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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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Anyone taken into account that now North america is pretty much buired under snow now.. and the direction of how these storms are firing up.. The cold air flooding over the snow fields add even a bigger temperature contrast.. 

 

Nah there's a cat1 may be 2 by now going to Australia.

 

its a little baby storm compared  to the one in the Atlantic in size...

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Anyone taken into account that now North america is pretty much buired under snow now.. and the direction of how these storms are firing up.. The cold air flooding over the snow fields add even a bigger temperature contrast.. 

 

 

its a little baby storm compared  to the one in the Atlantic in size...

http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/

I see what you mean, as soon as it clashes with the warm 'Gulf' and mid atlantic air, kabooooom!

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

This thread brings peace to my heart! Over on the MOD slow watch thread i've taken a heck of a slippering of late for forewarning storms. When will they listen :)

I have to thank you folks on here, this is far far more informative than the forum which is supposed to be the model watching/commenting one, but simply turns into a 'when will it snow' thread. Thanks all, very very useful information!!

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Not been much to talk about down this way today!

 

Highest gust only 25mph and 24hour rain total of 7mm, typical breezy weather for this area. Forecast was for 40-50mph gusts even for us and that certainly hasn't happend.

 

I wonder now whether or not that means that all of these lows showing on the models will be dramatically toned down including tomorrows?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Calming down a bit as the front clears away but it's been a very wet & windy day here with a top gust of 64mph with mean speeds into the 40's, looking even stronger tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Not been much to talk about down this way today! Highest gust only 25mph and 24hour rain total of 7mm, typical breezy weather for this area. Forecast was for 40-50mph gusts even for us and that certainly hasn't happend. I wonder now whether or not that means that all of these lows showing on the models will be dramatically toned down including tomorrows?

Similar here. About 5mm rain and just breezy, not especially windy. Was expecting a deluge today, so pleasantly surprised:-)
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Does anyone know where I can find precipitation accumulation recordings?

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

I wonder which one will be the strongest LOW for wind, This one or Wednesdays?

Such luxury we have compared with just 15 years or so ago. Model output it is like having crystal ball slightly, not that I have ever had one of those LOL

Wind is a good one, in that there are always some areas that get it far worse than ones interpretation of said Model output suggests. Some of course get much less.

This is where instinct and experience plays a great role increasing interest in Storms. I have always trusted my thoughts alongside what I read and see. I think it is important to test ones thoughts with what actually happens.....

For me nothing beats the drama and plain old anorak level interest of a good long historical weather period like this one we are slap bang in the middle of now. Always been fascinated in big events like this as far as I can think back..

 

Oh and it is not snowing in Iceland at the moment b/wPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well Saturdays is in the reliable time frame so for now I'm going with Saturdays.

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Well Saturdays is in the reliable time frame so for now I'm going with Saturdays.

I see you logic there, I am going for Wednesdays , gut feeling, at least where I live.

Countrywide maybe Saturdays, 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Some worrying rainfall accumulation from 12 GFS over the next 7 days, particularly those areas already badly affected by flooding:

 

post-1052-0-78795300-1391194328_thumb.gi

 

Certainly need to keep an eye on a few potential deep Atlantic lows next week, one headed NE to NW Britain by Wednesday, another on a more southerly track across England and Wales later in the week.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Some worrying rainfall accumulation from 12 GFS over the next 7 days, particularly those areas already badly affected by flooding:

 

Posted ImageGFS_ACCUM_168.gif

 

Certainly need to keep an eye on a few potential deep Atlantic lows next week, one headed NE to NW Britain by Wednesday, another on a more southerly track across England and Wales later in the week.

Luckily they are not very accurate otherwise eeek. Hopefully they'll remain inaccurate or it will be eeek again.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

For size of area proportionally affected probably more likely Saturdays..next week? smaller but quickly developing 'bomb' type lows can be nastier in terms of wind strength, albeit through a narrower track. Plenty to watch for sure!

