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CAPE value of 3500 - 4000?


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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Hi guys,

 

Off to the Charente in S/W France on Sunday morning - looks to be a hot/humid and potentially thundery week.

 

One thing caught my eye on the 06z GFS - CAPE values on Monday night of 3500 - 4000 (almost max) in that area?! As I understand it the CIN (Convective Inhibition) has a bearing on storm potential, but that seems low as well.

 

Question to those in the know; should we be nailing things to floor if this were to happen? I love a good storm, but that looks extreme to me?

 

Cheers,

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

The CAPE isn't the be all and end all when it comes to storm potential, but that is quite a high number! It may moderate over the next few days anyway, and would need a trigger to kick any storms off, but in terms of pure potential, yes there could be quite violent storms should they develop with that amount of energy to tap into, big hail/big winds etc all possible, but this is purely theoretical :)

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

Thanks Paul, appreciated. Hopefully can grab a glass bottle of red and watch a few fireworks if we're lucky!

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