Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Holland Park (London)
  • Location: Holland Park (London)

The ECM op run goes for a sub 964mb low at 144hrs to west of Western Isles. The ECM mean goes for instead a flabby 995 one instead.Says to me that not many of the ensembles support that deep low, the mean would be deeper and low more round if they did.Or is there a flaw to my logic?

Sort of. An ensemble mean will (almost) never be as extreme in that sort of situation, as it is the mean of all solutions on offer, so less amplified runs will reduce its potency. It is best used for trends rather than assessing tracks of specific systems, as it is not actually a specific model run, just an average of many. So a dramatically weaker low from the ensemble mean should, essentially, mean that there isn't uniform support for the op run. However, it is probably more useful to look at the individual members themselves.

Edited by Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

it's been a long winter for you, hasn't it?

It's been a long winter for all of us... capped off by the irony that after a summer of virtually no storms we end up with a winter which has had several thundery events, including todays which was by all means an epic storm.

Shame the UKMO dropped that pure cold easterly so it's back to where the line will be drawn between cold rain and snow. lets hope for some more westward corrections over the coming runs.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

This post is very perplexing, goes against what all the other experts on here are saying.

The difference between Gibby and other posters imo is that Gibby is not sitting on the fence post T120. I don't think many experienced posters would say Gibby will definitely be wrong tonight, but rather would say we are back in a more uncertain outlook.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Exactly, I was wondering if it was just me that remembered the giant snow event for a large proportion of the UK that occurred on the 23rd of March 2013. After the equinox!!!

This is not a sunshine and showers situation, a slider with copious precipitation is quite different as has been expressed by numerous posters in here

The colder SSTs are actually quite positive for that time of setup as it reduces the coastal modification relative to early winter setups with onshore winds. Even with convective setups it's still mostly uppers dependent up to mid February (probably late February up our way) - anything below -8C will see accumulations persisting inland and below -10C is almost always fine. I remember the 11th March last year, which was an incredible event in that it was the coldest day of the entire winter period with maxima in central Edinburgh only getting above 0C for about half an hour, with minimum temperatures overnight at -5C with moderate convective snow showers (low SSTs inhibited convection somewhat). Our memories are perhaps distorted by the late February 2005 cold spell, which was typified by lots of snow but also lots of daytime melting, but much of that was down to uppers being a bit too high and we still ended up with 2 big snowfalls during that time. For frontal setups even less is needed - March 12th 2006 was an absolute peach of a breakdown snowfall and of course, more relevant, February 1996 delivered for the majority in a big way.

Anyway, up to +96 not all that much change on the pub run, and if we're doing the John Holmes 'run by run' analysis you can clearly see the westward correction to the high, although the very slight worry for me is the lack of westwards correction of the Azores High and troughing to the NW (not the troughing itself but rather the lack of westwards correction of it, obviously the next move *should* be the low disrupting under the high but we don't want too much ridging of the Azores high eastwards or it could wreck the nice easy path to undercutting lows created by the euro low):

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please carry on with the model discussion here. If your post is more of an emotional reaction to the models (like - "This run is bad" , "This run is a shocker" , "That's it, the cold isn't coming", "This run is amazing!!!!!") please post it into the model banter, moans and ramps thread so we can keep this thread more discussion based. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

Major Forecasting ModelsGFSECMWFECMWF EPSGEFS EnsemblesUK MetFaxGEMCompare The Big 4

 

If you think a post is a wind up, wildly off topic or breaking the forum guidelines - please don't respond to it, just hit the report button and the team will check it asap. 

 

 

Given some recent posts, I think a reminder of Paul's opening comments are in order.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Meanwhile GFS showing good inter run consistency on the pub run tonight upto day 5.

 

 

Edit: Ok Paul no worries

Edited by Jason M
Removed quote as original post was deleted
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The cold uppers don't properly make it over the country on the 18z and then Friday's Atlantic system just brings rain.

