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Atlantic Storms February 2014


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#21 weathermaster

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 14:58

I just went on to the link below and they have Exeter as getting 77MPH gusts next Saturday 8th February, if that happens, it would be the worst storm to hit here in years, probably since the burns day storm!

 

http://www.worldweat...px?q=EXT&day=20

 

God knows what it would be like in Cornwall as Exeter usually doesn't get the strongest winds due to the moors I guess to our west....

 

Next week is certainly one to watch.

 

I love all these storms, obviously not even anyone gets hurt but if it's not going to snow i'd rather it be stormy.

 

Edit:  On further inspection it actually says 99MPH with sustained winds of 50MPH for next Friday here in Exeter, is this for real....I checked the wind speeds for tomorrow and Saturday they appear what other websites are saying so I don't think they are over exaggerating?

 

Jesus christ, if it did happen this would be the worst storm to effect the southern UK in years, maybe worse than Burns Day storm or the great storm of 1987, I'm keeping my eyes and ears pealed on this one, very worrying....

 

It says Plymouth next Friday can expect 60MPH sustained winds and 125MPH gusts....... the south west/south coast would be obliterated

 

I wouldn't trust that website doesn't really make any sense why the wind speeds are so high. Sure the current models show some storms but nothing that severe so I think it's just overdone the wind speeds. It doesn't make any sense why somewhere would have 60mph mean speeds with gusts up to twice that speed maybe if it was on really high ground it could be possible. Plus these events are over a week away things will change a lot between then, with the recent storms the models struggled to get the correct positioning and wind speeds until 48 hours before the event.


Edited by weathermaster, 30 January 2014 - 14:59 .

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#22 TwisterGirl81

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 15:24

I wouldn't trust that website doesn't really make any sense why the wind speeds are so high. Sure the current models show some storms but nothing that severe so I think it's just overdone the wind speeds. It doesn't make any sense why somewhere would have 60mph mean speeds with gusts up to twice that speed maybe if it was on really high ground it could be possible. Plus these events are over a week away things will change a lot between then, with the recent storms the models struggled to get the correct positioning and wind speeds until 48 hours before the event.

 

 

Thankyou....I did think that when I read that considering the highes wind speed reported at Exeter Airport was 85MPH during the Burns Day storm....If this was a distinct posibilty it would be all over the news but I am keeping an eye on this one as they must get their information from somewhere?


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#23 Surrey

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 15:37

the 7th has caught my eye as well.. It is a week tomorrow and I can't really see it being as bad as this but one to watch..

 

Models currently updating so cant really see but check out this chart for 3pm tomorrow... Just look at those isobars on the southern flank in the Atlantic WOW smiliz23.gif

 

airpressure.png


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#24 Liam J

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 16:09

Real tight pressure gradient on the GFS 12z, storm force winds affecting much of Ireland and the western mainland between S Scotland and SW Wales, wouldn't like to be out in the Irish Sea come Saturday!

 

gfsss.gif Mean speeds in km/h. 90-95km/h = 56-59mph.


Edited by Liam J, 30 January 2014 - 16:12 .

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#25 Chill Pill

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 16:29

Real tight pressure gradient on the GFS 12z, storm force winds affecting much of Ireland and the western mainland between S Scotland and SW Wales, wouldn't like to be out in the Irish Sea come Saturday!
 
attachicon.gif.pagespeed.ce.hPGJFKgqtP.ggfsss.gif Mean speeds in km/h. 90-95km/h = 56-59mph.


Wow ... so this is upgrading!?
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#26 Mokidugway

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 16:46

Costal defences are naff in this country , a few 2 or 3 ton boulders , nead to use acropods or 50 ton concrete blocks like they do in canary islands !!....
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#27 The PIT

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 17:47

Costal defences are naff in this country , a few 2 or 3 ton boulders , nead to use acropods or 50 ton concrete blocks like they do in canary islands !!....

To protect the the whole coast would cost a very large amount of money. If you protect one area you just create faster erosion in another place.

Anyway back on subject looking interesting for Saturday may actually provided a stormy day. The GFS has the strong winds a lot more widespread than the warnings.


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#28 Mokidugway

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 18:23

To protect the the whole coast would cost a very large amount of money. If you protect one area you just create faster erosion in another place.
Anyway back on subject looking interesting for Saturday may actually provided a stormy day. The GFS has the strong winds a lot more widespread than the warnings.

my point was that highly vulnerable areas are inadequately protected , I well understand coastal erosion , longshore drift etc as some of my work includes coastal defenses !....
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#29 Chill Pill

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 18:27

Bad planning from the year dot ...... We've stolen our natural sea defences and built promenades over them. Bulldoze the lot I say LOL.
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#30 Mokidugway

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 18:32

Bad planning from the year dot ...... We've stolen our natural sea defences and built promenades over them. Bulldoze the lot I say LOL.

