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Severe Tropical Cyclone Gillian


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Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

Looks like the rather erratic Gillian story is coming to an end.

 

IDD20021TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGIONIssued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTREat: 1931 UTC 17/03/2014Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone GillianIdentifier: 14UData At: 1800 UTCLatitude: 9.9SLongitude: 132.8ELocation Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]Movement Towards: west [277 deg]Speed of Movement:  12 knots [23 km/h]Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]Central Pressure: 1004 hPaRadius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:  Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:  Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:  Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:  Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:  Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:  Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:  Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:  Radius of 64-knot winds:  Radius of Maximum Winds:  Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRSPressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPaRadius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]FORECAST DATADate/Time   : Location   : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[uTC]   : degrees :   nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa+06:  18/0000:  9.7S 131.0E: 055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1004+12:  18/0600:  9.5S 129.5E: 070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1004+18:  18/1200:  9.3S 127.9E: 080 [150]:  030  [055]: 1004+24:  18/1800:  8.9S 125.9E: 095 [175]:  030  [055]: 1005+36:  19/0600:  8.4S 122.1E: 115 [210]:  025  [045]: 1006+48:  19/1800:  8.2S 118.7E: 135 [245]:  025  [045]: 1007+60:  20/0600:  8.5S 115.6E: 150 [280]:  025  [045]: 1007+72:  20/1800:  8.9S 113.0E: 170 [320]:  030  [055]: 1004+96:  21/1800: 10.3S 108.8E: 215 [400]:  030  [055]: 1003+120: 22/1800: 12.1S 106.3E: 300 [560]:  030  [055]: 1003REMARKS:Position based on persistence, IR imagery and synoptic observations with moderate confidence.Convection has moved further away from the low level centre, and the FT is based on sheared pattern, with a weakening to FT of 1.5 derived, though CI was held at 2.0 using constraints.Steering remains a solid west northwest under influence of a low level ridge to the south of the system. The 12Z global model runs show remarkable correspondence in position and timing for the movement of the system across Indonesia, though the projected tracks diverge in the long term in the Indian Ocean.GFS and JMA continue to maintain stronger forecast and even analysis intensities than the other models, however they have consistently been too strong over the past few days and so are being treated as less likely scenarios. Most other guidance suggests little strengthening prior to the system transiting into the Indonesian archipelago due to the system not being vertically stacked [the middle level centre displace to the west northwest of the low level centre]. Dry low to mid level air is also being drawn into the system from the south, further reducing the chances of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days.  Nevertheless squally heavy rain is still possible around the low as it passes across the Timor Sea and Indonesia.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia==The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC. 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Mmm, not just yet by the looks of things. Convection is increasing quite readily near the LLCC of Ex-Gillian this evening, though it is not all that well organised it has to be said. BOM now forecast Gillian to briefly become a 35kt tropical cyclone again (if it does make it, it will be the third time Gillian has become a tropical cyclone) within the next 12hrs before it interacts with Timor. Further land interaction with the islands of Flores and Sumbawa will almost certainly cause Ex-Gillian to lose strength and become a remnant low once more.

 

Although the map doesn't show Ex-Gillian becoming a tropical cyclone again, it is forecast to happen between the 0 and 12hr forecast point, and this is probably based on the current upward convective trend:

 

Posted Image

 

Interesting to note, that in one form or another, Gillian or it's remnants are still expected to be roaming around in 5 days time, and it may find a more favourable environment once it moves into the open waters of the South Indian Ocean. From BOM:

 

 

In the longer term, the low may receive a moist low level infeed from the NW. As
it moves in a more southerly direction over the Indian Ocean, shear is forecast
to decrease and poleward outflow increase as it becomes better located with the
upper level ridge. As such, Ex-TC Gillian may have the potential to slowly
develop once again.

 

Quite remarkable considering Gillian formed on the 6th March back in the Gulf Of Carpentaria in the South Pacific!

