Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM flips... or is it flops this time, not sure

Got to be honest, from the output this evening, the signs are not good really, GFS is a no but that's a given most times. UKMO frankly is sending the low east at day 6, so it's just the GEM really supporting anything which resembles significant cold.

Edited February 12, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[IDO]

If anything the GEFS from the 12z are as flat and zonal medium and long term as they have been for a while. They have no support for the rogue ECM op runs.

 

D10 mean:    D16 mean: 

 

The London ens: 

 

The trend in FI is for a slow rise in temps to above average levels.

 

The GEFS apart from a very low cluster of a colder synoptic this morning, have been consistent, indicating a less stormy zonal flow for the rest of February. Transient drier spells from short wave ridging, and a cluster that suggest the pattern may shift a bit further north (benefitting the far south), but no signal that this is trending.

 

Not great and the CFS keeps March in the same pattern:  

 

 

[Purga]

GFS 12z ENS showing a continuing unsettled theme again with temps avearge to mild

 

ECM briefly cooler then trending mild

Hopefully not going the rainfest route .

Edited February 12, 2014 by Purga

[bluearmy]

the 12z op looks like the 00z control at T168. if it continues the same way, expect the depressions to make progress east across to the north of the uk and slowly sink se across us by day 10.

Edited February 12, 2014 by bluearmy

[weather eater]

Well a transient ridge on the ECM and then pretty flat, gone is this morning plan it always looked likely to be the case.

[Ukwoody]

Hi guys, just seen the fax chart for Friday, which shows that very deep low over us.  Does this mean mega heavy winds for us in West wales again?  The bars look quite close together, so does that signify wind?

 

thanks for your help

Woody

[mountain shadow]

Once the Ukmet threw in the towel it was clear the ECM would follow.

[Stuie]

Lets keep the faith folks. 192 is probably easy FI from the ECM and the cold pool to the east is growing (PV inc)

[cooling climate]

They are usually very good and much better in my view (others disagree) than the synoptic models. If the 3 are very similar over about 3 days to each other and consistent then about 70% accuracy at 500mb. The clever bit then is to try and get the surface pattern close.

Yes I can think of one instance when the synoptic models consistently showed a change before the anomaly charts but just the one I can recall in 4 years daily watching throughout each year.

Sounds like selective memory to me. There have been several at least in my recollection. It is for this reason

I do not subscribe to your methology.

 

Back to the here and now and the heights and amplified pattern that I have been banging on about since the

start of the month is trying to exert itself in the NWP charts. The ups and downs especially by the ECM (again)

may mean they are rushing this slightly which is not uncommon when the models try to bring in a more

amplified or blocked pattern.

I still stand by my forecast of a much colder last third of February and on into March.

[SMU]

ECM pretty good tonight, obviously not as stella as the 00z run however the deep cold continues to make progression towards central europe at day 8 9 & 10

Lots of water to flow under and indeed over the bridge!

S

[Jason M]

Once the Ukmet threw in the towel it was clear the ECM would follow.

 

In truth I don't think anyone really bought into the ECM this time. Too many battle scarred veterans here now to get suckered in on one rogue run. From my perspective I thought the lack of support from GEFS was instructive this morning. obviously people have there views about GFS vs ECM (which doesn't need repeating yet again), but GFS does give a lot of info to us and when you see an opp, control run and 20 ensemble members all saying 'no' at days 7,8,9,10 it takes a brave person to simply discard that weight of evidence.

 

Its still possible that something could come from the pause in the current pattern as its still out at days 5 and 6. Personally though I'm hoisting the white flag this evening. At 42 this is my first winter with no snow falling whatsoever. That is truly remarkable at our latitude and beats even 88.

 

2013/2014 - the year that winter forgot

[Troubleatmill]

In truth I don't think anyone really bought into the ECM this time. Too many battle scarred veterans here now to get suckered in on one rogue run. From my perspective I thought the lack of support from GEFS was instructive this morning. obviously people have there views about GFS vs ECM (which doesn't need repeating yet again), but GFS does give a lot of info to us and when you see an opp, control run and 20 ensemble members all saying 'no' at days 7,8,9,10 it takes a brave person to simply discard that weight of evidence.

Its still possible that something could come from the pause in the current pattern as its still out at days 5 and 6. Personally though I'm hoisting the white flag this evening. At 42 this is my first winter with no snow falling whatsoever. That is truly remarkable at our latitude and beats even 88.

2013/2014 - the year that winter forgot

Could well be Jason, although after last year and walking in powder snow and 6ft drifts in early April at little above 70m ASL, Winter may well be over soon but winter conditions can arrive for a long while yet, whether we want them at that point or not :s, still believe this could all flip in another direction. In early December we questioned RJS' s winter forecast as it said December would be wet and stormy? Nah most said including me, no sign of any storms reaching our shores......ps at 41 ive seen a few in my location Edited February 12, 2014 by Nicholas B

[gottolovethisweather]

Hope those don't come off, I'm hoping that the Low won't deepen too much in the meantime.

