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Scotland Regional Weather Discussion 27/01/14


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl
  • Location: Aberdeen 33m asl

I'm heading to Tynecastle, Edinburgh for the football semi final on Saturday afternoon - a bit concerned about the strength of the wind....coming down from Aberdeen I'd say the Tay and Forth Bridges may be closed or even the game postponed or abandoned!

 

Any thoughts?

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Today was the 49th consecutive day with rainfall at Glasgow airport! That sums up the winter we are having this year. It really has been a roller coaster with the models but alas the past two days have gone in the wrong direction. There were some favourable details: low pressure in the jet, heights over Scandinavia, low pressure sliding se as well as some decent background signals across the northern hemisphere. The models never really showed a proper blocked and cold scenario and there was still an Atlantic theme (although not classic, raging, mild zonality) but given how traditionally the northern hemispheric set up is different in February in comparison to December there was still far more potential in the following three weeks than what we've had to endure since our last decent cold spell in late November. This hasn't changed as cold spells may still show up as we go through February (even if the vortex is in control with further zonal conditions). But in the past 48 hours low pressure systems being modelled after the weekend have taken a different track from se to ne and other factors are overwhelmingly not looking that great for February - although nothing is the be and end all. The segment of the vortex across the other side of the pond really had been king this winter. This year has been similar to 06/07 and 07/08 in terms of persistent and excessive lack of winter weather and just like exceptionally cold or blocked winters, years like this will come up once in every while although the former is more common. Anyway there is some more seasonal weather on offer this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

I'm heading to Tynecastle, Edinburgh for the football semi final on Saturday afternoon - a bit concerned about the strength of the wind....coming down from Aberdeen I'd say the Tay and Forth Bridges may be closed or even the game postponed or abandoned!Any thoughts?

I don't think that the wind will be strong enough to close the bridges and Tynie doesn't' often get postponements from waterlogged pitches so I hope that it is on as I am going too though I am definitely not hoping for the same result. Phishing doon here ATM.Snow on the mountains. Glenshee today.http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/file.php?2,file=9598 Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Anything an inch of snow ....please God...give us a break!

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

…and your evidence for this is what, precisely…????

Not a shred!Posted Image Mostly hope, prayer and the law of averages!

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Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted Image
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Mibbae a "snaw dance" Major straw clutch no 999 lol

 

I give up - i'm off to Siberia lol

 

See you tomorrow folks - well you never know do you - us optimists lol

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Will I phone the T-shirt factory and ask them to start making the "I survived winter '13-'14" t-shirts?

What if we don't survive?  It isn't over yet!Posted Image (the rain once again bouncing off the conservatory roof as I type!)

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

Posted Image I give up, I feel like we're chasing rainbows, I had hoped that Friday was going to be our Snow day but again it look like another day of rain Posted Image 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

The NMM out to +72 hours from our French friends is quite promising as far as snow is concerned by midday Friday:

Posted Image

This is genuinely as mild as it gets on Friday before the front clears and we're left with a widespread frost for Saturday morning:

Posted Image

 

We're seriously close to an epic snowfall for this weekend, with the 925s (for some reason it's 925hpa instead of 950hpa on the GFS) holding an utterly valiant rearguard action against the advancing (but transient) milder upper air:

Posted Image

We're genuinely not far off a really fantastic event here, just out in the North Sea is the perfect spot, just on the eastern side of the front with uppers still sub 0C by 6pm:

Posted Image

 

We are going to need something to change though, be it a westward or a southward correction (ideally with a more negatively tilted LP drawing air up from France rather than the Atlantic near the surface) for it to really come off in a big way. Certainly still time though, 3 days is a long time in model watching and the GFS at least has been downplaying the warm sector run by run so there's definitely still hope but at the moment it looks like a few hours snow, followed by a few hours heavy rain, followed closely by yet more wintriness. As ever, take away the rain and you've got perhaps the best frontal snowfall since March 2006. Sadly, it's that first bit that just keeps proving too hard to manage (amazing when you consider it didn't rain, only snowed, in central Edinburgh for the last 20 days of March 2013). But we live in hope...

