Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

 

Dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Ita is nearing landfall in Australia’s Queensland state. Maximum sustained winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were 155 mph at 18 UTC on Thursday, just 1 mph below the threshold of Category 5 strength. The Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology estimated that Ita had a central pressure of 930 mb at 18 UTC. Satellite loops show a moderate-sized tropical cyclone surrounded by an intense eyewall with very cold cloud tops. Radar loops from Cairns, Australia show spiral bands from Ita are already bringing heavy rains to the coast. With moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and ocean temperatures near 28°C, Ita should be able to maintain Category 4 strength until landfall occurs Friday evening local time in Australia. The center of Ita is likely to pass very close to Cooktown (population 2,400) as a major hurricane, and near Cairns (population 143,000) as a weakening Category 1 storm. Ita will likely be the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Queensland since Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit on February 2, 2011. Yasi killed one person and did $3.6 billion in damage.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2661

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

In the last hour,  Ita was downgraded from category 5 to 4 on the BOM cyclone scale. A slow progress towards the coast, now due to cross at 10pm AEST ( 1pm British time ).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

Ita making a bullseye toward Cape Flattery and is 2 hours away now to the coast . Moments ago the anemometer registered 154kmhr/95mph. I wonder how high it will go before the wind inevitably takes it out.

Cape Flattery real-time observations: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94188.shtml

Cape Flattery is a largely unpopulated port facility.

 

Cooktown is 30 miles south and has a population of 2000, so the focus is on what happens to this town. Some have stayed home, a few hundred are in the towns evacuation shelter, most have orderly evacuated.

Peak wind speed 82kmhr/52mph so far. A gentle introduction to the night for the folk there right now..

Cooktown real-time observations:http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.95283.shtml

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle weakened Ita a little before landfall, and prevented the cyclone making cat 5 on the SS scale, instead peaking at 135kts, which is the upper reaches of cat 4.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

Looks like the Cape Flattery weather station got knocked out  at around 10:00 pm, at 9:00 pm it was getting gusts to 159 kph (86 kts). Currently Ita is cat 2 and still weakening with rough terrain/land interaction, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

Cat 1 now.

 

From Brisbane TCWC at: 0044 UTC 12/04/2014:REMARKS:Tropical Cyclone Ita has crossed the coast near Cape Flattery at 11-12UTC [9-10pm EST] as a severe TC with with maximum wind estimated at 80-90 knots. Weakening commenced prior to landfall as the inner eyewall weakened in response to a developing secondary eye wall. Ita has rapidly weakened since crossing time due to land interaction and entraintment of dry air with moderate northerly shear.Surface observations suggest intensity is capped at 45 knots 10 minute mean. Satellite presentation is still reasonable, however the radar signature has become quite poor and centre lcoation is based on observations and persistence.TC Ita will weaken over elevated terrain over the next 12 hours. However a track back over the Coral Sea in the next 24 to 48 hours is suggested by most models. Coincident with this movement, interaction with an upstream mid to upper level trough is expected. Development into a hybrid tropical system is supported by a number of models, and strong gale winds may redevelop in some quadrants during this time period, together with heavy rain on the western flank.Warning policy will transition from issuance of tropical cyclone products to severe weather warning products for the hybrid system.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Kudos to JTWC for consistantly indicating a sharper turn to the south and re-emergence over water, which looks likely to occur soon. BOM have come into line now, forecasting Ita to maintain cat 1 intensity (Australian scale) as it moves southeastwards parallel to the coast and eventually out of the tropics.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

Ita has moved off the coast near Lucinda. The weather station at Lucinda is currently recording gusts to 80 kph (43 kts). Strongest gusts of 96 kph (52 kts) were recorded about 16:30 UTC 12/04/14.

 

post-22057-0-32502700-1397340699_thumb.j

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania
  • Location: Hobart, Tasmania

A low impact cyclone season in Australia, perhaps this will be the last one to cross the coast until the end of the year?

 

Only Ita and Christine really threatened to cause a lot of damage and disruption, but both ended up not doing much at all. It is Sunday afternoon now and the helicopter news footage of Cooktown and surrounds that I am now watching on ABC24 shows a few big trees down, some have come down on houses, but that's about it. Quite a bit of flooding in some coastal areas, but this usually happens from time to time during the wet season anyway, and you don't need a cyclone for that to happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

It never looks much from a chopper in the air through a TV screen, but it does have a lot of impact on the community on the ground.

