Arctic Ice Discussion 2014: the thaw...

[Geoffwood]

mullender83, thanks for the reply.

Are you aware that the flux imbalance according to PIOMAS is 0.4Wm-2 to melt ice according to the 'linear trend'. This is swamped by the seasonal variation. The solar flux variation is catalogued at 0.1% or 1.36Wm-2 variable with the most variable part being extreme UV which is always thermalised peaking atmospheric total potential temperature at the stratopause. Some of this is fed continuously into the polar regions especially the winter vortex carrying the solar temperature signal. Also the sum of all mass impingement fed through the magnetic poles becomes thermal. Solar reduction will remove a few Watts per metre squared as real energy from this contribution. Is that so hard to believe?

Total column ozone lags solar activity by quarter phase as maximum solar UVC produces maximum rate of ozone production, not maximum ozone. No eqm due to lag. All UVC and UVB as a variable becomes thermal due to entropy. There are no radiative consequences (losses) before thermalisation. Add to this changes in fundamental wind strengths and subsequent changes in decadal resultant ocean surface currents and your starting to appreciate what solar energy variation can do in small increments. Resultant feedback from ice albedo becomes potentially unstable.

Watch what happens.

[knocker]

Arctic sea ice has been been the last frontier of the North for thousands of years, turning back seafarers, testing the mettle of explorers, and providing a way of life for people circling the top of the world. This animated timeline provides a quick (and highly selective) ride from the days of early Greek exploration to

[masheeuk]

 

 Remember 2012 started with a lot of ice yet still took records for all measures. What would a 2012 type year do to a 2014 start point?

I thought that the August storm that is talked about even now crippled what was otherwise going to be a melt season that would have matched the previous couple of years. Plenty of links below

 

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-storm.html

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/08/a-summer-storm-in-the-arctic/

 

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~arctic/presentations/Arctic_storms_Ben_Harvey.pdf

Edited September 14, 2014 by masheeuk

[Gray-Wolf]

I was never one to buy into GAC12 being the only reason for the record breaking lows that year but it is something that the deniosphere latched onto as a single reason for the exceptional drop. They did the same with 'export' in 07' and so ignored the phenomenal 'in situ melt that occurred then?

 

I'm sure you are not trying to say that 'single events' lead to the exceptional loss years. Exceptional loss years are founded in the terrible state of Arctic sea ice since the losses in volume we saw through the 80's and 90's ( and those on top of the losses we saw since the late 50's) and not individual weather years?

 

Until we regain the lost 70% of sea ice we will remain at the mercy of conflagrations of natural drivers that can , and will, leave the basin with less than one million sq km of ice before the 2030's.

 

2017 is the earliest forecast return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptics' . Where will another 'high melt, high export' leave a year with starting levels similar to 2014? Do we believe that the Arctic can no longer see summer synoptics that conspire to take out ice? what of a 2007' type year with a GAC2012 thrown in?

[Geoffwood]

Hi knocker. Interesting videos. I'm not sure of the use of 'highly selective' as a description. Do you agree with the view that recent low ice levels are of an unprecedented nature?

If so what do you make of the North West Passage being open in at least 1850 and 1903? Do you believe the NWP could be open and navigable with several metres of multi year ice covering the rest of the Arctic?

[Geoffwood]

Gray-Wolf.

"Until we regain the lost 70% of sea ice we will remain at the mercy of conflagrations of natural drivers that can , and will, leave the basin with less than one million sq km of ice before the 2030's."

It's sweeping statements like these that ensure the 'deniosphere' isn't short of members. Resolving a superimposed and unproven trend from a natural cycle without thorough understanding of the strength and capability of the latter is an impossible calculation. Having supreme belief in the answer when it depends ultimately upon subtraction of an unknown, is 'faith', not science.

[Geoffwood]

Does anyone here think we are about at this years minimum? Do we feel that the Arctic will lose anything significantly from here on? What are your views?

