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Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita

australian hurricane season

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#1 tropicbreeze

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Posted 03 April 2014 - 04:12

The TCWC Brisbane has picked up on the low near the Solomons

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 2 April 2014
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 5 April 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  

A weak low is currently located close to the Solomon Islands near 10S 159.5E. The low is expected to remain slow moving over the northern Coral Sea during the outlook period, but may adopt a more westerly track over the weekend. Further slow devlopment is expected over the outlook period.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday        Very low   
Friday          Very low   
Saturday        Low     



TCWC Darwin has it moving across Cape York Peninsula and into the Arafura Sea

In the longer term, a tropical low in the northern Coral Sea is expected to move west and may cross Cape York Peninsula into the northern region mid next week.
 


Edited by Somerset Squall, 08 May 2014 - 20:34 .

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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#2 tropicbreeze

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 01:44

JTWC Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21 Issued at 03/0330Z

97P_030332sams.jpg

EC is leaning towards it being close to Darwin near the middle of April.
 

ecmwf_mslp-240h20140403195001.gif


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#3 Somerset Squall

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Posted 04 April 2014 - 23:47

JTWC have upgraded the system to Tropical Cyclone 23P, with winds of 35kts. Shear should prevent significant intensification over the next day or so as 23P heads westwards, but should eventually ease, allowing intensification as the system heads westwards towards the Cape York Peninsula.


Edited by Somerset Squall, 04 April 2014 - 23:47 .

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Thunderstorms 2005: 17!! Thunderstorms 2006: 13, Thunderstorms 2007: 7, Thunderstorms 2008: 10, Thunderstorms 2009: 6, Thunderstorms 2010: 2, Thunderstorms 2011: 2, Thunderstorms 2012: 6, Thunderstorms 2013: 6

Thunderstorms 2014: 15- January 3rd (2), January 6th (1), January 7th (1), 2nd April (1), 19th May (2) 22nd May (1), 29th May (1) 7th June (1), 27th June (1), 28th June (1), 18th July (1), 19th July (2),

#4 tropicbreeze

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Posted 05 April 2014 - 02:00

Now this one is starting very similarly to Monica, near same place, near same track, only about a week or two earlier in the season.

 

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 10:54 am EST Saturday 5 April 2014. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.

IDQ65001.jpg

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0110 UTC 05/04/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 156.3E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:    
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/0600: 12.0S 155.6E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  994
+12:  05/1200: 12.1S 154.9E:     065 [120]:  035  [065]:  993
+18:  05/1800: 12.3S 154.5E:     075 [140]:  040  [075]:  992
+24:  06/0000: 12.4S 154.1E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  992
+36:  06/1200: 12.7S 153.4E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  989
+48:  07/0000: 12.9S 152.9E:     130 [235]:  055  [100]:  983
+60:  07/1200: 12.7S 152.3E:     150 [275]:  060  [110]:  980
+72:  08/0000: 12.6S 151.6E:     165 [310]:  065  [120]:  977
+96:  09/0000: 12.2S 149.8E:     210 [390]:  085  [155]:  960
+120: 10/0000: 12.6S 147.5E:     300 [555]:  085  [155]:  961
REMARKS:
The tropical low has been moving southwest slowly and maintaining deep convection near the centre. The system has shown improved organisation in the past 12 hours and is expected to continue this trend due to being located in a favourable environment. The system is expected to maintain a slow west-southwestwards track and continue deepening in the next 24 hours.

The current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis yielding a DT=3.0. The Final T number is based on MET=PT=2.5.

Longer term movement is likely to remain in a general westwards quadrant, however it is a little difficult to say whether this will be north of the west or south of the west.

The system is not expected to affect Queensland weather during the next 72 hours.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0700 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.
 


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#5 tropicbreeze

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Posted 05 April 2014 - 13:41

Now Tropical Cyclone Ita. Seems to want to pay Port Moresby a visit. But GFS has it heading down along the Queensland coast still offshore, by Sunday April 13 out from about Bundaberg.
 


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#6 tropicbreeze

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:59

There's still a huge spread in the model tracks. In a weeks time Ita could be anywhere between 2 points about 2000 kms apart. At the moment it's moving west (280 degrees) at 6 KPH.


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#7 Vorticity0123

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 21:33

The JTWC has upped the intensity of Ita to 60 kt, mainly due to increased central convection and well-defined banding to the north of the system. Furhtermore, the peak intensity of Ita has been increased to 110 kt (near landfall) which could indicate that Ita may be a big threat for the Australian coast near Cairns. 

 

The forecast track of the JTWC can be seen below:

sh2314.gif

Of note is that the track forecast of Ita has also switched to a of recurve scenario with a more northerly placed starting point.

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://www.ssd.noaa....3P_floater.html


Edited by Vorticity0123, 07 April 2014 - 21:35 .

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#8 tropicbreeze

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 01:51

Although Ita is still drifting, seems the models are getting a little closer together. EC seems to favour the crossing of the Cape near Coen, into the Gulf and then swing back to the south east and cross the coast again near Karumba.

 

From Brisbane TCWC at: 0115 UTC 08/04/2014

REMARKS:
Using EMBD Centre with a 1.1 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5.  MET is also 4.5, though it is arguable that the 21Z image from 27 hours ago had a LG eye with a LG surround, though this was a very transient feature at the time. Now 12 hour-old Ascat data showed numerous values near the centre of at least 50 knots, broadly consistent with the current DT. 

 

TC Ita remains near stationary, trapped between mid level ridges over eastern Australia and to Ita's east.  The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to ridge zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, thereby inducing the forecast westward motion.  Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with some models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and thereby allowing Ita to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, whilst other global models introduce an upper trough of sufficient amplitude that Ita remains in the Coral Sea or moves over northern Queensland.

 

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow.  The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term.

 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

 

IDQ65001.png

Issued at 11:08 am EST Tuesday 8 April 2014


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#9 Somerset Squall

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 06:19

Cat 4 on the Australian Scale before landfall I see. Looking increasingly dangerous for anyone in it's path. Winds are up to 65kts currently, making Ita a Severe Tropical Cyclone (BOM classification). Interesting point from BOM about interaction with Papua New Guinea, this looks to already be having an effect with shallower convection on the northern side of the developing, ragged eye.


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Thunderstorms 2005: 17!! Thunderstorms 2006: 13, Thunderstorms 2007: 7, Thunderstorms 2008: 10, Thunderstorms 2009: 6, Thunderstorms 2010: 2, Thunderstorms 2011: 2, Thunderstorms 2012: 6, Thunderstorms 2013: 6

Thunderstorms 2014: 15- January 3rd (2), January 6th (1), January 7th (1), 2nd April (1), 19th May (2) 22nd May (1), 29th May (1) 7th June (1), 27th June (1), 28th June (1), 18th July (1), 19th July (2),

#10 Sainsbo

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Posted 08 April 2014 - 09:43

sh2314.gif

It seems like Ita may make a brief landfall north of Cairs, with winds of 100kts (around 115mph). Sea temperatures in the region are currently very warm, quite capable of supporting a cat 3 as being modelled by the JTWC.

 

No eye as of yet but I'm sure we'll see one start to emerge today.

 

bd0-lalo.gif


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2013:
Hottest day: 32.2C
Coldest night: -6.3C
Highest Wind Gust: 41.4Mph
Wettest Day: 25.8mm

Total rainfall: 704.2mm


#11 tropicbreeze

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Posted 09 April 2014 - 02:22

GFS has Ita crossing the coast then swinging back into the Coral Sea and intensifying, but continuing south east. EC has it just making the Gulf then turning back south east.

 

IDQ65001.png

Issued at 10:45 am EST Wednesday 9 April 2014.


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#12 tropicbreeze

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Posted 09 April 2014 - 08:20

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 4:42 pm EST on Wednesday 9 April 2014

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Cairns.

 

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category 3, was estimated to be 770 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River and 710 kilometres northeast of Cooktown, and moving west at 15 kilometres per hour.

 

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction towards the far north Queensland coast, while intensifying. GALES extend 220 kilometres out from the centre and may develop between Coen and Cooktown late Thursday and develop elsewhere between Cape Grenville and Cairns during Friday.

 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita poses a significant threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast and at this stage it is expected to approach the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery and make landfall late Friday as a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS near the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location.

 

The sea may rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide between Cape Grenville and Cairns close to landfall on Friday, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas possible. People living in low lying areas that may be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

 

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the Peninsula and northern parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts on Thursday and persist into Friday.People between Cape Grenville and Cairns should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 11pm EST.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

 

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 150.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 963 hectoPascals

 

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Wednesday 09 April.


  • 0

Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#13 Sainsbo

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Posted 09 April 2014 - 13:13

Ita is slowly but surely becoming more organised, currently with maximum sustained winds of 90mph, gusting up to 115mph. With low shear and high sea surface temperatures, Ita should continue to intensify for the next couple of days, peaking as a fairly weak Category 4 on the Australian scale (Cat 3 on the SS Scale).

 

Doesn't look overly menacing to look at currently but I'm sure it'll be being watched closely by people in North Eastern Queensland.

rbtop0-lalo.gif


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2013:
Hottest day: 32.2C
Coldest night: -6.3C
Highest Wind Gust: 41.4Mph
Wettest Day: 25.8mm

Total rainfall: 704.2mm


#14 Somerset Squall

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Posted 09 April 2014 - 18:36

Ita continues to streadily strengthen as has already been said, winds are up to 85kts according to BOM. I think some quicker strengthening could be imminant; the CDO is much more symmetrical now Ita has moved away from Papua New Guinea, and the eye has become better defined, albeit cloud filled. Shear is still low and waters very toasty, which lends weight to the possibility of a burst of intensification if that eye clears out.