 

So far over here, the worst storm we had by far was the St Jude one in October, followed by the pre-Christmas one. I think Saturday's has the potential to equal the 23rd December one in strength, if not longevity.

 

If it turns out like St Jude, I can look forward to my garden being rearranged again!

 

Don't worry about the past St. Jude storm, its the St. Valentine's storm we now need to keep our eyes on, maybe instead of going out, get a delivery.

 

Edited February 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Stuie]

Looking at the ECM 192 chart tonight, it is very very plausible for cold from the East to filter towards us. The low pressure is locked in with the only exit towards western Europe. I have had a little doodle.

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19582-ech1-192/

[Jason M]

Could well be Jason, although after last year and walking in powder snow and 6ft drifts in early April at little above 70m ASL, Winter may well be over soon but winter conditions can arrive for a long while yet, whether we want them at that point or not :s, still believe this could all flip in another direction. In early December we questioned RJS' s winter forecast as it said December would be wet and stormy? Nah most said including me, no sign of any storms reaching our shores......

Yep, you could be right regarding spring. I can't personally remember a single major march snowfall Imby but I do accept other places may still be in the game.Ironically if it were still January I wouldn't be too put out by tonight's output, but were in mid feb now.

[OldMetMan]

All credit to the models regarding today's storm and picking it up when they did.

 

I have done a quick browse around the forums and so far have seen no reference to the fact that today's LP would seem to have had a sting jet associated with it. Hence the Met Office Red Alert. Certainly the satellite presentation earlier gave every impression that this was indeed happening.

 

Anyway, the models, this coming weekend's LP does indeed look to be the last major storm for the time being. As ever, the GFS appears to exaggerate intensities, but after today, who can say for sure!

 

Beyond that, weakening flow - gradually - but stronger references from the main models from time to time of more of an anticyclonic trend, although the GFS reverts to its usual zonality on the 12Z. I tend to think we may yet see an easterly, perhaps not much of one, but quite honestly, we just need a break from this interminable rain, so any pressure build would be welcome.

 

We could see more noticeable 500mb height rises spreading from the SW to support HP build up to the NE and N, if some troughing occurs off the US east coast. There is some support from the lesser models for this idea. I think this weekend could see the turning point for a change in pattern so it will be interesting to see model trends at that time.

 

One word I don't expect to hear this year is "drought"!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

 

 

Sounds like selective memory to me. There have been several at least in my recollection. It is for this reason

I do not subscribe to your methology.

 

Back to the here and now and the heights and amplified pattern that I have been banging on about since the

start of the month is trying to exert itself in the NWP charts. The ups and downs especially by the ECM (again)

may mean they are rushing this slightly which is not uncommon when the models try to bring in a more

amplified or blocked pattern.

I still stand by my forecast of a much colder last third of February and on into March.

 

No problem with you disagreeing with my methods for general guidance in the 6-15 day time frame CC. I honestly cannot remember another instance in the 4 years I have been checking these charts. However I am more than happy for you to give the instances you imply. But I am a touch hurt that you comment I have selective memory. Not true, I have spent almost 10 years on here trying to give clear, plain honest and objective advice.

 

not sure how I got the post from Steve in there-finger trouble by me again!

 

Edited February 12, 2014 by johnholmes

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looking at the ECM 192 chart tonight, it is very very plausible for cold from the East to filter towards us. The low pressure is locked in with the only exit towards western Europe. I have had a little doodle.

Yes Iv been thinking along these lines myself to be honest , the Siberian sector really becoming a major player next week , with two notable sectors you could see a window of opportunity for hight rises in the middle toward Iceland , with deep cold into Europe pushing west along the southern arm of the high pressure over Iceland and just east of there . That could push the Atlantic systems southeast and undercutting the high giving an easterly. Those words may seem hard pushed to some but we're not far from that evolution from those charts you show. Interesting times

[Tamara]

Sounds like selective memory to me. There have been several at least in my recollection. It is for this reason

I do not subscribe to your methology.

 

Back to the here and now and the heights and amplified pattern that I have been banging on about since the

start of the month is trying to exert itself in the NWP charts. The ups and downs especially by the ECM (again)

may mean they are rushing this slightly which is not uncommon when the models try to bring in a more

amplified or blocked pattern.

I still stand by my forecast of a much colder last third of February and on into March.

I am a well known cold weather and snow fan as much as anyone on here and probably at least as much as you as well, cooling climate, but objectivity comes first, imo, I think in this thread, and most especially atm in the continuing atrocity of the winter pattern which has kept managing to attain levels of sustained high impact and severity that are as deeply worrying as they are astounding.