 

Track history so far:

 

Posted Image

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Mmm, not just yet by the looks of things. Convection is increasing quite readily near the LLCC of Ex-Gillian this evening, though it is not all that well organised it has to be said. BOM now forecast Gillian to briefly become a 35kt tropical cyclone again (if it does make it, it will be the third time Gillian has become a tropical cyclone) within the next 12hrs before it interacts with Timor. Further land interaction with the islands of Flores and Sumbawa will almost certainly cause Ex-Gillian to lose strength and become a remnant low once more.

 

It looks like you have some predictive talents! Posted Image Gillian has once again been upgraded to a tropical cyclone (for the third time by now!) by TCWC Jakarta. Because Gillian has moved north of 10N, the responsibility currently lies within TCWC Jakarta.

 

From Bureau of Meteorology:

 

 

 

There will be no further bulletins for this system as it is moving in Jakarta

TCWC area of responsibility

 

The reincarnation appears to be short-lived, though, as TCWC Jakarta forecasts the system to weaken immediately back to a tropical low once again:

 

Posted Image

Forecast track of Gillian.

 

The weakening can be explained by the forecasted land interaction as you noted.

 

Even though Gillian has become a tropical cyclone again, the organization is still rather poor, with flaring convection persisting around the LLCC.Furthermore, on the satellite loops, little to no cyclonic turning appears to be evident. The land interaction may already be taking a toll on the system.

 

Below is a satellite loop of Gillian:

 

Posted Image

 

The far future appears to be more promising. The GFS has been hinting at some significant intensification after the system moves southward away from Indonesia. However, the GFS has had a high bias of Gillian, consistently overplaying the forecasted intensity. 

 

Even at T180, Gillian is still visible:

 

Posted Image

GFS MSLP T180

 

Gillian can be seen to the west of Australia.

 

Whatever happens with Gillian in the short and long term, it has been a very interesting and tenacious cyclone! And it will most likely remain that way for quite some time, given the forecasts.

 

Of a side note, it rarely occurs that tropical cyclones move so close to the equator in this region. The most recent example of a significant tropical cyclone in that area was cyclone Kirrily (in the 2008-2009 Australian cyclone season). The track of Kirrily can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Sources:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnet.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20021.txt

http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/siklon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/17P_floater.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_region_cyclone_season

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

I remember Kirrily, was a very late system, somewhere around end of April or early May. Got to within about 5 degrees of the equator.

 

True, Gillian does have a future, there's a big distance between it and the high lats. After Indonesia Christmas Island is likely to be affected.

 

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western RegionIDW10800Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region Issued at 1:23 pm WST on Wednesday 19 March 2014 for the period until midnight WST Saturday 22 March 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones: 

Ex-TC Gillian is tracking in the mountainous terrain of the Indonesian archipelago this afternoon. Current conditions are unfavourable for development in the near-term. On Friday, the system may track southwest from Java with more favourable conditions for development on Saturday as it possibly nears Christmas Island.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Region on:Thursday   Very Low Friday   Low  Saturday   Moderate

There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

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Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

IDW24400Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1Issued at 10:44 am WST on Thursday 20 March 2014

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian for Christmas Island.

At 7:00 am CXT Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian, was estimated to be 1270 kilometres east northeast of Christmas Island and moving west at 34 kilometres per hour.

Ex-TC Gillian is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday as it moves close to Christmas Island. Gales are not expected on the island during Thursday or Friday but may develop as early as Saturday afternoon. The period of greatest risk will commence overnight on Saturday into Sunday as the system moves past Christmas Island.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian at 7:00 am CXT:.Centre located near...... 8.0 degrees South 117.0 degrees East.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 34 kilometres per hour.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity.Central pressure......... 1006 hectoPascals

 The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CXT Thursday 20 March.

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Posted
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT
  • Location: Noonamah, Top End NT

A friend was in Bali when ex-Gillian passed over there, said they just got good rain out of it.

 

Now it's bearing down on Christmas Island. Expected to strengthen to TC in the early hours of tomorrow (Saturday), pass just to the north of the island during the day, strengthen to cat. 2 by evening. Wind gusts in excess of 125 kph are expected on the island Saturday and Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Ex-Gillian is looking rather impressive this morning, probably the most impressive since it's birth over two weeks ago. Convection is building nicely directly over the LLCC, and banding features are good. JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert yet again, and I expect JTWC and BOM will upgrade Ex-Gillian to tropical cyclone status once more very soon. Ex-Gillian is now moving away from Indonesia in a southwesterly direction and will pass over or very near to Christmas Island over the next day or so, bringing heavy rains and high winds here. Unlike Ex-Gillian's time in the Gulf Of Carpentaria and through Indonesia, the environment actually looks pretty good for intensification, with low shear, good outflow, and warm sea temperatures expected to persist for at least the next few days. Barring any surprises, this means that Gillian should become a lot stronger than it did in it's previous three lifetimes!

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Current status

 

Ex-Gillian is looking rather impressive this morning, probably the most impressive since it's birth over two weeks ago. Convection is building nicely directly over the LLCC, and banding features are good. 

 

Indeed, there is finally some well-defined curvature present associated with Gillian. This has been lacking since the time Gillian first developed. The cyclone is now really looking like a well-developed system. However, central convection has weakened some, resulting in the most intense convection displaced in a band to the south of Gillian. I do agree, though, that Gillian is currently having the healthiest appearance since its birth.

 

A satellite loop of Gillian can be found in the link below:

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/imagery/vis-animated.gif

 

Furthermore, given the current satellite presentation of Gillian, it seems that the strong shear has finally relaxed some, giving Gillian the possibility to reorganize. CIMSS shear analysis supports this statement, with shear values of only 5-10 kt present near Gillian.

 

Posted Image

CIMSS wind shear analysis and trends. The colours indicate the current shear, while the contour lines indicate the tendency over the past 24 hours.

 

The current position of Gillian is near 10S, 108E, to the south of Java.

 

More importantly, Gillian has once again been upgraded to a tropical cyclone by the JTWC. Once again, your forecast was correct, Somerset Squall Posted Image. The Bureau of Meteorology has yet to follow suit, though.

 

Forecasts

 

One major difference with previous forecasts is that the JTWC is forecasting Gillian to become a Category 2-equivalent (SSHS scale)! It would be a very nice climax, given that Gillian has never made it past 35 knots during its lifetime. The forecast from the JTWC can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

 

 

Track and intensity forecast for Gillian issued by the JTWC.

 

The track forecast of Gillian is that the system will curve to the south-southwest in a few days before bending back toward west due to a low-level ridge building to the south of the cyclone1.

 

Furthermore, the intensity forecast shows Gillian intensifying into a 90 kt system (as stated above) before weakening due to cooler waters and some mid-level dry air1.

 

The Bureau of Meteorology is much less aggressive regarding Gillian, as the agency only expects Gillian to become a category 2 cyclone (BOM-scale, which is equivalent to winds between 48 and 63 kt). The track forecast from Bureau of Meteorology can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

Track forecast for Gillian from the Bureau of Metorology.

 

What can also be seen is that the BOM forecasts less of a southward motion, indicating a southwestward track to last throughout the period. This might be related to the difference in intensity forecasts.

 

 

An interesting detail is that the GFS wants to keep Gillian alive for another 174 hours (7.25 days). It forecasts Gillian to move slowly westward while slowly weakening the later stages of the forecast period (beyond T120).

 

Posted Image

GFS MSLP T174

 

Gillian can be seen as the sub-1005 hPa low to the west of Australia. It would be amazing if Gillian would be able to hang on for such a long period of time! Caution is required, though, as this forecast is more than 7 days out and because of the upward bias the GFS has had during the life of Gillian.

 

Finally, a nice blog about tenacious TC Gillian can be found below:

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/gillian-southwestern-pacific-ocean/#.UywfTPl5PxR

 

EDIT: Note that the track forecast maps update automatically, and therefore, the text next to these images may not be fully up to date.

