The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:
A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.
I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:
There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.
Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too.
Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.
The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.
This is for Wednesday 8th ^^
NAE accumulation 00z +48:
(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)
My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.
(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)
Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 07 January 2014 - 06:59 .