[jonboy]

I would like to think we have now reached minimum if not it can only be a few days away. Its interesting how some now say free of ice by 2030 for ever moving goal posts when all the solar indicators would suggest 2030 is unlikely to be the bottom of the cooling so I would predict that by 2030 we are likely to see a full basin all year round not one thats empty

[knocker]

Hi knocker. Interesting videos. I'm not sure of the use of 'highly selective' as a description. Do you agree with the view that recent low ice levels are of an unprecedented nature?

 

 

I would imagine that very unlikely. During the climatic optimum I would think levels could have been similar but I doubt the drop would have occurred within such a short time span.

[Gray-Wolf]

Oddly enough 4 ice holds water.........? Melted ice forms ponds with swells on them ( take a look at the larger melt lakes atop Greenland each year! ) and logs get transported in ice all around the arctic basin ( or used to!!) Isostatic depression and then rebound are far to extreme an ask over the time period knowing what we know about the Greenland ice sheet and its thickness/extent over recent geological time.

[Geoffwood]

Hi jonboy. I agree that this is the time we would expect minimum approximately, of late. DMI are showing air temperatures around the pole falling largely with the ERA40 trend line after another summer as cool as any in the time series. This and last summer could be the coolest consecutive pair. It appears that the mechanisms that transport energy to the winter pole are responsible for the time averaged air temperature anomaly. Anyway, it's averaging several degrees below North of the 80th parallel. Increase in extent won't be far away.

[Geoffwood]

Hi knocker.

"I would imagine that very unlikely. During the climatic optimum I would think levels could have been similar but I doubt the drop would have occurred within such a short time span."

What about 1850 and 1903?

The flux imbalance to do this is time averaged at 0.4Wm-2 according to PIOMAS. Considering climate science works upon 4Wm-2 flux imbalance producing a 1deg global response, nothing dramatic in terms of energy to melt ice has happened to the Arctic.

Why would you think that nature couldn't do this?

Just before the start of the Holocene the ice cores show the Younger Dryas period fluctuated by several degrees globally in less than ten years. Probably closer to five. Vostok ice core courtesy of BAS show 342 similar warming events averaging 0.75 degC/century, 42 of which had a higher trend of 1.3degC/ century.

Edited September 14, 2014 by Geoffwood

[knocker]

I don't rule out natural variations and never have done but I don't know enough about 1850 and 1903 to give a detailed answer. But regarding the Halocene as you no doubt already know the temperature construction is very complicated. It varies regionally, seasonally and from early, middle and late Halocene.as can be seen from the isotopic record from the GISP2 ice core. Impossible to cover this in a simple answer, and I wouldn't even attempt it but basically we are talking orbital variations, insolation changes and the interaction with natural variations that aren't fully understood.

 

But as much as I consider natural variations I also rule in CO₂  forcing as being the current main driver and the scientific case for this is compelling

Edited September 14, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

ASI 2014 update 9: minimum around the corner

 

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/09/asi-2014-update-9-minimum-around-the-corner.html

Edited September 15, 2014 by knocker

[Geoffwood]

Hi knocker. Thanks for the reply. You say,

"I don't rule out natural variations and never have done but I don't know enough about 1850 and 1903 to give a detailed answer."

Well you know the North West Passage was open those years because it was navigable. What would your 'gut instinct' tell you about Arctic conditions during and around those years, with knowledge that you believe rapid changes are 'unnatural'?

You also say,

" But regarding the Halocene as you no doubt already know the temperature construction is very complicated. It varies regionally, seasonally and from early, middle and late Halocene.as can be seen from the isotopic record from the GISP2 ice core. Impossible to cover this in a simple answer, and I wouldn't even attempt it"

See my text processor (mind) is picking up a misspelling from this copy and paste! Construction is complicated? (It's not difficult to reconstruct a 'hockey stick'! )

Are you saying we don't know what climate was like during the Holocene, or that we do? If we don't then how do we know what is 'unprecedented'?

