Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Some very stormy charts from the ECM & GFS, interesting times ahead whichever way you look at it.

 

ECM1-192.gifECM1-216.gifgfs-0-192.png

 

GEM also showing a stormy spell towards the end of its run

 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think +240 will start to show the Azores High starting to link with the Arctic , let's see .

[Joe Levy]

Very interesting FI on the ECM at 240 hours. Fairly similar to some of the output on the GFS and GEFS, but to be taken with a pinch of salt for the time being.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think +240 will start to show the Azores High starting to link with the Arctic , let's see .

Told you so  

 

[Summer Sun]

Azores high starting to link up with the Arctic if I'm looking at it correctly at t240

 

[Purga]

So a 1050mb Svalbard High

Not bad for a finisher.

 

A huge reservoir of cold awaits in Siberia just dying to pay us a visit - LOL

Edited January 17, 2014 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

Well this would be freezer bound for most of Europe.

 

I agree with Nick here, we need westward corrections earlier on, if we can get lows to disrupt over or west of the UK, the path to cold and snow will be so much easier and that big jet streak may be a one way ticket to snow Valhalla if that low ploughs into France instead of Scotland. 

[Long haul to mild]

 

Another deep low lining up at t216

 

You really need to look at the NH Charts , it is undercutting the Arctic High and pushing it West , now into Greenland. 

 

 

 

 

Yes, fits with what the GFS shows tonight too, which is a building of heights into Greenland after that storm passes through. Day 10 onwards, although a long way out still, holds the main interest.

[terrier]

Looking like more storms and rain on the gfs and ECM tonight with a lucky few seeing abit of wet snow. But certainly no freeze anytime soon. Just got a feeling we're going to be on the wet stormy side when the pv splits. Also the ec32 update today doesn't bode well for cold out to mid feb. And I would say it's performed excellent this winter so far.

[Tamara]

I'm very happy with the overall trends being suggested and could this be an occasion where the amplification in the atlantic upgrades with time on the models rather than the reverse we have seen most of the winter?. Sticking to the idea that the westerly energy burst will occur and route 2 to cold is most likely (ie through Greenland rather than the route 1 with the arctic High connected to the resident heights to the NE)

 

Its behind the burst of energy disrupting across the atlantic by days 8 to 10 that the jet is most likely to be compliant. It continues to be encouraging to see the trough disruption with this suggested energy transport - in this way we shouldn't unduly worry necessarily about the strength of the suggested jet streak.  Its the signal for pressure to finally be rising over the pole which is far more important and gives us credence for what might lie beyond 

 

In fact ECM operational tonight at day 10 reads the script of the atlantic amplification and connection to a brand new -AO world very nicely thanks

 

Edited January 17, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[nick sussex]

Eventually a break in the Alien queen spawning out lows but its anyones guess whether there will be enough amplification upstream at that time, if theres not enough the energy from the PV will just phase with the UK troughing and its game over, even with a nice looking Arctic high theres not a guarantee here that there will be a cold outcome for the UK.

 

I think I'll stick to my westwards chant for the earlier timeframe and hope my pilgrimage to Lourdes tomorrow does the trick! lol

[draztik]

So a 1050mb Svalbard High

Not bad for a finisher.

its just getting there that is the problem! Looking at the output tonight, storm lashed Britain looks like having a another round!

[Davey80]

You never know, all that incredibly cold air in the arctic that has been bottled up for so long could now give us a really severe spell. The cold that was released into North America certainly was!

[Davey80]

I think they'll be some upgrades in the next few days and I'd expect the 240hr chart to be shown a few days earlier 

[lorenzo]

That big lobe of cold is making better progress on tonight's ECM vs last night. Commanding Arctic high maintained, lower heights over Italy.

 

Last night 12z / Tonight

 

Sure these are variations from op. run to op run but eye candy charts for those on the hunt for cold.

[AWD]

The GFS Op & EC Op really aren't a million miles away from each other at day 10;

Both have the Canadian vortex separating from the Scandi vortex which is the main plus. Detail with ref to our little island be it cold/mild irrelevant at this stage.

Coincidence? We will soon find out.

Edited January 17, 2014 by AWD

[Mucka]

I don't really understand the love for the UKMO 144 chart other than it is an improvement over the morning run. We can already see energy leaking NE preventing any proper link up between the scandi and Arctic ridge and all the energy upstream is heading NE. It is not a poor chart in the sense you can not rule out a cold pattern developing later with the Arctic height rises but it offers less opportunity than the ECM 144 chart IMO which has some undercut and no shortwave spoilers to the NE - the jet is also better aligned.

