Convective/Storm Discussion for 06/0614 - 07-06-14

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow just been in the cinema but looks like Falmouth came pretty close to a storm!!! Has rained but don't think anything would have been heard here but maybe a few distant flashes were possible. Still warm and close. The cold front is still out west by the looks of it though radar looks pretty boring again now so perhaps unlikely to be any more storms down here.

[Arnie Pie]

Sferics from nothing at all over Carmarthenshire!

yep getting closer to your live feed Tony....good luck mate

 

http://llanwnnenstream.no-ip.org:8080/

Edited June 6, 2014 by Arnie Pie

[Chris101]

Yes but the speed northward seems to be picking up rapidly!

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

This is a great site especially if you put the sound on and hear the 'ticks' as the lightning strikes. Definitely increasing the rate and speed..

Never realised you could switch the clicks on, have zoomed it in over the UK on another tab, so if i hear any clicks i'll flick over to it.

 

Nice one CF 

[A.J]

Evening...what's my chances seeing anything in Yeovil tonight or tomorrow please?It's been very warm this evening and the wind is blowing well with a warm feel to it...

rather good...in a recent poll, eight out of ten cat owners said their cats prefer elevated storms 

[Bolt from the Blue]

Going to sleep, got alarm set for 4:30AM. I hope the thunder will wake me if anything happens

[Dancerwithwings]

Here's what's been happening over Spain & France over the last five hours..... it's on the way

 

[ancientsolar]

heres a livecam of Nantes.. ~ you can see frequent lightning reflecting off the roadhttp://www.viewsurf.com/univers/trafic/vue/7498-france-pays-de-la-loire-nantes-a11-pres-de-nantes-vue-orientee-vers-angers

[A.J]

It seems like the Nantes thunderstorm is starting to bifurcate. The more active half seems to be heading NE and the less active half is headng NNW.

 

sounds like what happens 3 hours after eating a vindaloo!! 

[coldfingers]

The Rain Today radar is showing it is quite a storm over Nantes area.

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Harry]

Estofex out for tomorrow - no Lvl 2 but very encouraging and exciting reading. Note however the clear statement regarding model disagreement and question marks galore....still a bloody good read

...England...

A short-wave trough is forecast to cross the region by 15 UTC Wednesday, so that any severe activity will likely happen by this time. GFS and ECMWF are in strong disagreement regarding the timing and degree of evolving instability - while ECMWF simulates the highest instability during the morning hours, GFS counts with the afternoon destabilisation. The main culprit behind this disagreement may be the amount of morning convective debris and subsequent stratiform precipitation. Nevertheless, as strong mid-level flow overspreads the region, DLS values above 20 m/s may overlap with at least marginal CAPE values. This would suggest some potential for well organised DMC, including supercells, which may pose the hazards of large hail or marginally severe wind gusts. Especially in the morning hours, stronger low-level flow will contribute to LLS above 10 m/s, so if some supercells manage to develop at that time (and provided they are not elevated), isolated tornado event is not ruled out. As storms cluster thanks to the forcing by the approaching short-wave, excessive precipitation threat will be enhanced

Edited June 6, 2014 by Harry

[SP1986]

Suprisingly it feels quite cool, and fresh out there, relatively low humidity here, which whilst I would expect a reduction in humidity due to topographic influences, I find it quite surprising with the air feels that fresh. I expect some impressive, perhaps convective rainfall, perhaps some heavy amounts.. not sure it'll be of thundery nature this far north.

Edited June 6, 2014 by SP1986

[Eskimo]

I can say it's quite oppressive here tonight, air temperature still around 18C with humidity levels creeping up to 70%. (North Herts)

Edited June 6, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[Mokidugway]

rather good...in a recent poll, eight out of ten cat owners said their cats prefer elevated storms 

my cat doesn't like storms , in fact he doesn't like me !!!!....

[Buckster]

what makes them split like that ?

[Buriedundersnow]

ESTOFEX forecast

 

[UKSupercell]

Nice one to whoever provided that live webcam stream from Nantes or wherever it was in France. Some frequent lightning there!  

[coldfingers]

These storms over France seem to be developing rapidly now and spreading in all directions except South. Looks like it is game on for tomorrow and even for overnight for me. So hope I don't sleep through it. Maybe the dog will wake me. We get very few storms in Bognor so I reckon I am due a massive one by now!

[coldfingers]

The two French storms are really kicking off now! If they keep heading in their current directions, I would expect the northbound storm to hit the Devon/Dorset coast as well as making a stop at the Channel Islands, and the NE bound storm to be a Kent clipper.

 

Certainly looking very juicy out there.

If it splits so much that it misses me I WILL SCREAM!

[Gordon Webb]

what makes them split like that ?

 

perhaps one didn't like the film frozen

[andy989]

Suprisingly it feels quite cool, and fresh out there, relatively low humidity here, which whilst I would expect a reduction in humidity due to topographic influences, I find it quite surprising with the air feels that fresh. I expect some impressive, perhaps convective rainfall, perhaps some heavy amounts.. not sure it'll be of thundery nature this far north.

Must say its warm here. Warm wind too. Took the dog for a walk at 22:30 in a T-shirt. 

[Eskimo]

I like to think the splitting is when the storm develops a positive and negative charge, thus repelling and splitting apart. 

[coldfingers]

I would guess at it hitting the Sussex coast at around 1:00 to 1:30 am unless it develops even more rapidly than now.

[Mapantz]

It's so damn warm here, everybody is outside tonight- you can feel the atmosphere building.

[ancientsolar]

There is a cell between the two cells over Rennes forming! ~ a few sparks from that ~ It's a full on saw heading up through Nantes though, a huge line of sparks! ~ Potentially another storm developing behind it on the coast at Pornic 

[Chris K]

An update on Facebook from Stuart over at UKWF:

 

Good evening,

Elevated storms have fired over the Bay of Biscay and western France tonight, we expect this activity to continue throughout the night and impact the southern coastal areas of, Devon, Dorset, and Hampshire during the early hours before moving north/north westwards affecting Wales, Midlands and the northwest of England.

The South East from west Sussex eastwards should expect similar activity to arrive a little later on, say from around 7am, this activity will also take a north/north easterly path affecting much of the South East, East Anglia, East Midlands and Lincolnshire during the morning.

As is the nature of thunderstorms, some areas will escape this activity, however, areas that are affected can expect some torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds and in some cases moderate sized hail.