eastern pacific Tropical Storm Douglas

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96E has become the season's fourth tropical depression, southwest of Mexico. The circulation is broad, but there is some banding convection. Due to 04E's large size, strengthening should be slow while further consolidation takes place. In a few days time, the westward track will probably take 04E over cooler waters. NHC forecast 04E to become a mid-range tropical storm before conditions deteriorate, but if the inner core can get it's act together, it may have the cchance to become stronger than this.

[Somerset Squall]

The depression has not strengthened, at least yet. Banding features continue to try and wrap into the depression, and the system will likely become named later today. Shear is expected to remain low and waters warm for a few days aswell, so the only thing stopping this system currently is it's large size and lack of inner core.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

04E has finally become a tropical storm, named Douglas, with winds of 35kts. Douglas has well defined banding features, but still lacks a well defined inner core, or much deep centralised convection. Because of this, Douglas is not expected to strengthen all that much despite the currently favourable environment. NHC expect a peak of 45kts.

 

Douglas has slowed down overnight too. A strong ridge to the north has been pushing Douglas quite briskly westwards throughout it's lifetime so far, but the ridge has broken down somewhat, causing the storm to almost stall. A slow motion is expected to resume in a west-northwesterly direction, but at a considerably slower pace than before.

Edited June 30, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Douglas has not strengthened, and is no longer forecast to strengthen. Winds remain at 35kts. Shear is low, but waters are cooling along track. In addition, dry air is filtering in from the west. Douglas' circulation is still broad, with very little convection over the centre. With the dry air present, this is not expected to change. As shear is low, weakening probably won't be quick, but Douglas should slowly fade out from here on in.

[Somerset Squall]

Douglas' winds have edged up to 40kts. Other than that, the storm hasn't really changed all that much. Convection is still not very concentrated, and with dry air continuing to filter in from the west, this is not expected to change.

[Somerset Squall]

Stubborn Douglas is hanging on as it crawls towards the northwest. Winds are down to 35kts. Douglas' circulation actually looks tighter than it ever has done, but convection is shallow over the LLCC. This is mainly down to the fact that sea temperatures are only about 25C beneath the system, and decreasing all the time. Douglas is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today ot tomorrow, and degenerate into a remnant low soon therefter.

[Somerset Squall]

Douglas is still hanging on as a tropical storm with winds of 35kts as it continues to slowly head northwestwards. Douglas is moving over sea temperatures of 23C and through a dry and stable airmass. The storm has largely been devoid of convection through the day, but an area of deep convection has popped up near the centre this evening. This may prolong tenacious Douglas' life a little more. Bottom line is though, with sea temperatures so cool, the storm must not be able to survive much longer.

Edited July 5, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

The deep convection associated with Douglas soon dissipated through daylight hours. The LLCC has remained convectionless since, and Douglas has been downgraded to a remnant low by NHC.

Edited July 6, 2014 by Somerset Squall