Personally it will take a lot more than a 144 chart like the UKMO before I start digging out the woollies but the ECM, yeah that's more like it and UKMO could get there tomorrow if our luck is finally changing. 

All eyes on the ECM ensembles.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Mucka

[ITSY]

A fantastic chart at ECM 240:

 

Ties in exactly with GFS op and GEFS Control runs, splitting the vortex into at least two parts, ridging southward to form an Arctic/Svalbard high edging into Greenland - which in turn sees advection from the Azores as we hope to see the two areas merge somewhere around Eastern Greenland. You can't get better ingrediants, but who knows at this stage how it will turn out. I'd hazard a guess at saying this is the prime opportunity we've been waiting for, but plenty of times for it to go the way of the pear yet.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Lovely-ecm following gfs in FI with at last some retrogression in the Mid Atlantic.

Fingers crossed a change is coming

[nick sussex]

You do have to love some of the comments from NCEP, I can't see the BBC using this any time soon! the comments are a little disappointing as we want an eastern USA low as that might help develop a more amplified Azores high but they think theres still a chance that could change:

 

IN THE EAST... IT APPEARS TOBE A FISH STORM PATTERN WITH FEWER CHANCES FOR AN EASTERN COASTALSTORM THAN WHAT EARLIER ENSEMBLE RUNS HAD SHOWN... BUT THOSE AREDETAILS WHICH CAN CHANGE IN ANY GIVEN MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLE. 

[Bolton67]

Looking like more storms and rain on the gfs and ECM tonight with a lucky few seeing abit of wet snow. But certainly no freeze anytime soon. Just got a feeling we're going to be on the wet stormy side when the pv splits. Also the ec32 update today doesn't bode well for cold out to mid feb. And I would say it's performed excellent this winter so far.

 

 

Are you ian brown in disguise ?

[Stuie]

You do have to love some of the comments from NCEP, I can't see the BBC using this any time soon! the comments are a little disappointing as we want an eastern USA low as that might help develop a more amplified Azores high but they think theres still a chance that could change:

 

IN THE EAST... IT APPEARS TOBE A FISH STORM PATTERN WITH FEWER CHANCES FOR AN EASTERN COASTALSTORM THAN WHAT EARLIER ENSEMBLE RUNS HAD SHOWN... BUT THOSE AREDETAILS WHICH CAN CHANGE IN ANY GIVEN MODEL/ENSEMBLE CYCLE. 

So the east will now not be battered? (sorry)

 

Haven`t bothered posting any charts tonight as not much has changed dramatically from last night. FI still good but FI. 

 

Edit: apart from the azores nearly getting up amongst the pv (mentioned last night)

Edited January 17, 2014 by StuieW

[nick sussex]

Another day same old GFS problem!

 

...SHORTWAVE DIPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT/SATURDAY THEN
SWINGING EAST...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS...DROPPING THE GFS AFTER
19/12Z
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS THROUGH 19/00Z. IT THEN
FILLS WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTH
AND EAST. THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN
THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE ACCOMPANYING IT APPROACH THE EAST
COAST. THEREAFTER THERE HAS BEEN SOME VARIANCE TO THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAD
SLOWED...WHICH BROUGHT IT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS CONSENSUS...BUT
THE REST OF THE 12Z MODELS ALSO SLOWED...MEANING THE GFS IS STILL
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ON DAY 3.

 

Lets hope that slowing trend gathers even more pace.

 

I have to say the GFS since I've been reading those discussions has been dropped countless times for being too fast, theres rarely a day goes by  without it receiving some criticism for its progressive nature.
 

Edited January 17, 2014 by nick sussex

[Man With Beard]

Trying to pull out the positives ... well, at least there are cold 'attacks' coming on the charts on a regular basis. I don't think the threat from Scandi is completely dead, looking like it could fail at T144 but how close do the -5C uppers get to the east coast on the UKMO. The idea of an Arctic attack is starting to simmer - wow not sure I've seen an attack from the other side of the globe cross the Arctic to break up the westerly flow! Anyone recall such an event? But a long way out and the problem is that should blocking to the east persist, the trough at T240 may not be able to clear and we're stuck under more cold rain.

[Captain Shortwave]

Last from me, look at Western Russia and Northern Scandinavia by week 2

Monster cold pool out there, if we can get the Scandi high further west in the day 5/6 range, we might end up with a large ridge from the Arctic high stretching through the GIN corridor as opposed to it being centred over Scandinavia by week 2. If that happens then that wall of cold over Siberia will be marching our way, and well most of Europes way. Whilst the northerly would be cold, that cold over to our north east is in a whole different league.

Edited January 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave