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Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014

heavy rain flood weather precipitation rain forecast

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#1 Tobor

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 04:36

The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:

14010706_0700.gif

A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.

I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:

14010706_0700.gif

 

There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.

 

Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. 

 

 EURO4:

14010712_0618.gif

Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.

 

spacer.gif

NAE:

14010712_0700.gif

The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.

 

UKMO:

14010900_0612.gif

This is for Wednesday 8th ^^

 

NAE accumulation 00z +48:

14010900_0700.gif

 

 

(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)

 

My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.

Heavy Rainfall and Surface water Floods - Tue 7th and Wed 8th January 2014 - ESS.png

 

(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)

 

ESS.


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 07 January 2014 - 06:59 .

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#2 egret

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 13:06

The general situation now is we have a deep low pressure on the scene, NAE surface pressure:

14010706_0700.gif

A southwesterly flow that is unstable is bringing frequent lines of showers (call them streamers if you like) these are very heavy downpours some thundery and some could contain hail, also very windy.

I want to throw in the lifted index from GFS the yellow showing the unstable airmass moving into the SW:

14010706_0700.gif

 

There has recently been thunderstorms in the SW. These unstable conditions spreading more over the BI today, I'm showing the LI charts as this will enhance the downpours this morning increasing the potential for thunderstorms and so more intense rainfall. please see the convective thread for more on the thunder.

 

Currently there are some intense lines of thundery downpours of rain as seen on the latest radar, these are affecting much of England (particularly SW) and parts of S-Wales too. 

 

 EURO4:

14010712_0618.gif

Lines of precipitation, especially the SE and it's here where the most prolonged showers could affect today.

 

spacer.gif

NAE:

14010712_0700.gif

The model indicates some potentially disruptive rainfall over parts of the south, with IOW, Hampshire, Sussex and Kent also Surrey and London areas potentially severe weather today, and also the next day needs watching closely too. For Western Scotland, ppn models indicating high ppn amounts here today.

 

UKMO:

14010900_0612.gif

This is for Wednesday 8th ^^

 

NAE accumulation 00z +48:

14010900_0700.gif

 

 

(just updated the map to inclu SW for the deeper oranges after radar review)

 

My map is based on latest radar and ppn accm charts for today and tomorrow.

attachicon.gif.pagespeed.ce.hPGJFKgqtP.gHeavy Rainfall and Surface water Floods - Tue 7th and Wed 8th January 2014 - ESS.png

 

(Please note that I have put deeper orange over Southern areas due to radar review and downpours and thunderstorms currently active in places and expected to continue today, more prolonged rainfall at times over the next 48hrs over Southern UK) Also note that high ppn is shown to affect Western Scotland over the next 36-48hrs too)

 

ESS.

Well if that (prolonged rain)  materialises it could prove to be the final straw for many in Dorset (and doubtless parts of Somerset too). The rivers are now truly at their limits and, being largely ground water fed, it will take quite a time for river levels to drop appreciably. Meanwhile any additional rain will cause these normally 'mild' rivers to spate in an unaccustomed way. If Noah were here, even he might engage Baldrick to suggest a cunning plan!

 

Lets hope the high pressure builds quickly and then holds for a few weeks, otherwise the outlook is very stark indeed for people who live and work in the vales and valleys.

 

Edit : MetO update just issued appears to place main areas of rain away to the E and W of Dorset, perhaps we are being spared for the time being (IMBY)!


Edited by egret, 07 January 2014 - 13:10 .

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#3 Bobby

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 13:41

If we get a block to the NE/E and a stalemate with atlantic fronts stalling over us this could be bad news regarding rainfall, possibly worse than now as the rain has often moved through briskly. Something to keep an eye on, several examples in the ensembles and OP runs of stalling fronts over us the weekend/early next week and big rainfall totals. Might be getting colder and less stormy but the rain problems probably haven't gone away yet.


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#4 Mapantz

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 17:31

Edit : MetO update just issued appears to place main areas of rain away to the E and W of Dorset, perhaps we are being spared for the time being (IMBY)!

 

Backs up my post in the regional discussions. :)


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#5 egret

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Posted 07 January 2014 - 23:35

Backs up my post in the regional discussions. smile.png

Yes, you beat me to it. Same concern, different prompt.  


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#6 Tobor

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Posted 08 January 2014 - 03:58

Interesting feature heading up from the southwest through today and into the night. This frontal system bringing a lot of rainfall to western and northern areas with the low, also this developing system could have a sting in it's tail with the winds for the s/e on Thrs.

 

Accumulated ppn charts

The models look as though they are agreeing with the track of the system now developing off the southwest shores over the Atlantic, we can take a look at some charts to see where the precipitation/rain is being indicated to fall from the weather system.

Starting with the NAE 18z and 00z accumulated precipitation up to early Thrs,

NAE 18z:

14010906_0718.gif

NAE 00z

14010906_0800.gif

The model was indicating what looks like around 12-15mm over Kent but has now removed this threat, this a separate area of rainfall, that could still affect the far SE, still rain to come over the southeast, but not as much now as the heavier acc on NAE (far SE corner) has moved away.

 

The heavy falls of rain looks likely for Wales and up into Northern England and also some into the SW. But things can change when it come to intensity and local areas so something to be aware of. 

