dry side, regeneration is not expected.

 

A few disappointing storms to track after the brutes Amanda and Cristina! Douglas, Elida and Fausto have all been very weak storms. Hopefully we will get another intense storm to track soon.