 

Sources:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnet.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

1http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/17P_floater.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Yep, quite an agressive forecast from JTWC. BOM have re-upgraded Gillian now too, forecasting a peak of 70kts (10-min average). The westward track at the end of the JTWC forecast is interesting, if Gillian hung on without slipping too far south it would make this very interesting system even more so!

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Gillian has been rewarded for battling such a hostile environment for so long, winds are now up to 55kts according to the latest JTWC advisory (though I expect it's now stronger than this), with strong banding wrapping into a central dense overcast feature, from which an eye is emerging. With this structure evident, coupled with low shear and good outflow, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100kt+ peak with Gillian (1 min average) before weakening occurs.

EDIT: BOM have just upgraded Gillian to a "Severe Tropical Cyclone", with winds of 65kts (10 min average).

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Gillian has been rewarded for battling such a hostile environment for so long, winds are now up to 55kts according to the latest JTWC advisory (though I expect it's now stronger than this), with strong banding wrapping into a central dense overcast feature, from which an eye is emerging. With this structure evident, coupled with low shear and good outflow, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 100kt+ peak with Gillian (1 min average) before weakening occurs.

 

This does indeed seems to becoming more likely. In fact, Gillian seems to be undergoing rapid intensification by now! Last few satellite images show that a circular cloud-filled eye has become apparent, with a somewhat ragged eyewall surrounding the feature. This structure can be seen in the Dvorak satellite image below:

 

Posted Image

Dvorak-enhanced satellite image of Gillian. (Courtesy: NOAA)

 

Furthermore, a thin, but well defined band is located on the western semicircle of Gillian.

 

CIMSS satellite intensity estimates are 59, 65 and 64 kt from ADT, AMSU and SATCON, respectively. These estimates seem to be highly unlikely to me, given the eye feature and the well-defined eyewall. Though the AMSU and SATCON intensity estimates are from 7 hours ago (09Z), the ADT estimate is very recent (15:30Z). Perhaps the small size is causing the underestimation of the intensity (assuming that the intensity is much higher than indicated, which may be correct or not). 

 

To make a better assessment of the structure of Gillian, a MIMIC TC loop from Gillian is shown below:

 

Posted Image

MIMIC TC 24 hr loop of Gillian.

 

What can be seen is that the structure of Gillian consists of a long band-like structure, but the eyewall is not exactly circular. This indicates that Gillian could still improve its organization in the near- or far-future.

 

Of a side note: Gillian became a severe tropical in its fourth (!) lifetime. Pretty amazing it is! Posted Image

 

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/17P_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Gillian's intensity has continued to rocket up, with winds now at 110kts according to JTWC, cat 3 on the SS scale. Gillian has a large eye surrounded by a deep central dense overcast. Gillian is nearing it's peak, but a little more strengthening is possible over the next 12hrs. Thereafter, as Tropicbreeze has stated, shear will increase quite dramatically over Gillian, causing some fairly rapid weakening. So we don't have long to enjoy this system's beauty:

 

post-1820-0-83167900-1395571874_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

One thing to note aswell is Gillian started off so tiny in the Gulf Of Carpentaria a couple weeks ago, now it's huge! It's really done well in the moist environment and warm waters south of Java.

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

GIllan has continued to rapidly intensify, and it has become a category 5 tropical cyclone (Bureau of Meteorology-scale). This is equivalent with 1-minute sustained winds of above 123 kt, making Gillian also a category four cyclone on the SSHS-scale. Moreover, this is the first category 5 tropical cyclone in the Australian basin since Yasi in the 2010-2011 Australian hurricane season. (Bruce also became a category 5 tropical cyclone, but this occured outside the Australian area of responsibility).

CIMSS ADT satellite intensity estimates yields 124.8 kt, confirming the category 5-designation of the Bureau of Meteorology. The satellite intensity history of Gillian (only 4th lifetime), indicating the rapid intensification, can be seen below:

 

Posted Image

ADT Satellite intensity estimate history of Gillian.

