Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[Gray-Wolf]

Well we appear to be going into melt season as lowest on JAXA?

Edited April 20, 2014 by reef
no personal baiting

[knocker]

This weeks anomaly

Edited April 21, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

This weeks anomaly

 

Glad to see the fram straight way below average temp wise

 

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Computer simulations suggest that 60 to 70% of the fluctuation of the sea ice flowing through the Fram Strait is correlated with fluctuation of 6–7 years in which the Icelandic Low Pressure system extends eastward into the Barents Sea.^[5] The warming in this area has likely amplified Arctic shrinkage, and serves as a positive feedback mechanism for transporting more internal energy to the Arctic Ocean.^[6]

^{------------------------------------}

Edited April 21, 2014 by stewfox

[be cause]

Cryosphere Today's latest Arctic Ice area is only 40000 sqkm above 2007 and is the 2nd lowest for the date ! Arctic shrinkage is back on the agenda for sure .

[keithlucky]

Cryosphere Today's latest Arctic Ice area is only 40000 sqkm above 2007 and is the 2nd lowest for the date ! Arctic shrinkage is back on the agenda for sure .

Nothing new there just look at history

Edited April 21, 2014 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

Ha Ha! Auckland star! What is it with you and vintage Antipodean news reports KL???? Didn't our Hemisphere report weather last century or are you just in love with some Aussie Denier and hang on their every word/snippet/clip?

 

As it is the Arctic reversed it's 'cooling' over 100yrs ago and since has had one of the faster warming rates measured on the planet. Remember T3? how long do you think it took such a large chunk of Ward Hunt to find it's way into the ocean? So how long had the north coast of Ellesmere been in total meltdown by 1940 ( newspaper clip)?

 

I do not think you really understand just how the Arctic used to be do you? The Danish prof that the misleaders used to use to show Arctic melt in the Atlantic section also had volumes on the ice that blocked passage into Barentsz over the summer months ( yes! that's the sea area that can't even put on ice over winter this past decade never mind it's summer ice levels!) , ice standing out of the ocean the height of 4 storey buildings!!! Just imagine the depth such ice had to be to have such height out of the water?? All gone now.

 

As a ball park figure you could say the average ice thickness ,across the basin , over winter was in excess of 20ft thick.....now we have 2 to 7ft thick.

 

Please KL, take the time to read up on what our Arctic used to be like. There is so much documentary evidence just sat there waiting for your attention. This isn't propaganda, this isn't 'spin' it is real and happening to your world whilst you keep yourself blissfully ignorant. 

[keithlucky]

Nothing  we can do about  about natural cycle"s Grey Wolf  its not ignorance having a opinion different to yours.The  history of the Planet shows us,its all down to a number of factors solar factors ,multi decadal Oscillation etc...So there far more evidence backing normal shrinking and expansion of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice.Same explanation for glacier"s growth and shrinkage just read some of  the numerous  papers on Holocene glacier fluctuations,So having an opinion which  is based on facts and natural climate history is wrong, I carry on being a climate realist,rather that support the loony left led by Al Gore and his anti -Flatulism policies.

Edited April 22, 2014 by keithlucky

[knocker]

Nothing  we can do about  about natural cycle"s Grey Wolf  its not ignorance having a opinion different to yours.The  history of the Planet shows us,its all down to a number of factors solar factors ,multi decadal Oscillation etc...So there far more evidence backing normal shrinking and expansion of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice.Same explanation for glacier"s growth and shrinkage just read some of  the numerous  papers on Holocene glacier fluctuations,So having an opinion which  is based on facts and natural climate history is wrong, I carry on being a climate realist,rather that support the loony left led by Al Gore and his anti -Flatulism policies.

 

Yes the Holocene is an interesting study. Of course one mustn't forget that the loony lefties wrote the papers.