 

From Brisbane TCWC at: 0706 UTC 13/04/2014:REMARKS:Tropical Cyclone Ita is rapidly moving in a southeast direction along the southern tropical Queensland coast. The circulation appears quite ragged on a merged radar sequence, though a distinct band of heavy rainfall is evident to the east and south of the systems estimated centre. One hourly rainfall totals in excess of 100mm have been recorded in this band during this afternoon and there have also been reports of waterspouts off the coast of Bowen. Surface observations from Bowen at 3pm EST also indicated that the central pressure of the system still remains at 995hPa.Tropical Cyclone Ita is still a moderate to deep tropical circulation being steered in southeast direction by a mid-level trough moving across eastern Australia. The CIMMS wind shear product indicates that only low to moderate vertical wind shear currently exists across the system, though this is expected to increase into Monday with the approach of the mid-level trough. As the vertical wind shear increases across the system, Ita is expected to transition into an extra-tropical system and intensify in the process with winds expected to increase to 45 knots around the system, possibly even reaching storm force in the northeast quadrant by early Monday. A Dvorak analysis of the system is currently not possible due to its proximity to land, however this may change tonight as the system moves offshore.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

 

post-22057-0-65477000-1397374362_thumb.j

Issued at 5:05 pm EST Sunday 13 April 2014.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

TC Ita is now well off the coast and continuing to move rapidly east south east at 31 kph. It's expected to transition into an extratropical system within 24 hours. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

TC Ita is now well off the coast and continuing to move rapidly east south east at 31 kph. It's expected to transition into an extratropical system within 24 hours.

 

 

Indeed, the system is currently moving at a very quick pace, and it will very soon have no impacts anymore on the Australian mainland.

 

Furthermore, Ita is unravelling very rapidly. Convection, which was previously present over the system, has been sheared ahead of the system and weakened. The LLCC (low level circulation centre) is also no longer apparent on a visible imagery loop given below:

 

Posted Image

Visible satellite loop of Ita from NOAA.

 

Extratropical transition seems to be on the way (if it hasn't been completed already) and therefore, I think JTWC and BOM will soon issue their last advisory on Ita.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/23P/23P_floater.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

Edited by Vorticity0123
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

Ita has now transitioned to an extra tropical system and this will likely be the final technical bulletin.

 

IDQ20018TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGIONIssued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 0726 UTC 14/04/2014Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone ItaIdentifier: 15UData At: 0600 UTCLatitude: 23.7SLongitude: 155.1ELocation Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]Movement Towards: east southeast [122 deg]Speed of Movement: 18 knots [33 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]Central Pressure: 992 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 0 nm [0 km]Radius of 64-knot winds:  Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]Dvorak Intensity Code: N/APressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time   : Location   : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC]   : degrees :   nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06:  14/1200: 24.3S 156.6E: 040 [080]:  050  [095]:  992+12:  14/1800: 24.7S 157.6E: 055 [100]:  050  [095]:  992+18:  15/0000: 25.3S 158.6E: 065 [125]:  045  [085]:  995+24:  15/0600: 25.9S 159.9E: 080 [145]:  045  [085]:  995+36:  15/1800: 27.6S 162.6E: 100 [185]:  040  [075]:  993+48:  16/0600: 30.9S 166.8E: 120 [220]:  035  [065]:  996+60:  16/1800: 36.0S 170.2E: 140 [255]:  035  [065]:  994+72:  17/0600: 38.2S 170.3E: 155 [290]:  035  [065]:  990+96:  18/0600: :   :   :    +120: 19/0600: :   :   :    REMARKS:Analysis of the cloud system and ASCAT data suggests that the system has completed its transition to a vigorous extra-tropical low. Movement will continue to be rapidly ESE due to NW'ly steering from a strong upper trough over eastern Australia. Deep layer wind shear over the system is estimated to be 30 - 40 knots.Surface observations from Cato Island indicate that the system has intensified during the extra-tropical transition, with maximum sustained winds pushed up to 50 knots. Dvorak analysis no longer relevant. Confidence in the LLCC position is fair, using visible satelite imagery and surface automatic weather station observations.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

