southwest indian ocean Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanoe

[Vorticity0123]

The RSMC La Reunion has started issuing advisories on newly-developed tropical depression 15. The system formed in the central Indian Ocean, about midway between Madagascar and Indonesia. The system consists of a strong, well-defined (though somewhat fragmented) band wrapping into the LLCC (low level circulation center) from the south. The LLCC appears to be located on the eastern side of the convective band located to its west, near 16S, 79E (as from CIMSS).

 

Dvorak satellite image of TD 15. Unfortunately, the coverage of high-resolution satellite pictures over the southwestern Indian Ocean is somewhat poor.

 

TD 15 is currently tracking southeastward toward cooler SSTS (sea surface temperatures). La Reunion expects the system to briefly become a moderate tropical storm (though, given the satellite picture, it already looks like a well-developed tropical storm), before becoming quickly extratropical as the system bends toward the south encountering even lower SSTS.

 

The track from La Reunion can be seen below:

 

Track forecast of TD 15 by RSMC La Reunion.

 

The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the system, and I expect them to upgrade this system to a tropical cyclone soon.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96S/96S_floater.html

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/meteoreunion2/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Edited May 8, 2014 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 15 has been upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Ivanhoe, with winds of 40kts according to JTWC. Ivanhoe has some moderately deep convection over the LLCC, something that has been lacking over the last day. Some moderate banding is also present. The storm is heading quite quickly southeast towards colder water and unfavourable upper level winds, so Ivanhoe only has about another day to strengthen before weakening occurs, followed by extratropical transition.

[Somerset Squall]

Ivanhoe's winds are now at 45kts. Shallow convection persists near the LLCC as Ivanhoe accelerates to the southeast. Extratropical transition will begin very soon and will probably be complete in around 24hrs