Convective / Storm Discussion - 30th March 2014 onwards

[Mapantz]

A bit of a cock up from BBC forecasts yesterday. It does look like something a bit heavier is creeping in to the far south west but the models want to keep everything as far West as possible.

I know it's not all about a precipitation chart, but this is the best that the NMM 6 can muster up..

Edited March 31, 2014 by Mapantz

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice yellow warning for rain for showers and thunderstorms this evening!

EDIT: NW England and NW Midlands.

Edited March 31, 2014 by Darren Bown

[Mapantz]

Metoffice yellow warning for rain for showers and thunderstorms this evening!EDIT: NW England and NW Midlands.

If you move the green and yellow blobs from the NMM I posted, and put them 100 miles further east, it'd be bang on. :lol:The NMM can be a strange model at times...Here's meteogroup's precipitation forecast..The satellite picture makes for interesting viewing too! Hope some of you get lucky this evening! Maybe CC will get a second decent storm within a week. Edited March 31, 2014 by Mapantz

[Jane Louise]

An advisory from Metcheck:

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/warnings.asp

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yes, I think that with pockets of MLCAPE values of up to 400 kj (Mixed Layer Convective Potential Energy as calculated using a parcel consisting of Mean Layer values of temperature and moisture from the lowest 100 mb above ground level) INVOF (in the vicinity of) cold front heading NE from SW England through W Midlands, NW England and to NE parts there is justifiable confidence for a scattering of elevated thundery downpours to occur this afternoon and evening in aforementioned areas. I am sure many of you will be primed for the action, with cameras and cars poised to chase cells that show particular conventional potential.

 

Regards

Tom

Edited March 31, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warnings issued for heavy showers and Isolated thunderstorms

 

Issued at: 1141 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

Valid from: 1600 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

Valid to: 0400 on Tue 1 Apr 2014

 

Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warning area late on Monday afternoon whilst a band of heavy rain follows northwards across the whole area during Monday evening, clearing to the north during the early hours of Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of surface water flooding leading to localised disruption to travel.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Temperatures will be high enough to allow scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop across some central and northwestern parts of England and northeast Wales later on Monday afternoon. There is a low risk of 10-15 mm of rain falling within an hour. However, most areas are likely to miss the worst of this. Meanwhile, an active frontal system will follow northwards, bringing a band of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms on Monday evening, clearing from the south into the early hours of Tuesday. Some parts of the warning area could receive 15-20 mm of rain within 4 hours.

 

Areas under the warning

 

Flintshire, Wrexham, Denbighshire

 

Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Greater Manchester, Halton, Lancashire, Merseyside, Warrington

 

Shropshire, Staffordshire, Stoke-on-Trent, Telford and Wrekin

 

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

 

A separate warning is in place for northern Ireland for some Scattered heavy showers

 

Issued at: 1201 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

Valid from: 1600 on Mon 31 Mar 2014

Valid to: 0400 on Tue 1 Apr 2014

 

Scattered heavy showers may develop over parts of Northern Ireland later this afternoon before a band of heavy rain follows slowly northwards during Monday evening, clearing to the north during the early hours of Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of some localised disruption to travel due to surface water flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active frontal system will move northwards across Northern Ireland, bringing a band of heavy rain and possible thunderstorms on Monday evening, clearing from the south into the early hours of Tuesday. Some areas could receive 15-20 mm of rain within 3 to 6 hours.

 

Areas under the warning

 

County Fermanagh, County Tyrone, County Armagh, County Down, County Londonderry, County Antrim

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1396220400&regionName=ni

[dave48]

There is a cluster of cells forming in Lyme Bay at the moment already showing some strong precip values.

[poseidon]

I think that the saharan sand dumped on my car last night could be about as exciting as it gets in the next week on this side of the UK.

[ardsar]

Rain is approaching the SW, not too heavy, but there are some brighter echoes developing. No sferic activity yet.

[TheToastPeople]

The sky has been rather dull and featureless all day, some convective stuff just started bubbling up in the past half hour though. Id bet some are in for a storm this evening from the look of this sky! Good luck fellow storm addicts!

[Costa Del Fal]

Cells just firing near Bideford in Devon?

[Dancerwithwings]

The only sferic activity atm is in the Bay of Biscay http://www.bearsbythesea.co.uk/stormvue.php

 

I know it's updated every 10 seconds but that activity over Ireland came up quick

Edited March 31, 2014 by Dancerwithwings

[Mapantz]

Cells just firing near Bideford in Devon?

Certainly looks like it. :)14:25 radar grab..A few sferics appearing on the 14:30 update. Edited March 31, 2014 by Mapantz

[A.J]

yes, looks like some elevated stuff firing up off the north devon coast heading for western parts of Wales, with more showers breaking out ahead of the trough over east devon/somerset as well as the west welsh coast

[Spikecollie]

Something's happening in the general W/SW direction - the different detector networks seem to place the strikes a bit differently geographically.

[Costa Del Fal]

Sferics now off West Devon

[Dancerwithwings]

Sferics now off West Devon

Cluster of them just of the North Wales coast looks to be kick off and showing on http://www.bearsbythesea.co.uk/stormvue.php http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile

[Costa Del Fal]

Cluster of them just of the North Wales coast looks to be kick off and showing on http://www.bearsbythesea.co.uk/stormvue.php http://www.raintoday.co.uk/mobile

I have a feeling those of the coast of Wales/Ireland are meant to be from the Lundy/North Devon Coast storms? Blitzortung says so at least.

[A.J]

have a look at those cells developing just off the french coast heading towards the Channel Islands...If they hold together they could display some fireworks for the south coast in a few hours!

 

.

Edited March 31, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[Paul]

Lightning in the Bristol channel - slowly moving inland. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[ChezWeather]

Cells developing near the channel islands look interesting, i think it may all be too far west for me to see anything later on. 

 

Good luck everyone! 

[ardsar]

I have a feeling those of the coast of Wales/Ireland are meant to be from the Lundy/North Devon Coast storms? Blitzortung says so at least.

Correct. This is one drawback of using a system that tries to determine strike distance from signal strength. Distance usually becomes accurate over time, but with this type of activity can be quite difficult as the cells tend to be short lived. Similar effect can be seen from other detectors such as http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/StormVueNG.htm

[Marcus_surfer]

Just a few spots of rain here are we in for anything heavier?

[Dancerwithwings]

I have a feeling those of the coast of Wales/Ireland are meant to be from the Lundy/North Devon Coast storms? Blitzortung says so at least.

Thanks for the direction.... Looking at http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess= & http://www.ramseyweather.co.uk/wxlightninguk.php You can clearly see that

[Panayiotis]

All kicking off now on the radar especially over SW Wales and SW England! Look at the developments of these two cells in 15mins!