The last word on Ita may not have been written yet. From the NZ MetService:SUBTROPIC HIGH SEAS FORECASTChange forecast: SubtropicIssued by MetService at 6:53pm Monday 14 Apr 2014Forecast valid to Midnight Tuesday 15 Apr 2014: Poor visibility in areas of rain within 180 nautical miles east of Front 30S 162E 35S 166E 40S 166E moving east 10kt. West of New Zealand, east of Front, south of 37S: Northerly quarter 25kt developing by 141800UTC. Low 999hPa near 40S 160E moving east 10kt. West of Front,south of 35S: Clockwise 25kt about Low, with gales as in Australian issue. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita 992hPa near 23.7S 155.1E moving eastsoutheast 18kt. West of 163E,north of 32S:Clockwise 25kt about Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ita ,with storms and gales as in Australia warning, and poor visibility in areas of rain.Outlook following 72 hoursFormer Cyclone Ita near 25S 160E moving south-southeast and deepening, becoming slow moving near 37S 165E around 170000UTC. In a broad area west of 180: Clockwise 25kt to gale about cyclone Ita, with storms close to centre. Heavy swell in gale and storm areas.SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKIssued: 2:52pm Monday 14 Apr 2014Valid from Wednesday 16 April 2014 to Saturday 19 April 2014An intense low of tropical origin should become slow-moving over the Tasman Sea to the west of New Zealand on Thursday, then move southeast across the southern South Island on Saturday or Sunday. This is likely to bring strong to gale east to northeast winds and moderate to heavy rain to many North Island areas. There is some uncertainty in the predicted position of the low which will determine which areas get the most wind and rain. 

post-22057-0-35484200-1397488568_thumb.p

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:49 am 16-Apr-2014HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FORECAST FOR MANY PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ZEALANDA deep low is forecast to move west of the North Island early Thursday and lie slow moving west of central New Zealand through to Friday night before weakening and crossing southern New Zealand late Saturday. Easterly gales are expected to affect many parts of northern and central New Zealand during Thursday, with severe gales for a time about exposed western and central areas from Northland down to Wellington and also about northern and western parts of the South Island. Gusts of 110 to 140 km/h are likely in exposed parts of these areas during Thursday, which have the potential to damage trees, powerlines and unsecured structures and make driving hazardous.

 

A burst of heavy rain is also expected for many parts of the North Island and northern and eastern parts of the South Island. Further significant falls are expected about Nelson, Marlborough, Wellington and Taranaki, especially during Thursday, with 200 to 300mm likely about the ranges and 70 to 100mm about some low lying areas. Warning amounts of rain are also expected about the ranges of Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty during Thursday. People in these areas are advised to watch out for rapidly rising streams and rivers, surface flooding, slips and hazardous driving conditions.

 

Note, many other parts of the North Island, including Auckland, are expected to see a brief intense period of rain during Thursday and a watch is in force for these areas.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

This one looks set to dump more rain on us than Lusi did, including in the drought-stricken Waikato where they will love it.  Canterbury does not need it but it looks like we're in for a soaking Thursday into Friday.  Abel Tasman, Nelson and Blenheim/Kaikoura looks set for some serious rain totals.

 

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-warnings

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/severe-weather-watch

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

 

This one looks set to dump more rain on us than Lusi did, including in the drought-stricken Waikato where they will love it.  Canterbury does not need it but it looks like we're in for a soaking Thursday into Friday.  Abel Tasman, Nelson and Blenheim/Kaikoura looks set for some serious rain totals.

 

When taking a look at satellite imagery, it can be seen that Ita has become a large system with a thick area of clouds, likely to produce a lot of rain.

 

Posted Image

IR -satellite image of the southwestern Pacific. (Courtesy: CIMSS)

 

The clouds of Ita are the most intense in the northern part of the cyclone, which can be seen in the NHC-enhanced satellite image from CIMSS below:

 

 

Posted Image

NHC-enhanced satellite image of the southwestern Pacific. (Courtesy: CIMSS)

 

What can be seen is that the cloud tops are the coldest in the northernmost part of Ita (with cloud tops of less than -50*C, check the scale on the right edge of the image). This is possibly an indication that the precipitation in that area is the most severe.

 

Of note is that the height/thickness of the clouds is not necessarily a good indicator for the amount of precipitation that falls out of it. It is better to take into account model precipitation forecasts, like the one from New Zealand Metservice below:

 

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day

 

Interesting to see on the link given above is that the clear frontal structure (as of 16 April 00 UTC) becomes distorted immediately after the first image. It seems to be that a third 'front' is colliding with the clearly discernible cold front (on the first image located on the extreme northern part of New Zealand), forming a new frontal system which moves southeastward over New Zealand.

 

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=austeast∏=irn&sat=gms

http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-forecast/rain-forecast-3-day

Edited by Vorticity0123
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ

Here she is over NZ right now:

 

post-17125-0-18173200-1397694239_thumb.p

 

Metservice blog on wind speeds and rainfall for the North Island over the last 24 hours:

 

http://about.metservice.com/homepagerss/blog-mid-storm-update/

 

Light rain in Christchurch at present, but all set to change mid-afternoon.

Edited by Chris W
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...