 

 

One thing to note aswell is Gillian started off so tiny in the Gulf Of Carpentaria a couple weeks ago, now it's huge! It's really done well in the moist environment and warm waters south of Java.

 

Indeed, I remember the time when Gillian only consisted of a very tight and small exposed LLCC. However, it has become a real monster right now! The tropical storm wind field of Gillian is currently 112 km (as of CIMSS), which is far above the average of 47 km (as of Wikipedia). 

 

Currently, Gillian is a beautiful cyclone, with a small eye surrounded by a nearly circular eyewall. Below is a Rainbow image of Gillian:

 

Posted Image

 

Let's enjoy this beauty for as long as it lasts!

 

Sources:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/17P_floater.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Australian_region_cyclone_season#Other_storms

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

Wow, just wow!

 

Posted Imagegillian 2.jpg

 

The image just says it all: what an incredible system it is! 

 

And it is getting more exciting within every moment... Latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates suggest that Gillian has intensified into a Category 5 tropical cyclone in its fourth lifetime. A final T-number as from NOAA has resulted in 7.0, which is equivalent to 140 kt sustained winds (1 minute mean). From a NOAA-bulletin:

 

 

 

REMARKS...OVERALL OUTFLOW LOOKS TO BE GETTING IMPINGED A BIT ON NW

SIDE BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS UNAFFECTED...IN FACT CONTINUING TO

COOL/INTENSIFY...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED NWLY SHEAR ADDING OUTFLOW.

AS SUCH -38C DG EYE IS EMBEDDED .54 DEGREES IN CMG FOR EYE NO. OF

6.5. POSITIVE .5 EYE ADJ FOR CMG RING AROUND DG EYE YIELDS DT OF 7.0. MET

IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. FT IS 7.0 BASED ON DT.

 

The complete history of the intensity of Gillian can be found in the image below:

 

Posted Image

Satellite intensity history of Gillian, showing the weak variations during the firest 14 days and the rapid intensification thereafter.

 

It will be interesting to see whether the JTWC will follow suit and upgrade Gillian to a category 5 tropical cyclone (SSHS-scale).

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH172014

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/GILLIAN.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

And they have! Winds are now a whopping 140kts according to JTWC, making Gillian the first cat 5 of 2014 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I never imagined this would've been the outcome, watching Gillian's remnants struggling for so long through the Indonesia portion of the track, and when it looked doomed to stay in the hostile Gulf Of Carpentaria!

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Strong shear has pummelled Gillian all day today and has severely weakened the cyclone. Winds are down to 90kts, cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye feature has disappeared, and the convection is elongating in a southeastward direction. Shear is currently at about 30kts, which will further weaken Gillian as it moves southwards. There is some uncertainty on the future track, with models split between an eventual westward or eastward heading after 36hrs. If a westward track eventuates, shear may step up to the 40-50kt range as the cyclone's direction moves out of phase with the upper level winds. Either way, at this stage, sea temperatures will also be lower, leading to dissipation of Gillian in a few days, and probably for the final time.

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands

It was just up to one and a half day ago that Gillian was rapidly strengthening into a category 5 cyclone. Currently, Gillian is weakening just as quickly! Winds have come down to 60 kt, according to JTWC. In fact, Latest satellite images show the LLCC of Gillian is becoming exposed to the northwest of the remaining convection.

 

Posted Image

Current satellite image of Gillian.

 

Given that Gillian is currently in an environment of around 30 kt of shear, and that the shear will only get stronger when Gillian moves to the south, it appears that the life of the cyclone is coming to a quick end1. Moreover, Gillian is nearing sub-26*C sea surface temperatures, which will aid in the dissipation of the tropical cyclone.2.

EDIT: the JTWC has issued their last advisory for Gillian. This marks the end of a highly interesting and tenacious cyclone.

 

Sources:

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austwest/winds/wgmssht.GIF ( 1)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14032506/4.track.png(2)

Edited by Vorticity0123
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