Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[knocker]

The ECM are not going for a quick breakdown from the ens scenario. One certainly can't see a breakthrough from the SW.

Edited May 30, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Another unsettled run until well into FI..

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes very unsettled indeed, But more settled/warmer weather of sorts is still showing towards mid-month.

 

Edited May 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Yes the GFS have been running with this for a while in noddy land as can be seen with the anomaly on the 18z run. The pushing of the incursion of the eastern warm air and the cold pool in the Atlantic retreating west.

 

 

[bluearmy]

The outsider trend ebbing away from the rise in sceuro heights pushing the trough far enough west although not to be discounted. seems to be an appetite to push the trough ne as heights rise in general to our se. That would mean the scandi anomoly going which has seemed stubbornly semi permanent on 8/14 day ens anomolys. one to keep an eye on as that would be a pattern change if it had legs and wasnt a three day wonder.

EDIT: the ecm mean and anomolys look like they're headed towards the outsider trend though so perhaps we might see that solution after all??

Edited May 31, 2014 by bluearmy

[mushymanrob]

well there is some glimmer of hope, as the azores high looks like 'blinking first' and breaking the stalemate between it and the huge ne high. one of these highs has to give way to break the pattern. IF the azh retreats as the anomaly charts suggest, it will allow retrogression of the mean trough which will allow pressure over the uk to rise... not especially to heatwave proportions but enough to make it less wet.of course after that a more 'summery' evolution can take place.but for now thats only a vague possibility and the first 6th of summer looks pretty dreary with rain never too far away.

[Polar Maritime]

GFS is showing the Steve Murr musings this morning out in the run, With much warmer settled weather from the East this time from the 12th. Still a long way to go... And a lot more unsettled weather to come before we reach a tipping point.

 

Edited May 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

ECM more in line with its mean and recent GEFS in that the early arrival of a possible ridge from the east has been sidelined in the 10 day range.

 

The London temp profiles from ECM ENS & GEFS show a cool period upcoming from around Tuesday till the end of the week:

 

 

Unsettled but not a washout seems the call.

 

The GEFS then suggest a slow recovery in pressure: 

 

ECM this morning keeps the UK in a slack upper trough throughout the run, another variety offered, where a low stays over the UK till D6 and the upper flow is sent to our west digging the trough out into the Atlantic with another cold pool. The latter shifts towards the UK from D8.

 

By D10: 

 

Nothing June like in that chart.

 

NOAA (8-14D) also highlights the shift in the upper trough west, though still influential for most of the UK with the surface low position allowing a possible ridge from the NE. Pretty much in line with current FI output:

 

 

Unlike the ECM OP, that has moved away from stronger heights in the Scandi region, both GEM and GFS continue with this theme:

 

 

 

Though a cluster of GEFS similar to ECM. The ECM mean also closer to the others than its op re those heights to the NE:

 

 

So no cross model support yet as to how the renewed energy from the Atlantic interacts with the current lower heights to our south/SE. Though a cool wetter period very likely for 4-5 days (at least)  from Tuesday.

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather unexpected ECM ens given the operational, but going for a much cleaner solution. Conditions turning a little drier in the East and much warmer next weekend.

 

So certainly the chance of something more interesting developing next weekend still with a little more interest from the models (especially the ECM ens). But this could easily miss us entirely. 

Edited May 31, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

re this

NOAA (8-14D) also highlights the shift in the upper trough west, though still influential for most of the UK with the surface low position allowing a possible ridge from the NE. Pretty much in line with current FI output:

 

I would be wary of using this as a back up for any suggestion the trough is moving west to any degree. Over a 4 day period the NOAA 6-10 has shown the trough within about 5 degrees of the latest predicted position. The more marked change is that over that period it has deepened the trough into a cut off low, much as EC-GFS outputs have done. Yes it is shown as 'edging' very slightly west such that the upper flow is from a southerly point into the UK although it started life fairly well north over the North American continent. Nor do the +ve areas of height and very slight ridging seem to suggest, to me, anything more than a possible improvement towards a more settled idea for the more northern parts of the UK in maybe the 10-14 day time scale.

 

I may be wrong but just now looking at the Met O 15-30 day outlook prior to posting the above and it appears they seem to feel much along similar lines.

[phil nw.]

Yes it would be good to see some kind of pattern change out of this almost Autumn type of weather and there are continuing signs of that in later ens. outputs.

The forecasted upper trough around the UK for next week is again modeled to recede later in week 2 and onwards.

Later naef's ens means showing some warmth and rising pressure easing north from the continent.

 

 

it would start to feel much more Summer like especially further south and east if this came about.

Of course we are looking around12 days + ahead but this trend has been building in recent days and would seem a more likely way to something different rather than the Azores high option.

Looking at naef's again there is still a -ve heght anomaly showing in mid-Atlantic in week 2 which you think would prevent the AH ridging north for now.

With this in mind we could still have a weak Atlantic pattern developing for later into June but with a more traditional nw/se split at times.

No great heatwave yet if this evolution came about but temps.in the low 20'C from that would certainly feel more seasonal.

 

[Timmytour]

Something the models won't be yet reflecting yet in their output is any impact of the Sangeang Api volcano which is currently playing havoc with air travel out of Australia.I'd imagine its influence will reach the Northern hemisphere within ten day timeframe. Maybe the effect wil be minimal at most......but maybe it might prove to be the gamechanger needed

[049balt]

Yes it would be good to see some kind of pattern change out of this almost Autumn type of weather and there are continuing signs of that in later ens. outputs.

The forecasted upper trough around the UK for next week is again modeled to recede later in week 2 and onwards.

Later naef's ens means showing some warmth and rising pressure easing north from the continent.

 

naefsnh-1-0-300.pngnaefsnh-1-1-300.png

 

it would start to feel much more Summer like especially further south and east if this came about.

Of course we are looking around12 days + ahead but this trend has been building in recent days and would seem a more likely way to something different rather than the Azores high option.

Looking at naef's again there is still a -ve heght anomaly showing in mid-Atlantic in week 2 which you think would prevent the AH ridging north for now.

With this in mind we could still have a weak Atlantic pattern developing for later into June but with a more traditional nw/se split at times.

No great heatwave yet if this evolution came about but temps.in the low 20'C from that would certainly feel more seasonal.

Very interesting, most of the long range forecasts are pointing towards High pressure building from the North/East, rather than the usual South west.

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GEM start to get messy at days 8-10 but the Euro ends up accepting defeat from the trough in the end anyway.

 

GFS sticks to its guns..

 

[bluearmy]

Note that the ECM op is too calm days 7 and 8 for se England

[phil nw.]

Time for a new thread i think, ready for the new month and season so will be locking this one shortly peeps.

I will give it a few minutes and then close.

[phil nw.]

Ok this one now locked.

New thread here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80477-model-output-discussion-310514-onwards/

 

to carry on discussions.