Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[knocker]

Arctic sea ice anomaly forcasted to be above normal this year http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

 

?

 

[knocker]

2013/2014 Winter Analysis

 

With another interesting freezing season behind us, it's time to compare to previous winters and get an idea of this melting season's foundation. As we have seen in the last two years, the start of the melting season plays an important role, and so it might very well be that the end of the freezing season plays a role as well (what holds for the Arctic summer often is the opposite during winter). If only for the fact that the end of the freezing season is immediately followed by the start of the melting season. Sorry for being so simplistic.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/05/20132014-winter-analysis.html

[stewfox]

According to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, April was the 5th mildest on record for N of 70N. The year to date is by far the mildest on record, and the first to average higher than -20C.

 

......... ........... April ..... ........ ........... ......... January to April

 

 

The greatest disappointment of the winter which had temps been a bit closer to average , we could have seen better volume growth

 

Above 80N has been poor

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[knocker]

PIOMAS May 2014

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/05/piomas-may-2014.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thickness difference between this April and April 2013, created by Wipneus

 

 

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg25893.html#msg25893

[knocker]

Arctic Heatwaves Rise to Threaten Sea Ice as Lake Baikal Wildfires Re-Ignite

 

According to model forecasts, Arctic heatwaves are forming that will, throughout this coming week, bring 50-70 degree (F) temperatures to the shores of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, the estuaries of the Kara and on through Arctic Eastern Russia to Coastal Scandinavia. These heat pulses will push a series of wedges of above-freezing temperatures across the Arctic Ocean zones of the Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev and Kara Seas to within a few hundred miles of the North Pole, creating conditions that set up the potential for a severe early-season weakening of sea ice.

 

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/arctic-heatwaves-rise-to-threaten-sea-ice-as-lake-baikal-wildfires-reignite/

[Geordiesnow]

It does look like the Arctic's first warm pulse of air will hit the region on a widespread scale during the later part of this week, probably in the worse possible position with open water been created around the East Siberian Sea, of course at this time of year,  favorable wind direction can "close" these holes up but with warmer air in the mix, I can't see this occuring but its one too keep an eye on.

 

Got to say, looking at the Northern Hemisphere temperature profile during this Spring, its kinda eye opening just how warm some parts have been at times and when you compare it to the past then it is a real eye opener. Yes, even in the 60/70's there was some warm pulses at higher latitudes but the difference between then and now does appear to be these warmer pulses are getting even warmer and they are becoming more wider, the Arctic has escaped most of it so far but that is set to change. 

 

Conversely there has been some cold spots, I don't have any official so correct me if I'm wrong but it would seem parts of Canada has in the most part been quite cool/cold and so has the North Pole region and on the Atlantic side of the Arctic has for the most part been quite cold so nature still balances itself out but the emphasis on hotter springs on a more general Northern Hemisphere scale does seem to be gaining more and more in recent years hence early snow cover retreat. 

[oldsnowywizard]

are you saying that temps this year or this decade? I see warmer 850s penetrating into the basin in 02,11... I see other similar 850 temps to this year in 00, 06, 08, 09.. at this time of year warmer temps of course will start coming... where did you get the temp charts for previous decades from? it would be interesting to see them...

 

so far the ice is holding up ok..not the freefall we were expecting, although this will happen in June, like last year... the question of course is how far and fast

 

Just to throw this out there... apparently hot water freezes faster than cold water... do we actually want open water to kick start an ice recovery? (yes its more to do with boiling water could it mean though that water at 10 degrees to start might freeze faster than water at 2 though?) is this the reason for the recovery after 07 and 13 based on the previous years of mass melt?

[keithlucky]

are you saying that temps this year or this decade? I see warmer 850s penetrating into the basin in 02,11... I see other similar 850 temps to this year in 00, 06, 08, 09.. at this time of year warmer temps of course will start coming... where did you get the temp charts for previous decades from? it would be interesting to see them...

 

so far the ice is holding up ok..not the freefall we were expecting, although this will happen in June, like last year... the question of course is how far and fast

 

Just to throw this out there... apparently hot water freezes faster than cold water... do we actually want open water to kick start an ice recovery? (yes its more to do with boiling water could it mean though that water at 10 degrees to start might freeze faster than water at 2 though?) is this the reason for the recovery after 07 and 13 based on the previous years of mass melt?

Arctic ice showing a gain over the last week http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Fdata%2Fmasie%2F&ei=TtqBU8LrMsOVPJ-4gbgL&usg=AFQjCNFUCip3exsagte01w-VkPAGu-Jmig&bvm=bv.67720277,d.ZWU

Greenland Sea is actually 128,906  higher than it was 54 days ago. Central Arctic is a little higher than 54 days ago.