 

The climatic changes that occurred at high latitudes during the Holocene were a result of the combined effects of several different forcing factors operating on different timescales, coupled with feedbacks within the Earth system itself. On the longest, millennia! and multimillennial timescale changes took place in the orbital characteristics of the Earth (eccentricity, precession and obliquity; ) relative to the Sun, resulting in variations in the seasonal and latitudinal receipt of solar radiation, although there was virtually no change in the total amount of radiation received by the Earth over the course of the year as a whole. However, changes in the solar radiation emitted by the Sun had an impact on the amount of energy received at the top of the atmosphere. Although this was felt proportionately across the whole of the Earth, the impact on surface conditions varied across the globe because offeedbacks involving cloud, ice and other elements of the Earth system.

 

Variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun have the potential to force major changes in the climate system and work by the Cooperative Holocene Mapping Project (COHMAP) (COHMAP members, 1988) suggested that orbital changes could explain in broad terms the climatic variations since the LGM at about 18 kyr BP. Short-term climate events, which can be extremely important on a regional scale, were not considered.

 

During part of the Early Holocene, over 11-9 kyr BP, summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere was about 8% greater than today due to a difference in orbital precession that aligned the boreal summer solstice with the perihelion (the closest approach of the Earth to the Sun). This gave greater levels of summer insolation at all latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with locations at 60° N receiving about 40° W m-2 more radiation than today (Bradley, 2003). Conversely, January insolation was 8% less than today. During the course of the first half of the Holocene the orbital conditions changed so that the present situation of perihelion occurring close to the winter solstice was reached by the Mid Holocene. In the Early Holocene insolation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere summer were smaller than in the north and they mainly occurred at lower latitudes.

 

The fact that the greatest change in the Early Holocene occurred in the summer was especially important in the Arctic, when the ice-albedo feedback mechanism is most effective and changes in irradiance can be amplified and result in broadscale loss of sea ice.

 

Although there is a good understanding of how the changes in orbital characteristics resulted in variations in the solar radiation received at the top of the atmosphere during the Holocene, it is less clear how such changes to the solar input translated into modifications to the climatic parameters at high latitudes. There are no simple relationships between incoming solar radiation and parameters such as cloud cover or temperature since feedback mechanisms will play an important role, especially in the polar regions. In addition, model simulations have suggested that on the margins of the Arctic, vegetation feedbacks could have played a role in modifYing the changes in solar forcing (TEMPO, 1996).

Edited April 22, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nothing new there just look at history

 

 

If today is nothing new, then we should see similar Arctic-wide losses in the recent past, right?

 

Well, here's August 1939 compared to August last year.

 

[Interitus]

Nothing new there just look at history

 

If you actually read what you posted you might realise that the highlighted phrase 'ice-free Arctic' is taken out of context when it refers specifically to Murmansk which owes its existence to the warming Gulf Stream and is always ice-free.

[stewfox]

If today is nothing new, then we should see similar Arctic-wide losses in the recent past, right?

 

Well, here's August 1939 compared to August last year.

 

 

That chart as you know with the 50 others that go back to the 1890s are fairly meaningless for accuracy as you know doubt know.

If you actually read what you posted you might realise that the highlighted phrase 'ice-free Arctic' is taken out of context when it refers specifically to Murmansk which owes its existence to the warming Gulf Stream and is always ice-free.

 

Its referring to polar temperatures and confirms the warming that took place late 1930s early 1940s. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

That chart as you know with the 50 others that go back to the 1890s are fairly meaningless for accuracy as you know doubt know.

I wasn't aware that they were meaningless, less accurate than satellite observations, but meaningless? Is that claim based on your own analysis?

[Interitus]

That chart as you know with the 50 others that go back to the 1890s are fairly meaningless for accuracy as you know doubt know.

 

Its referring to polar temperatures and confirms the warming that took place late 1930s early 1940s. 

 

The article as a whole does look at Arctic warming towards the middle of the last century that we are all aware of, most likely linked to AMO cycles and as dealt with by others, nothing in comparison with the current state of the Arctic.