Not what we wanted to see.

 

Karyo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

Many in the South and South West and any other flood hit areas would be pleased if this chart came to fruition - not only is it cold, but it's dry too! Not that it is very likely to happen mind you - one run out of many and over 5 days away!

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Joe Levy
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

The cold uppers don't properly make it over the country on the 18z and then Friday's Atlantic system just brings rain.

Not what we wanted to see.

 

Karyo

156 GFS 18z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012518/gfs-1-156.png?18

162 GFS 12z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012512/gfs-1-162.png?12

 

Stop fooling around.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Not liking this run at all, around 144 onwards the energy from the vortex is much further north and is not sliding down over the uk, presure building to the south west...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

The cold uppers don't properly make it over the country on the 18z and then Friday's Atlantic system just brings rain.

Not what we wanted to see.

 

Karyo

 

Still in line with official thoughts though I believe, always was Friday for a potential breakthrough of the Atlantic, i.e. t+168 hours or wherever it lies. Plenty of fun and games before hand.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

What's happening before that chart? Have you noticed?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

18z throws another variation into the mix and sends the low north east???.Would seem that someone is twiddling with the computers today lol.See what the morning brings and any more quick changes esp with the points made across the pond.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Whilst the pub run is rather rubbish synoptically, I would probably take a weak Azores ridge with some decent cold 850s, a couple of dry crisp sunny days would be a nice change.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Probably some scattered wintry showers in western areas for a time.

Got to laugh after that, the high drifts north east with the next low approaching, possible slider here.

Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

18z throws another variation into the mix and sends the low north east???.Would seem that someone is twiddling with the computers today lol.See what the morning brings and any more quick changes esp with the points made across the pond.

Yes, no slider here. Just a typical gentle move northeastwards.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

This chart at the end of high res on the 18z GFS is extraordinarily complicated! With cold surface and upper air from previous days, snow would be feasible in this instance as the low pressure hits the block, but all in FI territory and part of the whirlwind tour of every option known to man which we have been subject to!

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Joe Levy
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Some very odd charts, now appearing in the output

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

Hardly an angry Atlantic is it?

I get the feeling the models are sniffing around a different cold pattern then we all perhaps were expecting, changes may take longer but could well be worth the wait.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Fml looks like another phantom easterly in  fiPosted Image Posted Image .Oh dear becoming crazy now this and it would seem some big changes in the nh profile are on the way

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Please carry on with the model discussion here. If your post is more of an emotional reaction to the models (like - "This run is bad" , "This run is a shocker" , "That's it, the cold isn't coming", "This run is amazing!!!!!") please post it into the model banter, moans and ramps thread so we can keep this thread more discussion based. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/ Major Forecasting ModelsGFSECMWFECMWF EPSGEFS EnsemblesUK MetFaxGEMCompare The Big 4 If you think a post is a wind up, wildly off topic or breaking the forum guidelines - please don't respond to it, just hit the report button and the team will check it asap. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This chart at the end of high res on the 18z GFS is extraordinarily complicated! With cold surface and upper air from previous days, snow would be feasible in this instance as the low pressure hits the block, but all in FI territory and part of the whirlwind tour of every option known to man which we have been subject to!

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Much better angle of attack, winds more of a SE ahead of the front as opposed to SW, as was forecast for next Friday.

 

would be much happier if this happened next Friday, as opposed to being forecast at T+204 ( so won't happen)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Some very odd charts, now appearing in the output

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.png

Hardly an angry Atlantic is it?

I get the feeling the models are sniffing around a different cold pattern then we all perhaps were expecting, changes may take longer but could well be worth the wait.

 

 

The ensembles will be interesting in the day 7-10 range tonight. I've never really bought into next weeks supposed cold spell, but if we get another bite the following week things could get more interesting. Tentative hints at a blocked Atlantic tonight.

 

 

Edit: Ignoring FI again tonight Posted Image

Edited by Jason M
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...