Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2014

[Summer Sun]

GFS this afternoon gives an improving picture through the Easter weekend with high pressure moving in during Easter Sunday and more so for Easter Monday

 

 

A few runs from GFS now are showing high pressure won't be too far away

Edited April 9, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Those predicting a cool and unsettled Easter may need to revise their predictions. Models are trending less cold and drier.

[Purga]

Those predicting a cool and unsettled Easter may need to revise their predictions. Models are trending less cold and drier.

EDIT --- LOL!http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/vava.gifhttp:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png

[MP-R]

Imagine what a great spell of weather this would be in winter. Two frosty sunny days to come followed by snow moving in off the continent then a possible battleground scenario next week.

[Milhouse]

Some pretty grotty charts on show tonight from some models. Will feel unpleasant in a northerly this time of year. Luckily the GFS is flip flopping all over the place which offers the hope of something more pleasant returning quicker. UKMO doesnt look too bad either.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM FI at it again, although the cold going to the Atlantic, ECM FI has to be the least reliable anyway, just be like the thing if it's right and the cold misses us to the west

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's one of those setups where if the cold air hits us full-on, chances are the weather will be mostly bright and showery, but if it misses us to the west, we are more likely to end up dull and rainy, with similar daytime maxima but higher night-time minima, due to slow-moving fronts wrapped around depression centres.

[Mapantz]

Winter finally arrives later next week from the north according to the Gfs 00z op rurun

You've said those same words every time a bit of cooler weather has appeared on the charts..

[phil nw.]

For many of us the forecasted colder flow later next week would just mean fresher feeling,bright days but with night frosts,particularly further north and in sheltered districts.

Latest runs show it as a rather dry setup with the main thrust for the north and east before it moves away.A 2 day event probably.

 

I am hoping the signs of a building Azores high thereafter come about and extend into the following week.

[CongletonHeat]

You've said those same words every time a bit of cooler weather has appeared on the charts..

And it has failed to happen every time, they were all certain that Easter was going to be cold.

[MP-R]

Does anyone else think this April has been a sunnier and less exciting version of April 2005? Perhaps a May similar to 2005 is on the cards. I wouldn't mind that during exam season if it means warmth/heat and sunshine in all three summer months.

[cheese]

Dunno if I want to laugh or cry. The UK is actually the coldest place in Europe right now, excluding far northern Scandi.

 

Edited April 25, 2014 by cheese

[IanR]

Dunno if I want to laugh or cry. The UK is actually the coldest place in Europe right now, excluding far northern Scandi.

 

Well it does not surprise me , cant believe the CET has been running above average, I am sure its been at or just below here or it feels like that, Its nearly May now and we haven't seen many days pass 15c yet, just the odd one, most are very low teens and achieving 20c seems like its still a long way off,

Warm,,what warm?   have the heating on today BTW , and dont get me started about the lack of convective type weather , what the hell went wrong with april showers,  that type of weather does not really happen much any more, just grey crud, odd sunny days and occasional moderate rain, 

 

whats a heavy downpours like with sunny intervals , remind me again . OK rant over, well its the moaning thread !!

[Polar Maritime]

I think it's hilarious that some people think that this upcoming cold spell will bring 20cm of snow with it - IT WON'T unless you live on the Scottish Mountains! It will just bring the worst kind of weather, that being rain and wind and temperatures of 6C to 10C.

 

Who are these people ? As i have not seen anyone state that.. And even the Scottish Mountains will struggle to get 20cm 

 

The only comments i have seen is for a cooler/unsettled spell next week, With possible Snow for the Scottish Mountains.

 

I love a bit of cool wind and rain, Although not everyone's cup of tea.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Not specifically anyone on Netweather in fairness, but everyone I've spoken to this week, mainly in college has been saying that. I don't know where they heard it.

 

More than likely the Media as usual 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Where do I start. Textbook Greenland high currently being modelled, above average SST's will be brought back down, plain boring Northerlies/Northeasterlies giving endless dismal murk and chill days, No Greenland high all winter, yet now and sods law telling me for the rest of summer it will be putting a knife into any hope of some heatwaves and plume events...

Its about time I invested in a property on the continent for weather purposes I think.

[knocker]

Am I having a senior moment again? Summer not yet here and next winter being discussed. Quite bizarre.

[Summer Sun]

Where do I start. Textbook Greenland high currently being modelled, above average SST's will be brought back down, plain boring Northerlies/Northeasterlies giving endless dismal murk and chill days, No Greenland high all winter, yet now and sods law telling me for the rest of summer it will be putting a knife into any hope of some heatwaves and plume events...

Its about time I invested in a property on the continent for weather purposes I think.

 

Try not to get too downbeat we have a long way to go yet till summer

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Try not to get too downbeat we have a long way to go yet till summer

I know SS, I hope it's only a brief interlude. But it seems that recently that once a pattern is nailed in, it can take up to months to get rid of it. A fine example of the Canadian PV this winter, that's strictly talking only just gone!

[Summer Sun]

I know SS, I hope it's only a brief interlude. But it seems that recently that once a pattern is nailed in, it can take up to months to get rid of it. A fine example of the Canadian PV this winter, that's strictly talking only just gone!

 

Yeah we'll just have to see how things pan out the first 10 days don't look too good for May bar the odd short lived settled spell it could be around mid months things settled down giving us our first taste of summer like weather

Edited April 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like a rise In pressure from late week

:winky:   

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it's hilarious that some people think that this upcoming cold spell will bring 20cm of snow with it - IT WON'T unless you live on the Scottish Mountains! It will just bring the worst kind of weather, that being rain and wind and temperatures of 6C to 10C.

Actually, looking over the current model outputs, there's a good chance that it will bring neither 20cm of snow or the scenario that you describe.  It could well end up dry and sunny for most parts of the country, though with night frosts which will pose a problem for gardeners.

[Chris K]

Hoping tonights ECM op verifies close to what to shows...settled weather for the bank holiday and if the cloud stays away, pleasantly warm.

Going to a friends birthday on Sunday afternoon, who is planning a BBQ. If its sunny that would be the icing on top of the cake

Edited April 28, 2014 by Chris K

[Summer Sun]

Hoping tonights ECM op verifies close to what to shows...settled weather for the bank holiday and if the cloud stays away, pleasantly warm.Going to a friends birthday on Sunday afternoon, who is planning a BBQ. If its sunny that would be the icing on top of the cake

 

BH weekend still looking decent from the models which is pleasing to see however it does look like a break down to the Atlantic could occur next Tuesday still a long way to go in weather terms so anything could happen. I think the biggest question for the weekend will be how much sun we would have

[phil nw.]

Still hoping that next week the High will remain close enough to minimise any Atlantic influence.

Let's have a decent warm and dry spell starting with the BH weekend.