Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average UK wide

 

 

The ECM ensemble looks better than the Op again keeping the air milder away from the north

 

[Frosty.]

Let's hope the ecm op run is right, would be nice to see an april cold snap, the first cold snap since..errr..last april apart from the scottish mountains!! :-)

[Summer Sun]

GEM showing a warm start to next week this morning

 

 

But low pressure moves in quickly becoming cooler from the NW

 

 

Pressure starts to rise from the south west

 

 

Pressure continues to build turning warmer in the SW

 

 

We end with the high starting to move away but it remains mild possibly warm in the south

 

 

Best guess is for a 2 to 4 day cooler spell next week before a return to some warmer weather later in the week

Edited April 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Looking at the GFS and UCMWF 850 hPs Temp anomaly Ensembles until Sunday the GFS is a bit more aggressive and gives a slightly higher and more widespread positive anomaly than the ECMWF. Both give warmer temps in the east and south east especially tomorrow in the south east when it could be quite warm.. Heavy showers in the west and a belt of rain on Thursday.

 

The ECMWH Ensemble 500 hPa height anomaly until Sunday. High pressure centred over N. Germany with low pressure to the west and east giving a south westerly flow over the UK.

Edited April 1, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

After a two or 3 day colder snap next week with wintry showers on the hills things are expected to change to something warmer and more settled by day according to the met

 

Later next week conditions are likely to turn drier, less windy and more settled again. Nights then probably still chilly with a risk of ground frost, but feeling warmer again by day.

[Polar Maritime]

Going by the latest METO update they seem to lean towards the ECMWF. So a cold even Wintry week coming up before temps return to average weeks end, but with still a risk of Frost's overnight. Those at high elevations 200m+ could have snow cover from this set-up.

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z 8 day 2m temperature anomaly keeps temperatures above normal

 

 

Normal 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

 

[Frosty.]

Going by the latest METO update they seem to lean towards the ECMWF. So a cold even Wintry week coming up before temps return to average weeks end, but with still a risk of Frost's overnight. Those at high elevations 200m+ could have snow cover from this set-up.

 

Hope so PM..it will be the first time in many months that the Ecm will have verified in that range in terms of cold weather if it happens so it's long overdue.. by about a year.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM the temperatures will be lower than of late next week but should still make it into double figures for some with the highest temperatures in southern England

 

London has a high of 12c each day from next Monday to Thursday

 

Birmingham has a high of 12c next Monday then 10c from Tuesday to Thursday

 

Manchester has a high of 10c next Monday then no lower than 8c Tuesday to Thursday

 

Newcastle has a high of 12c next Monday then 8c Tuesday  and 10c Wednesday & Thursday

 

Up in Scotland temperatures only just make it into double figures for some

 

Edinburgh has a high of 9c next Monday then 7c Tuesday and 9c Wednesday & Thursday

 

Glasgow has a high of 10c next Monday then 7c Tuesday 9c Wednesday & 10c Thursday

 

Aberdeen has a high of 9c next Monday then 8c Tuesday 10c Wednesday & 9c Thursday

 

 

[knocker]

Well regarding next week the main feature according to the ECMWF at the moment seems to be the wind. Could be quite windy early and mid-week with strong SW veering NW winds as the UK is sandwiched between high pressure to the south and low to the NW - N.

 

According to the ENS Ensemble mean 850 hPa temp is near average and the 500 hPa height as the weak positive heights centred over southern France with the UK staying under the influence of it.

 

So I would say pretty unsettled but temps holding up pretty well especially in the east and midlands perhaps 17-18 but Gods country down around 11-13 mark.

Edited April 1, 2014 by knocker

[049balt]

It doesn't look that bad, pressure is trying to build and give us all some fine weather but we are just not there yet.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like a brief spell of more unsettled weather at the beginning of next week, but into week 2 there are signs of heights building back in from the west in one or another. The GFS looks the mildest with a predominantly westerly flow whilst the ECM tries to build heights north of the UK. The GEM is between the two but ends similar to the GFS with heights building over the UK.

GEM

ECM from this morning but similar to yesterdays as well

 

I get the feeling that we will see cooler weather from the middle of next week (maybe a brief northerly before conditions become more settled again). The ECM has overdone the amplification again I think.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GFS brings high pressure in by mid next week after an unsettled start

 

 

UKMO shows an unsettled start to next week

 

 

GEM also shows pressure rising around mid next week

 

 

So will ECM start and back track to the others or will it continue with its lows and cooler weather we'll find out in a few hours

 

No change from the 8 day GFS temperature anomaly with it remaining above average UK wide

 

 

Normal 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[gottolovethisweather]

It doesn't look that bad, pressure is trying to build and give us all some fine weather but we are just not there yet.

