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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Invest 90W has become the Western Pacific season's first tropical depression, a couple hundred miles south of Guam. Winds are at 30kts. The depression is in it's formative stages, and currently is quite broad. 08W is in an area of low shear, but there is not much outflow in a poleward direction. Because of the lack of outflow and broad structure, strengthening could initially be quite slow. Over the next few days, poleward outflow is expected to improve as the system heads northwestwards. With shear remaining low and waters warm aswell, a much quicker rate of strengthening is forecast be JTWC to occur beyond 72hrs. JTWC are currently forecasting 08W to become the strongest West Pacific system so far, forecasting a peak of 105kts.

 

Track wise, the subtropical ridge anchored to 08W's north will be the primary steering influence. This should steer 08W northwestwards, between Guam and Yap. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to weaken due to an advancing trough from the west, sending 08W northwards east of Taiwan, ultimately bringing the system towards Okinawa. The timing of this turn is uncertain, and could change in the coming days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

It looks like Japan might receive a real beating from this cyclone. In fact, the GFS model is projecting a minimum pressure of about 960 hPa at landfall. Though this is still quite far away (also regarding the timing of recurve, as Somerset Squall noted), chances are that Japan might get a direct hit.

 

Posted Image

GFS forecast of 08W (09 July, 00Z run)

 

Source:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

08W is now a tropical storm, named Neoguri, with winds of 55kts. The storm is quickly intensifying now that it has a tighter inner core, a central dense overcast and a developing eye. Outflow has vastly improved, due to the upper level anticyclone that Knocker mentions. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 125kts, a solid cat 4. Track forecast remains the same as when I first posted, with just minor tweaks. Neoguri should pass just east of Okinawa, but then slam into southwestern mainland Japan as a significant typhoon (although a weakening one at this point).

 

post-1820-0-99845900-1404464491_thumb.jp

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

08W is now a tropical storm, named Neoguri, with winds of 55kts. The storm is quickly intensifying now that it has a tighter inner core, a central dense overcast and a developing eye. Outflow has vastly improved, due to the upper level anticyclone that Knocker mentions. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 125kts, a solid cat 4. Track forecast remains the same as when I first posted, with just minor tweaks. Neoguri should pass just east of Okinawa, but then slam into southwestern mainland Japan as a significant typhoon (although a weakening one at this point).

 

Indeed, this system looks like it is going to be a real bomber. The satellite presentation of Neoguri has improved greatly, with a large, though somewhat broken, band completely encompassing the system. In fact, an eyewall seems to be becoming increasingly defined. Even though this eyewall is still somewhat fragmented, it consists of very deep convection. This confirms the well-organized inner core, as pointed out by Somerset Squall. Rapid intensification is therefore a distinct possibility in my opinion.

 

Posted Image

Dvorak satellite image of Neoguri (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

Source:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08W/08W_floater.html

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

The JTWC has upgraded Neoguri to a typhoon, the second of the 2014 Pacific typhoon season, with winds of 65 kt. The satellite presentation continues to be somewhat impressive, with a broken and elongated eye feature surrounded by very deep convection. 

 

Of note is that the last ADT estimate from CIMSS reads 112.4 kt, which would already be category 3 intensity (SSHS-scale)! Given the satellite presentation, it does seem to be a little bit generous to me, but it will be very likely that Neoguri will reach this category 3 intensity (winds of >100 kt) shortly.

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

If we are going by JTWC, it is the third system they've classified as a typhoon (the others were Faxai and Tapah). Officially (as according to JMA), it's the second (they didn't classify Tapah as a typhoon).

Latest imagery depicts a clear, but not yet completely circular eye. I think rapid intensification is occuring, as Vorticity alluded to.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Navy/NRL has Neoguri at 90kts.

 

post-1820-0-03937900-1404524604_thumb.jp

 

Latest JTWC advisory indeed confirms the 90kt, cat 2 (SS scale) intensity. The forecast indicates Neoguri passing over Okinawa as a 140kt cat 5 super typhoon!

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Neoguri's eye has become better defined overnight, and winds are now at 115kts, cat 4 on the SS scale. Further rapid strengthening is expected, and JTWC are now forecasting Neoguri to be an 150kt beast as it moves over Okinawa.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Not sure it has weakened Cookie. In fact, NAVY/NRL now put Neoguri's winds at 130kts. With the JTWC advisory imminent, this is probably the intensity they will go with in the advisory. However, it is true that the rate of strengthening has been slower than forecast over the last 24hrs, following the rapid strengthening episode before that.

 

Another image of Neoguri, showing the large but very well defined eye:

 

post-1820-0-41797400-1404675869_thumb.jp

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Spot on SS, latest JTWC advisory puts sustained windspeeds at 130kts (150mph), making it a super typhoon, the first of the season. Neoguri is expected to strengthen overnight, attaining sustained windspeeds of 145kts (165mph), which would make it comfortably a category 5 on the SS scale.

 

SST's are still very warm and Neoguri seems to have gotten a lot of the dry air out of itself, I can't see too much stopping it from reaching that intensity unless anything else springs up.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Sainsbo
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Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it.

 

The JTWC did predict Neoguri to maintain Category 5 status until Wednesday, so it is entirely possible that the eyewall replacement cycle wil have finished by then and allow time for re intensification before landfall. Even if this doesn't happen, the storm surge and rain will still be a very large problem.

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Indeed, an EWRC is occuring and winds have fallen to 130kts. Once the EWRC is complete, Neoguri still has some time to strengthen as it passes Okinawa then slams into SW Japan. JTWC still expect Neoguri to become a cat 5 with winds of 140kts. Whether it makes it or not remains to be seen but it's already come very close!

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Neoguri seems to have started an eyewall replacement cycle, as cloud tops have warmed considerably. According to the JTWC's latest advisory, sustained windspeeds are at 135kts (155mph), just shy of category 5 on the SS scale, but looking at it on satellite, it seems that the eyewall replacement has weakened it.

 

An EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) could indeed be occuring, but could the tremendous warming of the convection (as seen in the darker colours dissipating in the Dvorak image shown below, as of 15:45 UTC) be caused only by an EWRC? 

 

Posted Image

DVORAK satellite imagery loop of Neoguri (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

Source:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08W/08W_floater.html

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Perhaps the eyewall replacement cycle has allowed some dry air in from the western side? I know that dry air slowed strengthening of Neoguri a couple of days ago.

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JTWC's latest advisory puts windspeeds back to 110kts (125mph), category 3 on the SS scale. The system's expected to slowly weaken as it heads towards Japan, but will likely still have a large storm surge due to it's size and prior intensity.

 

What a difference a day can make. Hopefully some people willl be able to breathe a sigh of relief.

 

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Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Shear is low and outflow good, so dry air is definitely the problem here for Neoguri, and as Sainsbo stated, winds have fallen to 110kts, cat 3 on the SS scale. However, convection around the eye appears to be cooling and deepening once more at the end of those loops, I would not be surprised to see Neoguri recover a little as the EWRC has completed and the mixing out of dry air occurs. Cat 5 is looking unlikely now however.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Looking very much improved after the earlier convective degradation:

 

post-1820-0-81705200-1404774112_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Neoguri maintained a 110kt intensity for another 12-18hrs before shear increased and the typhoon moved over cooler waters. These factors have reduced Neoguri's winds to 70kts currently, as the typhoon approaches southwest Japan. Landfall should occur in the next 12hrs. Neoguri will turn east-northeastwards and continue to weaken as the circulation drags across land and shear remains high. As Neoguri moves across Japan, it is expected to become extratropical.

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