I don't mean to sound too downbeat though, I mean we've still got four consecutive days where snow is likely to fall to low levels. This isn't exactly notable in any normal winter, but it will be nice to see something other than rain and potentially see some accumulations building up. There's always surprises to be had when the cold air is actually in place, and who knows - perhaps Thursday will see some kind of localised feature developing in the col to bring in some totally non-marginal snow.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

Mibbae a "snaw dance" Major straw clutch no 999 lol

 

I give up - i'm off to Siberia lol

 

See you tomorrow folks - well you never know do you - us optimists lol

 

Did someone say snawdance?

 

Gotta be worth a punt.....

 

post-6412-0-96627100-1390959738_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

 when you consider it didn't rain, only snowed, in central Edinburgh for the last 20 days of March 2013

 

 

….and none of it settled, remember? I've never seen so much snowfall with not a single flake settling! I remember 36 hours of non-stop snowfall… resulting in snow-depth of 0.00mm!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

….and none of it settled, remember? I've never seen so much snowfall with not a single flake settling! I remember 36 hours of non-stop snowfall… resulting in snow-depth of 0.00mm!

Yes, that was quite annoying, we had about an inch on the 11th/12th when the uppers were insanely cold but after that stuff melted It basically only lay during the night and melted by morning (I have fond memories of walks back to Pollock from Hive in a blizzard at 3am!). Would be nice to see something similar but earlier this winter - even a spell of the same intensity but in late February/early March would've been much more potent with low ground snow accumulating to decent depths (plus the SSTs would've been warmer, generating more convection). I also think if it'd been an Arctic sourced outbreak with N/NErly winds it might've been different, although those aren't usually brilliant for our locality in terms of precipitation.
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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

….and none of it settled, remember? I've never seen so much snowfall with not a single flake settling! I remember 36 hours of non-stop snowfall… resulting in snow-depth of 0.00mm!

 

Yet out here in the sticks March was excellent! Just curious but when did Edinburgh do OK from the kind of event we're looking at on Friday? Marginal, snow to rain,   West to east? I might be wrong but it usually ends up disappointing! 

Edited by 101_North
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Yet out here in the sticks March was excellent! Just curious but when did Edinburgh do OK from the kind of event we're looking at on Friday? Marginal, snow to rain,   West to east? I might be wrong but it usually ends up disappointing!

I'd be curious to know as well - gut feeling is that I'd much rather be in Fife for it than Edinburgh as the heaviest precipitation almost invariably seems to miss us in these setups, albeit I've only been here for a few of them.
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Posted
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl
  • Location: Peebles, Scottish Borders, 168m asl

Guess what?

It's raining.

Utter pish again.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Another pish morning too!

Ditto. 4.9/4.4C here and still raining. Yesterday my rain gauge recorded 17.5mm and so far today we've had 10.2mm.
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Touch of the colder air around this morning. Be interesting to see Euro4 roll out later... Fingers crossed we get a stalled front that delivers something spectacular.

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl

I'd be curious to know as well - gut feeling is that I'd much rather be in Fife for it than Edinburgh as the heaviest precipitation almost invariably seems to miss us in these setups, albeit I've only been here for a few of them.

Yep, I'd say you're right there. I'm no meteorologist, as you know :) - but so far as I can tell, when the entire UK is hit by feet of snow incoming westerly, Embra tends to have three inches of soggy slush gone by Tuesday. When people refer to "amazing" winters, I feel puzzled, because I love snow and I can't think why I would have forgotten such an amazing snowy winter - and then I realise either I was away at college or, most of the years, it just wasn't that snowy in Embra. 79-80 was ace, and I'm told the year before was even more ace - and most of the winters up to 87-88 when I left school were snowy in early January, maybe 6 of the 8 - but then there wasn't what i would call a really snowy winter that I was around for until the Heap Big Snow of 2010-11. I would love to know whether there was an easterly set-up for 79-80, for 78-9, and for the 80s in general, because there definitely were some majorly snowy winters in there!

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

To keep the Kilted Thread's spirits up (and coz there's still a way to go before winter is truly over), here's a wee snap of Comrie (my soon to be new hame) from Sunday. 

 

 

 

Am thinking that if it can look like this in a snawless winter, when we eventually do eventually get a good blootering from the snaw, it's gonnae be cracking. Posted Image

 

Keep the faith, cauldies! 

Not only snowy hills but also a good pie shop in Comrie - or at least used to be...Posted Image

 

Hey, it stopped raining for a minute just then... back on now though.

Edited by Hairy Celt
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