Region Start End Last 54 Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Last 3 Last 1 Bering Sea 697,324 123,222 -574,102 -393,550 -241,699 -115,261 -22,203 11,232 Barents Sea 645,917 457,488 -188,429 -163,976 -223,226 -63,857 -48,336 25,690 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,032,550 -54,587 -54,587 -54,587 -54,587 4,155 2,049 Kara Sea 933,859 888,854 -45,006 -46,170 -46,170 -39,891 -27,783 1,751 Laptev Sea 897,845 856,855 -40,990 -40,990 -40,990 -36,487 -28,395 3,337 Sea of Okhotsk 853,240 79,942 -773,298 -330,572 -86,154 -23,851 -13,813 -1,996 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 823,902 -29,312 -29,312 -24,790 -10,281 -9,624 1,774 Chukchi Sea 966,006 916,921 -49,085 -49,085 -35,691 -9,874 2,459 0 Central Arctic 3,221,921 3,246,693 24,772 -1,320 -1,320 -1,049 -126 0 Baltic Sea 15,337 0 -15,337 -8,356 -9,170 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,688,530 1,179,599 -508,931 -380,919 -75,117 5,981 -36,203 -9,376 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 1,230,482 -30,422 -30,422 -24,442 13,734 -825 -2,019 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 1,065,340 -5,105 -5,105 8,745 15,352 12,764 0 Greenland Sea 603,416 732,322 128,906 88,573 113,953 97,131 19,995 39,459 Northern Hemisphere (Total) 14,805,115 12,635,360 -2,169,755 -1,446,806 -741,488 -223,244 -147,953 71,918

Edited May 25, 2014 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

Can anyone make sense of the above for me please?

 

Is it just me or is an increase in Greenland Sea ice indicative of Fram exit and not a thing to be gloried in? The warm winter had left both Barentsz and Greenland very low on ice so any increase there, over the start of the melt season, is not 'new ice forming' but old ice drifting out into the peripheral areas.

 

Is not part of the reason that the East Siberian sector is riddled with very early season stretches of open water not that this early season drift, via trans polar drift and Beaufort Gyre has shunted a lot of good ice into areas that will not survive June?

 

Maybe it is a warning from KL to expect a savage June cliff this year with East Siberian already failing ,warm Pacific waters flooding into the Basin via an ice free Bering and the drift into Greenland/Barentsz by good winter ice? Maybe that's it eh?

 

BFTV do you have a take on KL's meaning?, Knocks? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Arctic sea ice extent has dropped 300k over the last week according to the MASIE data here ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv.

While there are ups and downs on a daily basis for different regions, claims of an overall increase in the last week have no basis in reality.

Keith's post only shows an overall increase in the last day (though I'm not sure where his data comes from).

Edited May 25, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Geordiesnow]

are you saying that temps this year or this decade? I see warmer 850s penetrating into the basin in 02,11... I see other similar 850 temps to this year in 00, 06, 08, 09.. at this time of year warmer temps of course will start coming... where did you get the temp charts for previous decades from? it would be interesting to see them...

 

so far the ice is holding up ok..not the freefall we were expecting, although this will happen in June, like last year... the question of course is how far and fast

 

Just to throw this out there... apparently hot water freezes faster than cold water... do we actually want open water to kick start an ice recovery? (yes its more to do with boiling water could it mean though that water at 10 degrees to start might freeze faster than water at 2 though?) is this the reason for the recovery after 07 and 13 based on the previous years of mass melt?

 

I don't mean warm temps into the basin, I mean in general across the Northern Hemisphere, that plus 10C hpa seems to be getting to higher latitudes earlier on in the spring season and its being more persistant, I mean Western Russia has had hottest temp broken recently and its sadly an all too common sight in recent years. It does look however things are looking more normal for the time of year, some mild/warm air around but quite a bit of cooler air and some of that getting quite far southwards from the Arctic. Of course recent years saw rapid spring snow cover retreat and no doubt plumes of warm air heading northwards earlier than normal is contributing to this. 

 

Got to say, looking at the charts, it appears in terms of weather patterns on paper, it looks fairly good for sea ice retention with some quite cold air around although this does start to get diluted but nothing to unusual about that. There are slight hints there could be something more onimous in the medium term but its too early to say how this will develop. Unfortunately the large polyna in the Siberian Sea looks like its getting bigger and it might come down to, no matter what weather patterns we have, this hole could have a major say on what the final ice extent could be. Just largely down to where its formed and how unusual it is to have open water there. 