The actual source of the posted image though is here - http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/10/arctic-ice-is-the-same-thickness-it-was-70-years-ago/ and originally retrieved from here - http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/62428921?searchTerm=ice%20free%20arctic&searchLimits=exactPhrase%7C%7C%7CanyWords%7C%7C%7CnotWords%7C%7C%7Cl-textSearchScope=*ignore*%7C*ignore*%7C%7C%7Cfromdd%7C%7C%7Cfrommm%7C%7C%7Cfromyyyy%7C%7C%7Ctodd%7C%7C%7Ctomm%7C%7C%7Ctoyyyy%7C%7C%7Cl-word=*ignore*%7C*ignore*%7C%7C%7Csortby

 

Clearly the search term was 'ice-free Arctic' (thus highlighted) and as such is a fail, Murmansk was ice-free not the Arctic.

[knocker]

Every picture tells a story.

 

PHOTO first arctic oil on its way to europe http://greenpeace.org/first-arctic-o â€¦ #SaveTheArctic @gp_sunrise pic.twitter.com/JzWjlUttPB

Edited April 23, 2014 by knocker

[stewfox]

The article as a whole does look at Arctic warming towards the middle of the last century that we are all aware of, most likely linked to AMO cycles and as dealt with by others, nothing in comparison with the current state of the Arctic.

The actual source of the posted image though is here - http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/10/arctic-ice-is-the-same-thickness-it-was-70-years-ago/ and originally retrieved from here - http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/62428921?searchTerm=ice%20free%20arctic&searchLimits=exactPhrase%7C%7C%7CanyWords%7C%7C%7CnotWords%7C%7C%7Cl-textSearchScope=*ignore*%7C*ignore*%7C%7C%7Cfromdd%7C%7C%7Cfrommm%7C%7C%7Cfromyyyy%7C%7C%7Ctodd%7C%7C%7Ctomm%7C%7C%7Ctoyyyy%7C%7C%7Cl-word=*ignore*%7C*ignore*%7C%7C%7Csortby

 

Clearly the search term was 'ice-free Arctic' (thus highlighted) and as such is a fail, Murmansk was ice-free not the Arctic.

 

There was a 20 page review of those charts skeptical science ? I'll try and find it some time

[knocker]

Every picture tells a story.

 

PHOTO first arctic oil on its way to europe http://greenpeace.org/first-arctic-o â€¦ #SaveTheArctic @gp_sunrise pic.twitter.com/JzWjlUttPB

 

Oil Spill Clean Up in U.S. Arctic Waters Requires Increased Infrastructure to Use Full Range of Response Methods

WASHINGTON – A changing climate is increasing the accessibility of U.S. Arctic waters to commercial activities such as shipping, oil and gas development, and tourism, raising concern about the risk of oil spills.  A new report from the National Research Council says that a full suite of proven oil response tools is needed to address potential oil spills in U.S. Arctic waters, but not all of them are readily available.  While much is known about both oil behavior and response technologies in ice-covered environments, there are areas where additional research would enable more informed decisions about the most effective response strategies for different Arctic spill situations, the report adds.

 

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=18625

[Interitus]

There was a 20 page review of those charts skeptical science ? I'll try and find it some time

 

Sorry, think it was BFTV who posted the old charts?

 

Anyhow, just to conclude with the article posted by KL, the rest of which was deftly ignored by the blog tells a different story of the state of the ice pack -

 

"The return of the Soviet icebreaker Sedoff brought to a close a Polar expedition, involuntarily undertaken which led to important discoveries. For 2½ years she had drifted while trapped in Polar ice. Fifteen men volunteered to stay on board the Sedoff until relief came. In the drift to the north-west these men passed nearer to the North Pole than any other ship. Their highest latitude registered was 86 degrees 56min north."