"but basically we are talking orbital variations, insolation changes and the interaction with natural variations that aren't fully understood."

Interaction with natural variations that aren't fully understood! Now we are on common ground buddy!

Hence subtraction as a sum of an unknown quantity from a known quantity leads to an unknown answer. By your own powers of deduction, you have no idea of the potency of natural drivers.

You also go on to say,

"But as much as I consider natural variations I also rule in CO2 forcing as being the current main driver and the scientific case for this is compelling."

Now, seeing as discussion of this is directly relevant to 'opinion' of Arctic sea ice but considered 'off topic' are you goading me to decimate the fabric of your 'faith'?

If you don't want it here. Then where?

Edited September 15, 2014 by Geoffwood

[Geoffwood]

Is observation of current levels of Antarctic sea ice considered off topic?

Is consideration of global sea ice off topic?

[oldsnowywizard]

There is a separate thread for antarctic discussions...global ice I guess can be discussed here ? Widespread -10 showing up at the end of the week and clearly the cold is building up...We should see increases within the week. No heat spikes on dmi yet which is a little strange ..is there no heat in the ocean or is it unable to get released at the moment ?

[Geoffwood]

Ok. So I could be in trouble if I stick this in here!

Cryosphere showing 'all time record high extent' for Antarctic sea ice!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Guess that must be the warming effect of CO2?

Edited September 16, 2014 by Geoffwood

[stewfox]

Ok. So I could be in trouble if I stick this in here!

Cryosphere showing 'all time record high extent' for Antarctic sea ice!

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Guess that must be the warming effect of CO2?

 

I hope so  because you have already been told and you seem to encourage confrontation

 

This thread has been without it for the last 3/4 years.

[Geoffwood]

oldsnowywizard, thanks for the reply.

Yes DMI is showing rapid, systematic decline and as you report, without the often massive spiking up we often see. The drivers that produce these spikes are the key to understanding the winter high temp anomalies. They are likely to be due to circulation patterns.

It is interesting but obvious to note that if we believe that the climate can vary, then ocean heat content does not buffer this effect. Rather the effect drives the flux into or out of the ocean. May seem backward, but every temperature downturn is immediately preceded by warmth and vice versa. When warm ocean air meets cold we get heavy precipitation. The ocean heat has the ability to drive cubic km of water as snow onto the land. Greenland experienced 11Gt in 24hrs the day before yesterday!

Open ocean can lose heat to space. Ice can cap those losses to a degree. Hence the tendency to cycle.

[Geoffwood]

stewfox,

"I hope so because you have already been told and you seem to encourage confrontation

This thread has been without it for the last 3/4 years."

Sorry that you feel that way stew'.

Sometimes I can't help coming back with a little humour and bending the rules a little. It's a weakness!

It was never my intention to offend.

We are all adults, I assume, and capable of defending our opinions. I am quite sensitive to arguments that individuals cannot substantiate from basics. If I sense that then I will make comment. I react to others and treat them largely as they treat me.

I have followed sea ice and climate on a daily basis for years studying both the data and the science.

My apologies, although I'm not really bothered if reef deletes the comment you highlighted, so I haven't apologised to you in order to save it.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Geoffwood

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS/JAXA and NSIDC extent continue to gradually fall, with both reaching new lows on their latest updates, though neither are likely to beat any more years minima. That would leave the NSIDC minimum for 2014 as 6th lowest on record, and 7th lowest for IJIS/JAXA.

CT area has probably passed it's minimum already, being over 100k above its lowest value so far, so 7th lowest minimum on record there. 

[Geoffwood]

BFTV. Are we talking extent or volume?

[stewfox]

BFTV. Are we talking extent or volume?

 

 

Extent

 

IJIS (15%) has shown a increase yesterday

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

I think by monday we can finally say the melt season has ended.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not sure if this is the correct thread, but I couldn't find the old one....

What has happened to the Arctic sea ice minimum thread?

MIA