Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Prediction Thread 2014 Part 2: May

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're now into May, so I thought it was time for a new prediction thread and poll. The last thread can be found here

 

As usual, the two polls above are based on the NSIDC data, with the first being the daily minimum, and the second being the September mean. Voting is set to private.

 

Here are the results of the previous poll

 

Daily minimum average: 4.0 million km2.

Sept Monthly average: 4.3 million km2

 

Some extra data

 

The year to date has been the mildest on record for North of 70N, with a strong dipole pattern present since mid March.

 

 

 

 

Sea ice extent has generally remained in the bottom 5 over the last month, dipping to 3rd lowest or climbing to 6th lowest on occasion. We're currently 5th lowest on record, and 155k lower than 2012.

 

Below are the daily minima from the past 10 years

 

2004:  5,776,080km²(5,989,560)

2005:  5,318,320km²(5,510,020)

2006:  5,748,770km²(5,868,890)

2007:  4,166,740km²(4,280,470)

2008:  4,554,690km²(4,695,040)

2009:  5,054,880km²(5,269,370)

2010:  4,599,180km²(4,872,050)

2011:  4,330,280km²(4,568,180)

2012:  3,369,730km²(3,580,150)

2013:  5,079,390km²(5,235,700)

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I stuck with the same vote as last month, 3.2 to 3.4 million for the daily value, and 3.4 to 3.6 million for the monthly. This is mainly due to the continued warmth, persistent dipole and the continued forecast of a persistent dipole anomaly.

[knocker]

I've lowered mine a little to 3.8 to 4.0 and 4.0 to 4.2 mainly because of the warm anomaly and the completely illogical assumption that it may continue with charts such as this. I know, I know.....................................

 

[Gray-Wolf]

still too early to do anything other than trend guess! sub 3 million would be my thoughts for the min?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Over a week in, but with just 9 votes, the average daily minimum guess is 4.4 million km2, with the average September extent at 4.7 million km2.

[be cause]

keeping my prediction at the bottom end as nothing gives me any hope that this year will have anything less than a catastrophic melt in the Arctic basin . 

[Gray-Wolf]

Starting to think you might be right B? The unprecedented breakup off Siberia and torch temps there leaves a lot of room for the gyre to flow into ( to destruction) even before Bering gets in on the show? Our side of the basin is just tragic!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes G.W. A long way to go yet but it's looking poor to start with.