 

Whilst I should also be providing a bit more of an in-depth discussion, I agree with you and come Thursday/Friday, in my opinion, the various outputs should have next week's weather nailed. I am sticking to the 7th and 8th April being a briefly chillier interlude with the second week of April becoming increasingly a general settling down scenario and warming up for everyone, come Mid April, courtesy of a build of HP. I still see a special April by way of occasional Thundery outbreaks and early heat for much of the South, hopefully extending North in time.

Edited April 1, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[049balt]

Whilst I should also be providing a bit more of an in-depth discussion, I agree with you and come Thursday/Friday, in my opinion, the various outputs should have next week's weather nailed. I am sticking to the 7th and 8th April being a briefly chillier interlude with the second week of April becoming increasingly a general settling down scenario and warming up for everyone, come Mid April, courtesy of a build of HP. I still see a special April by way of occasional Thundery outbreaks and early heat for much of the South, hopefully extending North in time.

    

[gottolovethisweather]

    

 

Doesn't make me right though, unfortunately, anything truly could happen.  Anyway, back to model output discussion and no more one-liners from me.

Edited April 1, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM moving to a less unsettled outlook

 

More in line with the other models now.

All models wanting to bring high pressure back in at the start of week 2

 

Worth noting the GFS ens also back this idea up

Edited April 1, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

ECM backtracking tonight with high pressure starting to move in as early as next Tuesday no surprise really more in line with what the other models were showing

 

 

still a chilly flow to start with as the high moves up

 

High pressure righ over us mid next week

 

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

ECM backtracking tonight with high pressure starting to move in as early as next Tuesday no surprise really more in line with what the other models were showing

 

 

still a chilly flow to start with as the high moves up

Really??? Ive scanned the charts tonight and the gfs and ecm look changeable to say the least, yes some high pressure incursions ,picticularly from the gfs ,but I don't think the ecm has backtracked in any way.....  

[Summer Sun]

Really??? Ive scanned the charts tonight and the gfs and ecm look changeable to say the least, yes some high pressure incursions ,picticularly from the gfs ,but I don't think the ecm has backtracked in any way.....  

 

Not backtracked?

 

00z

 

 

12z

 

 

Bit of a change between the 2 runs

 

High pressure remains with us at t216 becoming warmer in the SW

 

Edited April 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Really??? Ive scanned the charts tonight and the gfs and ecm look changeable to say the least, yes some high pressure incursions ,picticularly from the gfs ,but I don't think the ecm has backtracked in any way.....  

Classic ECM over-amplification in the Atlantic situation. Produces a flatter pattern upstream and the high latitude block at day 9/10 is replaced by a mid-latitude one from the start of week 2 on-wards. The other models and ensembles were always going for something drier and less cold than the ECM op (especially in the south) and it looks like they might be right.

ECM is pretty much dry throughout in the south with most rainfall apart from the next couple of days being light and patchy at worst.

[ANYWEATHER]

Classic ECM over-amplification in the Atlantic situation. Produces a flatter pattern upstream and the high latitude block at day 9/10 is replaced by a mid-latitude one from the start of week 2 on-wards. The other models and ensembles were always going for something drier and less cold than the ECM op (especially in the south) and it looks like they might be right.

ECM is pretty much dry throughout in the south with most rainfall apart from the next couple of days being light and patchy at worst.

Yes I forgot that blasted time change and posted the ecm from 7pm rather than 8!!! Sorry Gavin.! But I see a mobile pattern next week, rather chilly in the wind and some unwelcome rain! Frosts likely on the ecm too... Even at

T+216/day 9 the gfs shows an absence of high pressure , but of course an unreliable timeframe..

Edited April 1, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

Yes I forgot that blasted time change and posted the ecm from 7pm rather than 8!!! Sorry Gavin.! But I see a mobile pattern next week, rather chilly in the wind and some unwelcome rain! Frosts likely on the ecm too...

Even at T=216/day 9 the gfs shows an absence of high pressure , but of course an unreliable timeframe..

 

No worries

 

ECM ends with high pressure still over most of England and Wales it remains warm as well

 

 

The question is where the low in the Atlantic would end up beyond this

[damianslaw]

April is always our most tricky month to forecast. Its the one month when major turnarounds can occur within short timescales. With this in mind- keep an open mind.

 

It is also often the driest month in many places.

 

If we look at the current synoptics, it took a long time for the models to grapple with the placement of heights to our NE, none of them settled on the southeasterly until the 72 hour timeframe.

 

A southerly can quickly become a northerly and vice versa at this time of year.

 

Looking at the models the only sign I can see - is marked differences in conditions over short spaces in the days ahead, some places will see decent warmth and sunshine, others chilly cloudy weather and others wet overcast conditions.

[Frosty.]

WOW 22 c 72 f in the south east today..at least 21 c again tomorrow but closer to 18 c by thursday as it starts to go pete tong..BUT.. for now, for some of us it's more like early summer than early spring..and dust from the sahara desert

 

Enjoy the warmth if you have it because a general breakdown to atlantic wind and rain is on the way from friday onwards.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Frosty.