 

It is a concern it must be said, if it was more near the Laptev Sea then you could say its a little bit more normal for recent years so it will be very interesting how the pattern of sea ice melt will come about with this hole because I can't see it filling in completely now even if we do get any cold air and favorable wind direction over that area. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Big breakup in Lincoln ongoing. I thought the ice there was supposed to be some of the best in the basin? As for forecast weather I see warmer airs pushing into the basin? ATM the forecasts seem very volatile? I'm not seeing a repeat of 2013 though esp. with the drift of ice into melt zones of Barentsz and Greenland? This must also include some of the ice in Laptev so I'm not too sure how well that ice will do either with ESS opening so early and the 'June cliff' about to impact Barentsz and Greenland. I also see Hudson sitting above normal atm? This ice is also set to go so extent/area does have elements that are misleading (IMHO) atm?

[stewfox]

Big breakup in Lincoln ongoing. I thought the ice there was supposed to be some of the best in the basin? As for forecast weather I see warmer airs pushing into the basin? ATM the forecasts seem very volatile? I'm not seeing a repeat of 2013 though esp. with the drift of ice into melt zones of Barentsz and Greenland? This must also include some of the ice in Laptev so I'm not too sure how well that ice will do either with ESS opening so early and the 'June cliff' about to impact Barentsz and Greenland. I also see Hudson sitting above normal atm? This ice is also set to go so extent/area does have elements that are misleading (IMHO) atm?

 

We now start the interesting phase June-September.

 

Temps in the high arctic remain below average and have done for some time.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

The key 2000s graph shows clearly we are only just entering the starting blocks

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_prev_L.png

[BornFromTheVoid]

We now start the interesting phase June-September.

 

Temps in the high arctic remain below average and have done for some time.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

The key 2000s graph shows clearly we are only just entering the starting blocks

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_prev_L.png

 

But unfortunately, north of 80N over covers about a third of the Arctic.

 

The positive anomalies elsewhere more than make up for the slight negative ones on the DMI graph.

 

 

But I agree, June is when things really start to become more volatile and the mean melt rate of recent years begins to stand out.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've repeated this every year since 07' but still some folk choose to ignore so i'll say it again. When DMI 80N starts to show the kind of positive anoms over summer that we see over winter nobody will be wondering when we will see an ice free basin as it will already be here. Until then the cold 1/3 of the central most part of the basin will have its temps dictated by the ice cover below so why bring them in to prove cold???? Of course its cold there's bloody ice 2m below!!!!!

 

EDIT: On a perfectly still summers day in the UK with temps in the 80's. If I were to drop 2m thickness of ice over a 1 sq km plot of land and put a temp sensor in the middle at 2m height what temp would you think you would see?

 

Leave it for 24 hrs and on a repeat temp day what temp would you see?

 

Some of the Arctic is now acting like 'the day after'. Once the ice has gone unheard of temps are recorded across the basin.

 

How does this effect the inner 1/3 of the basin over time?

 

Surely it is looking at the changes and not the areas still covered in ice that will bring us understanding??? What does stating the bleeding obvious bring us ( apart from aggravation and deep frustration .......oh! hold on! is that the point for doing it??????) 

Edited May 27, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

I did some analysis looking at the distribution of 7 day extent drops using the NSIDC data, using the rolling 5 day average to try and get rid of any spurious jumps. I also looked at each individual month of the melt season, rather than the whole. What I found was quite interesting.

The 7 day losses for the first 3 months of the melt season show little significant difference between the first 7 years of the record (in blue) and the last 7 (in red).

 

  

 

June and July is when things begin to diverge significantly. In the first decade July had the most rapid melt rate by a long way, but it seems in recent years that it's been brought forward to June and enhanced in July, as the graphs below show.

 

 

 

 

The distribution then returns to a similar state to the first 7 years in August

 

 

 

In fact, June and July are the only months that show a significant increase in the melt rate overall, with August showing a slight increase and April and May near identical (very slight reductions in melt rate).

 

Average 7 Day Loss

Month:  First7 | Last7

April:    226.3k | 215.2k

May:    352.3k | 346.3k

June:   340.5k | 500k

July:    577.2k | 705.3k

Aug:    436.6k | 489.6k

 

 

This sort of backs up the idea that we shouldn't see anything dramatic or telling before June

 

[Interitus]

Interesting, though the damage is done year round, I would suspect that the larger early season melt at the beginning of the time series is largely ice which doesn't even form in winter now.

[Gray-Wolf]

Therein lies the difference between volume and extent Int! It is only the total loss of sea ice that shows up in the extent plots not the failure to gain thickness or the losses of volume prior to melt out? The 'visual spectacle' is all about extent/area drops as ice cover is still ice cover be it 5m thick or 50cm thick?