I agree a good pebble beach is better than any concrete , stone or sheet piling ..
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#31 weathermaster

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 19:52

Here's my view on the stormy weather over the next few days.

 

Currently Saturdays storm is in development in the Atlantic the image below shows where it currently is and over the next few hours it is going to exit the jet steam and bomb out,

 

C.png

 

So here it is at 12pm Friday in the Atlantic with mean speeds between 60 to 70mph,

 

B.png

 

During Friday afternoon and the evening a strong wind from the South East will affect most parts with 45 to 55mph gusts likely,

 

UK1.png

 

Friday will also be a very wet day across all of the UK,

 

Fri Rain.png

 

The storm by Friday evening has created a very large swell out in the Atlantic as well at over 50ft,

 

Swell1.png

 

Onto Saturday the wind will start to pick up at 6am across Ireland and as the day progresses the wind speed will increase over Wales and England as well. Ireland can expect 60 to 70mph gusts meanwhile England and Wales 45 to 55mph.

 

UK2.png

 

Uk3.png

 

Saturday morning the 50ft swell hits Western Ireland,

 

Swell2.png

 

By the afternoon and evening it slowly goes down to the West of Ireland but a 24 to 28ft swell reaches the SW of England,

 

Swell3.png

 

Here's a chart that shows the next 72 hour rain totals. So Western Ireland. Wales, SW England, N England, E Scotland look to see the most rainfall over the next 3 days,

 

RainTotals.png

 

Overall Friday to Saturday night looks wet and windy. The wind is nothing out of the ordinary we have seen these wind speeds already many times this winter but add in the high tides, the large swell heights and heavy rainfall then it is an event that needs to be watched closely.


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#32 tinybill

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 19:57

well looking  at the  models  to-night  feb  could  be the wets for a  long  time  lots of  rain heading our way  not what the  flooded  parts want   nor  the  farmers

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel...?mode=2&ech=204


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#33 Liam J

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Posted 30 January 2014 - 20:30

A look at the GFS 12z wind gust charts for Friday/Saturdays storm.

 

Gusts in excess of 60mph sweeping into western parts during tomorrow morning.

gfs1.png

 

Strongest winds transferring to the NE into Friday evening with the Northern Isles taking a battering.

gfs2.png

 

The main circulation of the depression makes landfall over Western Ireland during Saturday morning with gusts around 80mph maybe higher on the extreme coast.

gfs4.png

 

Into Saturday afternoon the severe gales cross the Irish Sea into the mainland with gusts 60-70mph maybe more, mean speeds in excess of 50mph.

gfs3.png Gusts gfs5.png Mean

 

Further heavy rain affecting the already flood hit counties which will just exacerbate the numerous problems many people are facing right now, combined with high tides and storm surge the ground conditions unfortunately could become a whole lot worse. 

gfs6.png

 

Further land & coastal flooding, wind damage for some and blowing snow for others (Highlands) - A very active spell of weather coming up and yet again likely to make the headlines for all the wrong reasons. 


Edited by Liam J, 30 January 2014 - 20:32 .

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#34 Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 09:59

I'm not sure why Met Office high wind warnings are not more widespread for tomorrow as this looks at least as bad for most of Northern England as some of the storms from before Xmas which all had fairly widespread warnings ?


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#35 Storm Track

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 10:26

More worrying about the accumulation of rainfall up to 100-150mm across the nationwide but heavy squally showers with flooding rain in the next few days away.

192-777UK_kqo2.GIF

Edited by Storm Track, 31 January 2014 - 11:01 .

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#36 triple_x1

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 11:11

Shocker ^ this one is going to pack a punch with blizzard conditions for some, primarily in the far north and parts of N Ireland.

Coastal gusts expected to be around 70mph even 50-60mph inland at times. Maybe worth considering any non-essential travel plans or at least carefully planning them to hopefully not coincide with the very worst of the conditions.
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#37 Mokidugway

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 12:19

Not a good weekend for building card towers in the garden then !!!.....
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#38 Bobby

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 12:20

Good grief it's horrendeous out there. Persistent heavy driving rain and the gusts have picked up quite a bit just recently, getting a bit stormy now.


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#39 texel

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 12:25

Radar looks a bit strange today.


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#40 dragon falls

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Posted 31 January 2014 - 12:27

Same here lashing down road getting big puddles already looks very angry looking radar
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