 

Whether the ice was thinner than previously or not, their expedition was fortuitous, not one deliberately taking advantage of ice-melt like has been seen in recent years and not sounding like this would have been possible.

Edited April 23, 2014 by Interitus

[knocker]

Still looking at warm anomalies.

Edited April 24, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

 

A really good paper has been published online a couple of days ago on Nature, called September Arctic sea-ice minimum predicted by spring melt-pond fraction. It's really good because it's interesting, short, and it confirms what I've been suspecting for a while now. And when a paper confirms what one is suspecting, it must be really good, right?

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/more-on-melt-ponds.html

Edited April 26, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

This is interesting.

 

The melting polar icecap is creating waves the size of houses

 

Compared with the monster seas of the Pacific, Arctic waters are a picture of calm—whipping up, at their most violent, into lake-like chop. Or, at least, they were. New research shows that something is whipping up waves that reach five meters (16.4 feet).

+

“That’s a big wave—that’s a house-sized wave. And that has never been observed before in the Arctic,†says Jim Thomson, a physicist at the University of Washington who led the study (paywall).

+

So why is it happening now? â€œAs the ice retreats in the Arctic, which it is doing in a very remarkable way, we’re finding more and more waves,†says Thomson. “And we’re finding a very direct relationship between the height of the waves and the retreat of the ice.â€

 

http://qz.com/204124/the-melting-polar-icecap-is-creating-waves-the-size-of-houses/

[knocker]

Getting ready

 

With the melting season getting ready to go full speed, I'm also busy getting everything ready.

 

First of all on the virtual level by updating the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page. I've slightly altered the daily graphs page, by adding a couple of links, graphs and category names to make it easier to see what graphs and maps stand for. I've also fully updated the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map page that allows to compare this year's progress to all other years in the 2007-2013 period. You can see, for instance, how the ice pack's current retreat from the Alaskan coast stands out in relation to previous years.

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/getting-ready.html

[Interitus]

This is interesting.

 

The melting polar icecap is creating waves the size of houses

 

http://qz.com/204124/the-melting-polar-icecap-is-creating-waves-the-size-of-houses/

 

The authors also co-authored a technical report last year which gives some more details - "Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean"

http://www.apl.washington.edu/research/downloads/publications/tr_1306.pdf

[keithlucky]

The thaw has started in some regions of the Arctic ,and some areas have actually gained sea ice  This Arctic Sea Ice dataset from MASIE only

gion Start End Last 28 Last 14 Last 7 Days Northern Hemisphere 14,789,245 13,959,969 -829,276 -404,018 -16,782 Baffin Bay Gulf of St. Lawrence 1,711,230 1,454,513 -256,717 -151,655 -79,359 Bering Sea 664,041 474,076 -189,965 -160,060 -70,680 Baltic Sea 15,337 8,725 -6,612 -7,013 -653 Beaufort Sea 1,070,445 1,070,445 0 0 0 Chukchi Sea 966,006 966,006 0 0 0 East Siberian Sea 1,087,137 1,087,137 0 0 0 Laptev Sea 897,845 897,845 0 0 0 Canadian Archipelago 853,214 853,214 0 0 0 Hudson Bay 1,260,903 1,260,903 0 0 0 Yellow Sea 0 0 0 0 0 Sea of Okhotsk 829,717 376,689 -453,028 -118,565 223 Central Arctic 3,231,886 3,248,013 16,127 4,581 1,482 Greenland Sea 624,163 649,651 25,488 15,511 13,156 Kara Sea 932,891 935,023 2,132 0 16,849 Barents Sea 634,409 675,523 41,114 15,469 102,200

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, April was the 5th mildest on record for N of 70N. The year to date is by far the mildest on record, and the first to average higher than -20C.

 

......... ........... April ..... ........ ........... ......... January to April

 

[keithlucky]

Arctic sea ice anomaly forcasted to be above normal this year, first time this has been forecasted for 10yrs. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

Edited May 4, 2014 by keithlucky