Things can change very rapidly from day to day. We had come and go in December on consecutive runs and only could sure when it got within 24 hours. Even then some just turned into twig rustlers rather than tree twisters.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6#

 

worrying amounts  of  rain

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204#

 

even  more  worrying   if this  comes  off   the uk will be in deep  trouble with  flooding

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Saturday's storm is still out in the Atlantic but this evening it will move closer and closer to Ireland and the UK,

 

post-6686-0-88915300-1391195087_thumb.pn

 

Mean speeds between 60 to 70mph in the Atlantic during this evening,

 

post-6686-0-74181400-1391195190_thumb.pn

 

Today we saw widespread reports of 60 to 72mph gusts across the country, these winds will ease for the rest of the day and overnight as well.

 

6am Saturday - Ireland notices the wind speeds increasing with gusts up to around 50 to 60mph also parts of Northern England could see 50mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-50527500-1391195392_thumb.pn

 

11am Saturday - Southern Ireland wind speeds continue to increase with gusts now reaching 60 to 70mph. The rest of Ireland and Wales, Northern England get 50 to 60mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-88601600-1391195518_thumb.pn

 

4pm Saturday - 60 to 70mph gusts are possible over Ireland and Wales. Meanwhile other places like Northern England and Southern Scotland get 50 to 60mph gusts,

 

post-6686-0-62144500-1391195626_thumb.pn

 

9pm Saturday - It won't be until later in the evening before the strong winds reach inland parts where 40 to 55mph gusts are possible in England, Wales and Southern Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-54194900-1391195763_thumb.pn

 

After 9pm on Saturday the wind will stay strong in these parts but it should drop in speed at 2am on Sunday morning.

 

The swell height and high tides along with heavy rainfall is also another cause of concern. 9am Saturday a 50ft swell sits to the West coast of Ireland,

 

post-6686-0-98913500-1391195977_thumb.pn

 

By the evening it's gone down in height but remains very high,

 

post-6686-0-04982600-1391196034_thumb.pn

 

The next 24 hour rainfall totals chart shows Western Ireland, Wales, SW England, N England, S Scotland and E Scotland will get the most rainfall totals during Saturday.

 

post-6686-0-01534200-1391196181_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Talking of Wednesdays system, heres how the NMM 18km model currently sees it on the 12z run. Another set of very windy charts for what has been a really stormy winter so far which looks like continuing for a good while yet! 

 

post-9615-0-21720200-1391198052_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-52354200-1391198065_thumb.pn

 

Needless to say with the wind, lots more rain to fall! 

 

post-9615-0-84806700-1391198343_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

I think the storm Tuesday night and Wednesday will be more a southern event/impact or that's how it's forecasted to so far, we'll see....So far it seems to be upgrading on each run just like the storm just before Christmas did!

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

Hurricane force winds likely occuring with this low... hope they remain out over the ocean !!

 

https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/429440288474423296/photo/1

 

Animation loop to watch how the low developed

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/animated_gifs/seviri_2014_02_01_0158Z.gif

 

edit: daylight enough to shoot video. Again Burrows Flooded - Waves over Sea Wall

 

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Talking of Wednesdays system, heres how the NMM 18km model currently sees it on the 12z run. Another set of very windy charts for what has been a really stormy winter so far which looks like continuing for a good while yet! 

 

Posted Imagenmm1.pngPosted Imagenmm2.png

 

Needless to say with the wind, lots more rain to fall! 

 

Posted Imagenmm3.png

Wednesdays storm is the big one for where I am, I think. The direction and strength of the wind will make a very rough sea. Rainfall will be distressing for the sea cliffs, landslips and other damages are inevitable.

I am expecting this one to be the worst of the Winter around here. My reasoning behind this is quite simple, it has shown its self with more intensity on the GFS than all the others and it has been persistent at that. 

Only for the Channel Coasts that is, I think its approach direction is perfect in that respect. Will have the camera ready. Oh and the chainsaw.....

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

ESTOFEX have issued a level 2 for western Ireland and a level 1 for western parts of the UK for severe wind gusts.

http://www.estofex.org/

post-5386-0-50894700-1391242857_thumb.pn

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