Crucial D-Day forecast was luck, not science

[knocker]

I thought I had a copy of James Stagg's account of the forecast but it seems to have vanished.

 

It was the most crucial weather report in history: the D-Day operation 70 years ago depended on good conditions in the English Channel, and meteorologists saved the day by giving a remarkably accurate forecast.

 

Handed down for decades, this thrilling story is a myth, according to a new study. The British forecasters seriously misjudged and by sheer luck made the correct forecast for the wrong reasons — and it could have led to catastrophe.

 

http://www.rmets.org/sites/rmets.org/files/d-day-article.pdf

 

For an in depth look at the forecast the ECMWF have done a complete reconstruction of the events and weather which is very interesting.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/research/era/dday/

Edited June 3, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

In this video Chris analyses the original hand-drawn Met Office chart for the 5th of June. He shows that a ridge of high pressure was building in the Atlantic, south of Iceland. This gave the impression that the weather could become more settled on the 6th of June, the following day. Group Captain James Stagg, RAF and Chief Meteorological Officer at Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force, led a team of meteorologists charged with providing forecasts to the Allied Commanders deciding when to launch the D-Day offensives. The video shows original photos of Stagg's team plus memorandums exchanged and excerpts from his diary. The entry on the 5th of June reads that D-Day would commence the following day -- a "final, irrevocable decision".

 

[johnholmes]

 

In this video Chris analyses the original hand-drawn Met Office chart for the 5th of June. He shows that a ridge of high pressure was building in the Atlantic, south of Iceland. This gave the impression that the weather could become more settled on the 6th of June, the following day. Group Captain James Stagg, RAF and Chief Meteorological Officer at Supreme Headquarters Allied Expeditionary Force, led a team of meteorologists charged with providing forecasts to the Allied Commanders deciding when to launch the D-Day offensives. The video shows original photos of Stagg's team plus memorandums exchanged and excerpts from his diary. The entry on the 5th of June reads that D-Day would commence the following day -- a "final, irrevocable decision". 

 I'll have a browse through this when I get a chance-sure I have read this and even have a Met O pamphlet issued when I was working so will dig that out as well Edited June 5, 2014 by johnholmes