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Thunderstorms 2005: 17!! Thunderstorms 2006: 13, Thunderstorms 2007: 7, Thunderstorms 2008: 10, Thunderstorms 2009: 6, Thunderstorms 2010: 2, Thunderstorms 2011: 2, Thunderstorms 2012: 6, Thunderstorms 2013: 6

Thunderstorms 2014: 15- January 3rd (2), January 6th (1), January 7th (1), 2nd April (1), 19th May (2) 22nd May (1), 29th May (1) 7th June (1), 27th June (1), 28th June (1), 18th July (1), 19th July (2),

#15 tropicbreeze

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Posted 09 April 2014 - 22:33

BOM is now saying it's possible Ita might make it to Cat 5.

 

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1839 UTC 09/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.5S
Longitude: 148.7E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: west [262 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 959 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 85 nm [155 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  10/0000: 11.8S 147.8E:     025 [045]:  085  [155]:  960
+12:  10/0600: 12.1S 147.2E:     035 [065]:  090  [165]:  955
+18:  10/1200: 12.3S 146.4E:     050 [090]:  095  [175]:  950
+24:  10/1800: 12.9S 146.1E:     060 [115]:  100  [185]:  944
+36:  11/0600: 14.0S 145.2E:     080 [150]:  105  [195]:  939
+48:  11/1800: 14.8S 144.4E:     100 [185]:  075  [140]:  950
+60:  12/0600: 15.7S 144.0E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  983
+72:  12/1800: 16.7S 144.3E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  997
+96:  13/1800: 18.2S 147.6E:     185 [340]:  030  [055]: 1001
+120: 14/1800: 19.2S 150.5E:     270 [500]:  035  [065]:  996
REMARKS:
Centre embedded 0.6 degrees in CMG. DT is 5.0. MET supports. Final T 5.0. System continues at a near constant intensity in the high category 3 range during the previous 24 hours with transient eyes becoming evident then dissipating.

 

Little change in the environment or prognosed track. If anything NWP models are becoming more tightly clustered about a landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery on Friday night AEST 11/4/13. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind shear enviroment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the system.

 

Steering is towards the west under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending from Queensland into the central Coral Sea. This ridge is eroded late in the week by an approaching SWT allowing southerly and eventually southeasterly movement. Although the environment is favourable for further development, Ita has remained at a constant intensity during the last 24 hours, possibly due to interaction with the Papua New Guinea land mass immediately to the north. Further intensification is forecast from later Thursday as the system moves away from this influence. Have limited intensity to upper category 4 at this stage as CIMSS winds depict a tongue of slightly elevated deep layer shear later in the track, and this is reflected in the STIPS and SHIPS prognoses which are currently capping at approximately 100 to 105 knots [1 minute]. Nevertheless, intensification to category 5 is possible.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#16 crikey

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 05:09

Been collecting info and picks on this event if interested

https://weathercycle...one-april-2014/

and the Australian forum to follow for this is here

current page 52
http://forum.weather...pics/1255431/62
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#17 Somerset Squall

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 07:27

Ita us now a cat 5 on the Australian scale, with winds of 110kts according to BOM. Note that this isn't a cat 5 on the SS scale, we will find out shortly what JTWC assesses the wind speed at. The eye has cleared out, and is surrounded by very deep convection. Further intensification is likely. Queensland are bracing themselves for a destructive monster.
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Thunderstorms 2005: 17!! Thunderstorms 2006: 13, Thunderstorms 2007: 7, Thunderstorms 2008: 10, Thunderstorms 2009: 6, Thunderstorms 2010: 2, Thunderstorms 2011: 2, Thunderstorms 2012: 6, Thunderstorms 2013: 6

Thunderstorms 2014: 15- January 3rd (2), January 6th (1), January 7th (1), 2nd April (1), 19th May (2) 22nd May (1), 29th May (1) 7th June (1), 27th June (1), 28th June (1), 18th July (1), 19th July (2),

#18 Styx

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:10

At least the main banana growing areas won't be directly affected. At $3 a kilo the value is terrific at the moment! Yasi ravaged the crop and sent prices to $12.

 

LIVE Twitter feed https://twitter.com/...q=#ita&src=typd

ABC Far North Qld radio http://www.abc.net.au/farnorth/ ( It doesn't work for me but it might for you..)


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Hobart, Tasmania 2013-14 Mean temperature anomaly (Comparison 1981-2010 )
 

September +1.3

October +0.3

November -1.1

December +0.7

January +0.6

February +0.7

March +1.5

April +0.4

May +0.3 

June +1.0

July +1.1

August -0.5 To 13th

 

Live image of Hobart looking toward the city and kunanyi/Mt. Wellington ( 1270m ) http://www.rosebay.t...cam/medium.html


#19 tropicbreeze

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 08:16

Issued at 5:00 pm EST Thursday 10 April 2014.

IDQ65001.png


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Average Annual rainfall (10 years of records): 1722 mm

Highest rainfall 2010/11 wet season (Sep. to May.): 2408.5 mm

Highest monthly rainfall Jan 2014: 782.4 mm

Highest 2 hour rainfall 15 January 2014: 194 mm

Average thunderstorm days per year: 81


#20 crikey

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Posted 10 April 2014 - 09:07

ACCESS G model has the remnants tracking ALL the way down the Queensland coast to 23s before moving off shore next Tuesday
If that scenario comes off . 4-5 days of big trouble for QLD coasters
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