Continental imports Post 2006, What went wrong?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Since 2007 and onwards, there has been a noticeable lack of overnight storms, and especially those in the form of continental imports. 

 

I'm determined to establish a solution on why this has happened. Is it just a natural phase? Does the jet stream play a significant part? Is it cooler waters around our shores? Is it lack of sunspot activity? Does +ve or -ve NAO or AO play a part? Or is it just purely bad luck?

 

I know we have had a few good storms in the last 6 or 7 years, but it still seems like nothing compared to what we used to get pretty much annually, especially during the 90's. 

 

Could anyone provide useful charts to illustrate possible causes, and for example, make a comparison with one of those all familiar near misses such as 28th June 2011 when we got the back edge of something spectacular on the continent, or summer 2010 and 2008 when we had quite a few painful outcomes of watching beasts skirt by us through Belgium to the likes of 4th July 2001, July 30th 2002, 30th July 1994, 3rd July 1999, 10th July 1994, June 24th 1994, 11th June 1993 and many more!

 

[stainesbloke]

Will be interesting to read people's thoughts on this. I'm 41 this year and have witnessed so many amazing storms in my part of the UK over the years - until activity just seemed to die off from 2007. The best years were the 80-90s for sure. No idea why things have changed so drastically but hope to find out.

[poseidon]

Might be an idea if someone can define a list of the ideal parameters required for imports to reach and survive in the UK, and then try to think about the conditions that could disrupt those factors.

 

Also, just noticed this earlier thread [but haven't read through it yet]:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73399-netweather-community-investigation-into-lack-of-thunderstorms/

Edited May 26, 2014 by poseidon

[davehsug]

Seems to be a couple of factors for me. The main one being that the Southerly airflow never seems to last long enough to allow the thundery/heat lows that form over Spain to move North to us, coupled with troughs from the west always moving in more quickly. People talk of the 80s & 90s, but this was even more common in the 60s & 70s, so it's hardly a new thing. I've been woken by night time thunder probably twice in 20 years. It was much more common before that - though I drunk less beer then lol!

[samadamsuk]

Hey all. Yeah interesting question, and one that can only be answered catagoricaly by examining the synoptics I think. My suspicion is that something has happend with the thermal contrast between mainland europe, and the atlantic, the end result being that rosby waves but up against europe and effectively 'snap' into an orientation that lies from iberia to over the british isles. Its looking increasingly less like coincidence that both surface based, and mid level based severe storms move north east just off the coast of france - so maybe the line of the trough that delineates juicy atmosphere, from mcs outflow clag, is setting up on the land/sea boundary butting up against mainland europe? From 2007 we've had many summer months stuck under a trough with extreme heat in many places on the continent. If our climate is changing unnaturaly then another phase change is to be expected. Your right though ees91 - only way to tell is to analyse the synoptics on the dates you mention (just looking at the estofex archive is pretty damning for the uk!) - id also be interested to see the pressure anomolies and temp anomolies for europe/asia for the same periods

cheers, Sam

[ChezWeather]

The map for June 2005 tells a story, thats the last good night time storm i can remember...

 

I have all of these maps from 2001 to 2012 and the amount of strikes each month seems to be stable for each year, with June and July clearly being the most active months on most occasions, however as mentioned by others, the type of storm obviously has changed! 

 

(Nothing at night!) 

Edited May 27, 2014 by ChezWeather

[Weather-history]

Since 2007 and onwards, there has been a noticeable lack of overnight storms, and especially those in the form of continental imports.  I'm determined to establish a solution on why this has happened. Is it just a natural phase? Does the jet stream play a significant part? Is it cooler waters around our shores? Is it lack of sunspot activity? Does +ve or -ve NAO or AO play a part? Or is it just purely bad luck? 

Natural phase.It's no different to questions asked in the past why don't we get a Greenland High in winter anymore? A notable Scandi high during the height of winter has been notably lacking in recent years.

[Weather-history]

Here's a thread on UKWeatherworld that we have been discussing about a thunder drought for the last 5 years. Some interesting stats in it. I am summer 85 on that site.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/71712-thunder-drought/

[William Grimsley]

The map for June 2005 tells a story, thats the last good night time storm i can remember...

 

I have all of these maps from 2001 to 2012 and the amount of strikes each month seems to be stable for each year, with June and July clearly being the most active months on most occasions, however as mentioned by others, the type of storm obviously has changed! 

 

(Nothing at night!) 

Holy smokes! I lived near Aylesbeare then and do remember some horrendous thunderstorms. Oh, I was watching David Braine at the time. So, yes.