 

Previous posts over the last week or so have attested to a relaxation of the most extreme conditions after the next storm system on Friday/Saturday wreaks even further havoc, but that simply means in the first instance that severe gales and storm force winds become less likely. One would like to call that a start towards improvement, and of course it is in terms of one dangerous hazard at least removed from the equation - but does the modelling look any more conduisive to making the rain stop and easing the horrific flood problems as it does in bringing in any cold spell such as you keep predicting with such confidence?

 

Its easier imo at at least to answer the question about any cold 'potential' first. The evidence from the stratosphere continues to suggest that sequential warmings as seen higher up continue to flatter to deceive and are not propogating to the surface, and also failing to sustain themselves and make any difference to our surface weather in the troposphere.

 

Vorticity remains firmly to our NW and truly significant amplification also remains in the wrong sector of our NH to influence us downstream and there is good ensemble agreement for this vorticity energy to continue to leak depressions downstream over the coming 10 to 15 day period albeit with less intensity than present.

 

It seems clear to me at least, that the latest attempted split in the pattern and amplification wrt a weak surface rise in pressure is very unlikely indeed to lead to the sort of appealing scenario the ECM suggested this morning and the pattern will stay too flat for the foreseeable future, albeit with the temperature gradients reduce somewhat stateside the cyclonic activity is set to become less intense.

 

There remains scope for eventual pressure rises down the line towards months end as suggested previously for reasons given then - so a real improvement may finally occur in terms of the weather painfully slowly drying up. At this stage, imo at least, that has a much better chance of happening first rather than any change to a much colder last third of February.

 

Its a drying up of the pattern which remains too far ahead than ideally wanted for most if not all of the country and that should take precedence I think over chasing phantom easterlies - and that is coming from someone like me who is one of the biggest fans there can be of them.

Edited February 12, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[SMU]

Even with the overall signal washed out at day 10 the ECM still gets the deep cold into Europe

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014021212/EDH1-240.GIF?12-0

 

I Suspect some colder solutions on the table tonight.... especially in the day 8-12 arena.

S

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from the NWP for today Wednesday February 12th 2014 and posted over from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a deep low pressure drifting slowly North over Scotland over the next 24 hours with a strong and showery Westerly flow bringing frequent showers with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere over the next 24 hours. A few drier and clearer intervals will separate the showers, these most likely in the East. Then by Friday a new storm equally deep as this one is shown to make a repeat track across Ireland and then on to Scotland later in the day with more severe gales and heavy rain sweeping East across all areas followed by another day or two of cold wintry showers and bright intervals in gradually decreasing winds.

 

GFS then shows next week and the remainder of the run with continuing unsettled weather though it is important to say things look less dramatic than currently with some drier and brighter spells separating the rain and showers periods in temperatures largely unchanged or maybe a little milder at times than currently.

 

UKMO ends it's run on Tuesday with a weak ridge across the UK with a weak trough approaching from the West with occasional rain later in the day with fairly average temperatures overall.

 

GEM shows a more coherent ridge as we move through the middle and end of next week. Eventually some ingress of Atlantic wind and rain does move in towards the North and West later.

 

NAVGEM also shows Low pressure making it's way back into the UK in the shape of a trough bringing rain slowly East more likely in the North and West.

 

ECM tonight shows less dramatic weather next week as Low pressure orientates itself on a different course giving the most rain across the NW. Later in the run a slack ridge of High pressure builds North from the South settling things down at long last with the NW likely to be the only areas likely to see significant rain by the end of next week. It doesn't look like it will last long though in it's shown form.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show a slightly less optimistic mean from the operational although the basic pattern isn't far from agreed. low pressure looks likely up to the NW in 10 days time with a SW flow bringing occasional rain to the UK but in less dramatic form than that of late.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of rain at times under an Atlantic influence continuing. Temperatures will rise somewhat to levels near or somewhat above average after the next three or four days.

 

The GFS Jet Stream continues to blow to the South of the UK for three or four more days before the flow become much more flamboyant as it undulates North and South over and around the vicinity of the British Isles.

 

In Summary tonight there is still some good support for something of an improvement in conditions from the period towards the middle of next week. There will still be some rain at times likely, more especially over the North with the South seeing the best of drier and brighter spells with some relief for flooded areas at last.

Edited February 12, 2014 by Gibby

[Stuie]

I am a well known cold weather and snow fan as much as anyone on here and probably at least as much as you as well, cooling climate, but objectivity comes first, imo, I think in this thread, and most especially atm in the continuing atrocity of the winter pattern which has kept managing to attain levels of sustained high impact and severity that are as deeply worrying as they are astounding.