 

It's odd that Aug appears 'normal' considering that pre 2000 years would be ice loss around the edges of the pack whereas now it is ice melt all over the basin?

[Interitus]

 

It's odd that Aug appears 'normal' considering that pre 2000 years would be ice loss around the edges of the pack whereas now it is ice melt all over the basin?

 

Well suppose depends what's melting in August - what was previous 'easy melt' in August is now done in earlier in June and July, leaving August to work on the higher latitude and thicker MYI. And of course the lower the total, the lower the possible melt.

[stewfox]

 

EDIT: On a perfectly still summers day in the UK with temps in the 80's. If I were to drop 2m thickness of ice over a 1 sq km plot of land and put a temp sensor in the middle at 2m height what temp would you think you would see?

 

Leave it for 24 hrs and on a repeat temp day what temp would you see?

 

Surely it is looking at the changes and not the areas still covered in ice that will bring us understanding??? What does stating the bleeding obvious bring us ( apart from aggravation and deep frustration .......oh! hold on! is that the point for doing it??????) 

 

53f I think , re next day does the temp stay in the 80s over night ?  If so I would guess 60f (strong melt) ??

 

Everyone knows the DMI is limited largely pointless in the summer months. However if we see western side of the high arctic under further attack with open water wouldn't you expect in years to come the DMI to trend upwards (2/3c high summer ?) with more open water. ?? Its not like the whole region remains ice bound in the summer now.

Edited May 28, 2014 by stewfox

[oldsnowywizard]

So what happened to the DMI temps in the years of open water... ? actually as a guide DMI is good.. the alternative is to work out the 2m temps by using the thickness charts... Over the arctic water most temps are still below 0. .. There are good areas and bad areas as has been the norm for the past 8 years or so. time and time again there are no balanced posts on here from the usual suspects. Can I kindly request that your post is balanced where possible without trying to make out that people who dont agree with your point are stupid. every one is entitled to their opinion. We all expect a big drop off in June, july and august.. it happens.. the big question is what will happen in Sep... 

 

I look forward to watching

[BornFromTheVoid]

So what happened to the DMI temps in the years of open water... ? actually as a guide DMI is good.. the alternative is to work out the 2m temps by using the thickness charts... Over the arctic water most temps are still below 0. .. There are good areas and bad areas as has been the norm for the past 8 years or so. time and time again there are no balanced posts on here from the usual suspects. Can I kindly request that your post is balanced where possible without trying to make out that people who dont agree with your point are stupid. every one is entitled to their opinion. We all expect a big drop off in June, july and august.. it happens.. the big question is what will happen in Sep... 

 

I look forward to watching

 

We get very little open water north of 80N, even in the bad years. So in general, the air temperatures are held close to 0C as the extra energy goes into melting the ice. Using 80N can have its uses in its own right but as a representation of the Arctic, especially in summer, it's like using Scotland temperatures as a representation of the whole UK.

A better alternative is to look at temperatures at 925hPa or 850hPa in mid summer, and to look at the entire Arctic where possible, you know, for balance.

[knocker]

I'm probably being thick here but I'm puzzling how you work out 2m temps from thickness charts. I'm assuming the 1000hPa-900hPa thickness which will obviously give an indication of the warmth of the layer but how do you translate that to specific surface temps? I appreciate the thickness is calculated using the St and pressure but I'm not clear how you work that backwards with the info. available.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I've not done a whole basin fly over with MODIS up to today this year and I'm struck by something that I'm seeing.

 

If you remember last year I had concerns about a possible negative impact of the 'Crackopalypse event' on the ice by 'preconditioning' it for melt by breaking it down into ever smaller floes and so exposing more and more surface area to the ocean/atmosphere compared to the mass of the floe?

 

With the poor summer and high ice retention this concern appeared to have been unfounded....... until I checked the ice condition today.

 

I remember way back in 2008 I had an early spring ( spring tide?) fracture event across the basin and four responded by telling me it was a common event and pulled up past images of similar ( but nowhere near as extensive) fracture zone all showing the old 'lozenge' shaped interlocking floes ( many km in length and width).

 

The ice in the basin today has only one area of such ice ( poleward of the Beaufort Gyre) with the rest merely a hodgepodge of small, rounded floes ( the very ones that survived last year) with a lot of broken ice/open water between them.

 

So I'm now wondering if the conditioning of the ice that those multiple fracture event in feb of 2013 had conditioned the ice for a rapid melt out event under the right conditions? When I think further on the subject this mass of rounded floes would not posses the same slabbing abilities of large, contiguous ice that has been shoved against another such floe. 

 

As such I am resurrecting my concerns about the rate of melt of masses of small, rounded floes compared to multi km lozenge shaped floes.