atlantic hurricane season Hurricane Arthur

[Vorticity0123]

We have already had half the number of hurricanes of the whole 2013 season

 

To make it even better: If Arthur would reach 75 kt, it would already be as strong as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season! In fact, a CIMSS ADT satellite intensity estimate already suggests Arthur (82.2 kt, as of 09:15 UTC) is stronger than Humberto was at peak intensity (75 kt). Given the current satellite presentation, I think this intensity estimate may be a little bit generous.

 

Meanwhile, all models agree that Arthur will make landfall on North Carolina, and are rather tightly packed on a continued northeastward motion within the next 48 hours. 

 

Model track forecasts of Arthur

 

Thereafter, models are becoming more spread, with some models showing a back-bend toward the north, while the majority calls for a continued northeastward motion. This will also have a possible impact on the weather in the UK. Often, ex-tropical cyclones tend to bring much uncertainty regarding the weather in the mid-latitudes.

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Edited July 3, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[Buriedundersnow]

with the forecast track it still has some pretty warm water to go over to help intensification

 

 

looking like on radar there will be lots of rain coming in on the northern flank once it makes landfall

 

 

and a good radar loop showing how the storm has developed over time and how it seems to have really bloomed recently

 

 

how HRRR has it at 5pm today I imagine that will be eastern time over there

 

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[summer blizzard]

Forgot to add that the 79KT was flight level which explains the difference.

[summer blizzard]

Recon in again and Author looks to be really going for it.. 982mb and 81KT at the surface. Next advisory will likely go for 90mph, it will not take much to make Author a category 2 hurricane.

[Buriedundersnow]

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 8m

Note: surface wind on recon now at 79kts That is a reported recon wind you can see it here, its D http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml â€¦

 

90mph storm now

 

latest wind gust projection I think this may be a little low though

 

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[summer blizzard]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

 

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

 

......................

 

Looks like the higher winds came in just a little too late.

[summer blizzard]

Dropzone just reported 103KT at flight level, also supports 90mph at the surface.

[summer blizzard]

I'm not entirely sure about the different atmospheric levels and their meaning but we have 130mph at 890mb.

[summer blizzard]

*and 906mb.

 

I assume this is a filtering down effect.

[Sainsbo]

Looks like an eye is again trying to develop on the latest satellite images. If it manages to clear, could quite easily see it start to intensity faster.

 

[summer blizzard]

Looks like an eye is again trying to develop on the latest satellite images. If it manages to clear, could quite easily see it start to intensity faster.

 

 

Recon says there's a closed, ragged eye under there already.

[Buriedundersnow]

latest radar loop still shows the eye at the surface

 

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Sainsbo]

Worth noting that the majority of the models now take Arthur up to or beyond 85kts in ~24 hours, which would make it a category 2. I think the NHC may take this into consideration when issuing their next advisory.

 

 

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) suggesting that Arthur is already at 82kts (94mph), just shy of category 2, but it does seem that the ADT does sometimes overdo it.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=01L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[summer blizzard]

4pm advisory will probably go for 90mph. Recon should be in shortly after.

 

50k towers in the northern eyewall and if anything, west of the forecast track.

 

If I were on the coast, i'd be getting nervous because dry air appears gone and this hurricane is probably not going to be far off a major when it hits.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Current sat looks more and more like a N.Carolina landfall? Are we expecting a NE jolt in the coming hours or is it set to fully impact N.C.?

[Buriedundersnow]

Current sat looks more and more like a N.Carolina landfall? Are we expecting a NE jolt in the coming hours or is it set to fully impact N.C.?

 

I think its supposed to head north east along the coast and hit the outer banks probably tomorrow morning our time.

 

now has sustained winds of 90mph and expected to be cat 2 at landfall

[Sainsbo]

4pm advisory will probably go for 90mph. Recon should be in shortly after.

 

50k towers in the northern eyewall and if anything, west of the forecast track.

 

If I were on the coast, i'd be getting nervous because dry air appears gone and this hurricane is probably not going to be far off a major when it hits.

 

 

 

Looks like you were spot on, the advisory's out and it's 90mph. It's now forecast to become a Category 2 storm, as the models have suggested will be the case.

[Buriedundersnow]

looks like a clear eye developing on satellite now

 

 

loop here seen as it wont work on here

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim8vis.html

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

webcam for topsail beach NC for anyone wanting to watch as it works up the coast

 

http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/KF4CLS/1/show.html

 

other webcams in area here

 

http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/index.html?qlat=39.26628426150451&qlon=-96.94335937&qzoom=4&region=us

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Cookie]

[Boro Snow]

Holden Beach Wilmington NC Web cam the seas starting to really look choppy

 

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/northcarolina/supply/holden/?cam=holdennc

 

Also chasers are starting to get into place on TVN 

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Arthur looking very nice on satellite imagery, with winds of 80kts. There is still is some dry air filtering into the west side of Arthur, meaning the deepest convection is located in the eastern quadrant of the hurricane. Nevertheless, it's still going to be a rough ride for North Carolina and areas to the north on the coast. NHC forecasting a peak of 90kts. An impressive start to the season. And as has already been mentioned, Arthur is stronger than anything from 2013!! (Though that's not exactly hard).

[Buriedundersnow]

4.2km WRF

 

 

3.6km WRF

 

 

HRRR positioning on latest run

 

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

ARTHUR looks pretty cool on these its like a hole opening to the centre of the earth

 

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-76.93,34.80,1024

Edited July 3, 2014 by Buriedundersnow