 

Previous posts over the last week or so have attested to a relaxation of the most extreme conditions after the next storm system on Friday/Saturday wreaks even further havoc, but that simply means in the first instance that severe gales and storm force winds become less likely. One would like to call that a start towards improvement, and of course it is in terms of one dangerous hazard at least removed from the equation - but does the modelling look any more conduisive to making the rain stop and easing the horrific flood problems as it does in bringing in any cold spell such as you keep predicting with such confidence?

 

Its easier imo at at least to answer the question about any cold 'potential' first. The evidence from the stratosphere continues to suggest that sequential warmings as seen higher up continue to flatter to deceive and are not propogating to the surface, and also failing to sustain themselves and make any difference to our surface weather in the troposphere.

 

Vorticity remains firmly to our NW and truly significant amplification also remains in the wrong sector of our NH hemisphere to influence us downstream and there is good ensemble agreement for this vorticity energy to continue to leak depressions downstream over the coming 10 to 15 day period albeit with less intensity than present.

 

It seems clear to me at least, that the latest attempted split in the pattern and amplification wrt a weak surface rise in pressure is very unlikely indeed to lead to the sort of appealing scenario the ECM suggested this morning and the pattern will stay too flat for the foreseeable future, albeit with the temperature gradients reduce somewhat stateside the cyclonic activity is set to become less intense.

 

There remains scope for eventual pressure rises down the line towards months end as suggested previously for reasons given then - so a real improvement may finally occur in terms of the weather painfully slowly drying up. At this stage, imo at least, that has a much better chance of happening first rather than any change to a much colder last third of February.

 

Its a drying up of the pattern which remains too far ahead than ideally wanted for most if not all of the country and that should take precedence I think over chasing phantom easterlies - and that is coming from someone like me who is one of the biggest fans there can be of them.

The thing is Tamara, this is a current weather thread.Most posters this time of year want snow, or at least sharp frost and freezing days. We all know how horrific the conditions are for the people in the areas worst but yes chasing a phantom Easterly is something to basically keep this thread going at this time of year. I did hear that even if it didn`t rain again it would be at least May until maybe some flood waters would recede.

I have to say sorry because I want to see some flickers and white stuff even though I am being blasted from every news channel that the floods are bad. Funny, I already know that and I do feel sorry for all affected.

[bluearmy]

Seems to be plenty of scope for ridging to the north of the UK through the second half of the ECM ens.

[legritter]

I am a well known cold weather and snow fan as much as anyone on here and probably at least as much as you as well, cooling climate, but objectivity comes first, imo, I think in this thread, and most especially atm in the continuing atrocity of the winter pattern which has kept managing to attain levels of sustained high impact and severity that are as deeply worrying as they are astounding.

 

Previous posts over the last week or so have attested to a relaxation of the most extreme conditions after the next storm system on Friday/Saturday wreaks even further havoc, but that simply means in the first instance that severe gales and storm force winds become less likely. One would like to call that a start towards improvement, and of course it is in terms of one dangerous hazard at least removed from the equation - but does the modelling look any more conduisive to making the rain stop and easing the horrific flood problems as it does in bringing in any cold spell such as you keep predicting with such confidence?

 

Its easier imo at at least to answer the question about any cold 'potential' first. The evidence from the stratosphere continues to suggest that sequential warmings as seen higher up continue to flatter to deceive and are not propogating to the surface, and also failing to sustain themselves and make any difference to our surface weather in the troposphere.

 

Vorticity remains firmly to our NW and truly significant amplification also remains in the wrong sector of our NH to influence us downstream and there is good ensemble agreement for this vorticity energy to continue to leak depressions downstream over the coming 10 to 15 day period albeit with less intensity than present.

 

It seems clear to me at least, that the latest attempted split in the pattern and amplification wrt a weak surface rise in pressure is very unlikely indeed to lead to the sort of appealing scenario the ECM suggested this morning and the pattern will stay too flat for the foreseeable future, albeit with the temperature gradients reduce somewhat stateside the cyclonic activity is set to become less intense.

 

There remains scope for eventual pressure rises down the line towards months end as suggested previously for reasons given then - so a real improvement may finally occur in terms of the weather painfully slowly drying up. At this stage, imo at least, that has a much better chance of happening first rather than any change to a much colder last third of February.

 

Its a drying up of the pattern which remains too far ahead than ideally wanted for most if not all of the country and that should take precedence I think over chasing phantom easterlies - and that is coming from someone like me who is one of the biggest fans there can be of them.

fantastic post ,yes im a snowy fan ,but for the sake of safety any significant cold and snow can wait a while ,plenty of rain to come yet over the next 7 days and models becoming interesting ,cheers gang .

[chris55]

Extreme FI i know,  but highlights the fact that if we are very lucky....deep cold is still a possibility, even right at the end of the meteorological winter.