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Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

hmm that ECM throws up a fair amount of uncertainty as to where we head in week 2. To this suite I felt (as many others) that we would see similar conditions to this week but I think things could get a little more tricky to forecast.

Now all models agree on a tropical storm tracking up the eastern seaboard which develops and interacts with the Atlantic jet in various ways. ECM is the most progressive with this which in turn increases the amplification of the Atlantic ridge and hence allows low heights to stall near the north of the UK instead of the next ridge moving swiftly in off the Atlantic to bring drier and warmer conditions like the GFS.

We need to get that tropical system sorted before we call next week now as the energy it carries has the potential to be a real game changer.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

hmm that ECM throws up a fair amount of uncertainty as to where we head in week 2. To this suite I felt (as many others) that we would see similar conditions to this week but I think things could get a little more tricky to forecast.

Now all models agree on a tropical storm tracking up the eastern seaboard which develops and interacts with the Atlantic jet in various ways. ECM is the most progressive with this which in turn increases the amplification of the Atlantic ridge and hence allows low heights to stall near the north of the UK instead of the next ridge moving swiftly in off the Atlantic to bring drier and warmer conditions like the GFS.

We need to get that tropical system sorted before we call next week now as the energy it carries has the potential to be a real game changer.

Amazing how early that tropical storm is powering the jet. This sort of stuff normally happens Mid-Late August time!! I'd have thought it would help to build that block over the UK and even more vitally, kick that Scandi trough on its backside as it has been ruining the chances of this high building East... ALways a chink in the armour these days isnt there :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

And also note how strong the west russian ridge looks to become. It may not be that easy to move the trough through to our east. A stand off would most likely sink the trough into a cut off low whilst the atlantic ridges over the top.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

And also note how strong the west russian ridge looks to become. It may not be that easy to move the trough through to our east. A stand off would most likely sink the trough into a cut off low whilst the atlantic ridges over the top.

If that links up to the huge Atlantic-UK ridge, then it could spell a European wide Heatwave like 2003. This is in cloud cuckoo land at the minute though !

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

I'm going to start a new thread shortly, So please hold off posting for a few minutes.

 

Thank-you.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
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