 

EURO4:

14010900_0718.gif

At +30 Shown here the deep blues over western Scotland 30-40mm, with north and west Wales 30mm acc ppn, over areas to note from this are SW England and the towards the SE, it's this area of rain the NAE has removed but is shown here on an earlier data.  

 

GFS 18z:

14010906_2_0718.gif

Quite similar track of the system.

 

+21 - 00z:

14010821_2_0800.gif

 

Acc ppn by 2100hrs tonight, indicating a dry EA/SE.

 

00z - Next 1800-2100hrs:

14010821_2_0800.gif

 

Next the 00z UKMO 1800-0000hrs (+48), indicating wet for many right down into the SE:

14010900_2_0700.gif

 

Last one now and from NAE 00z - 1500-2100hrs ppn:

14010821_2_0800.gif

Very wet for Wales moving up into Northern England through the evening, the rain indicated near the SE corner needs a watch. Have looked at latest satellite images. The weather system I expect could shift a more southeasterly track (tracking northeast but more southeast) bringing heavy rain to central southern and more of the SW.

14010818_2_0800.gif

 

 

My rain alert map I have covered the central south into the southeast as a watch. The warnings are at the moment for the Southwest, Wales, and parts of northern England, also west Scotland.

 

The warning Map goes up to Thrs early morning and is where the largest rainfall accm are expected using data from several models

Heavy Rainfall and surface water Floods - Wednesday 8 January (inclu early Thrs) 2014 - ESS.png

 

ESS

 

 

Next week could be mentioning snowfall, even for the south, the pattern change is likely but the problem being be it rain or snow still goes into the rivers.


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 08 January 2014 - 04:35 .

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#7 Tobor

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 03:16

Not to much rain around for most of this weekend but keep checking the forecasts as late weekend we are keeping tracks of this weather front, UKMO ppn:

14011206_2_1012.gif

Looks worrying while we have the floods, normally this would be a general band of heavy rain without to much fuss. can zoom in and look ahead at this, this really a heads up to potential for further flood problems increasing next week (although the Thames still rising in places now) 

14011300_2_1012.gif

UKMO shows a heavy band of rain crossing from west to east by later Sunday and early Monday,

 

but GFS shows this rain weakening as it moves across the country but still some heavy bursts in there:

14011300_2_1018.gif

Looking also at NAE for Sunday 1200-1800hrs:

14011218_2_1018.gif

The model indicates a heavy band of rain over western areas.

 

My thinking is that the front on Sunday would give heavy rain to the western side and still contain heavy pulses as it moves into the east. Are update later this weekend. (had some more rain earlier but radar shows this easing off now for many apart from heavy wintry showers in the NW of UK, snow showers over Scotland today)


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 11 January 2014 - 03:44 .

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#8 Tobor

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 03:43

Monday (today)

 

GFS:

Taking a look at the Surface Pressure Tendency hpa for 1800hrs:

14011318_2_1218.gif

This shows rising pressure at the rear of today's rainfall, this is a high pressure ridge resulting in a drier window for Tue.

 

Before this though we have lower pressure and showery weather, the models indicating most places from north to south seeing some rainfall today, some of this heavy, some showery, and with prolonged bursts in places, a few models are indicating heavy downpours for the south, I expect the Central south and SE seeing some more prolonged rain late on Monday and a possible 12-15mm, EURO4 and NAE showing a pulse of rain for the SE during the evening,

 

EURO4:

14011400_2_1218.gif

 

NAE:

14011321_2_1218.gif

So a day of heavy showers/rain and with some thundery especially the south and possibly adding to flood problems, and this is all before mid weeks rainfall.

 

A look ahead suggest some very wet weather to come.

The GFS accumulated ppn up to later Friday:

14011712_2_1218.gif


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 13 January 2014 - 03:50 .

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#9 Tobor

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 21:50

Models are indicating rain hanging around over the SE tonight, this especially over parts of Kent and possibly east Sussex, if this happens could see up at and around 10-12mm in places, it could miss and brush the Kent coast but latest radar suggests batch of heavy rain heading up from France now, are update later if I'm on here if any changes with this, but for now have done a map for the possibility of the feature/front slowing down over land.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding -  Warning Map - SE - up to 7am Tue 14 January 2014  (issued2100hrsMon) ESS.png

 

(Map goes up to 7am Tue)

A low-medium risk map here of this happening, the medium risk for rain covering Kent and east Sussex.

 

Ground very sensitive for rain, and after todays downpours (couldn't do map for this) then more so the risk for mid week potential floods-as more prolonged heavy rainfall.


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 13 January 2014 - 21:55 .

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#10 Tobor

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 19:16

Not any severe weather in the way of rainfall just yet but do keep check on the forecasts as this may change within a short space of time. For now though I can keep you updated on the rain for tonight.

 

Warm front crossing the south tonight and eventually the north. NAE-Thickness 500/1000hpa at midnight:

14011500_1412.gif

The rain falling now continuing to move east this evening and overnight with heavy bursts in there.

 

12z NAE ppn data, 2100-0300hrs:

14011503_1412.gif

 

00z EURO4 (for the same hrs)

14011503_1400.gif

 

12z GFS 0000-0300hrs:

14011503_1412.gif

 

12z GFS 0300-0600hrs:

14011506_1412.gif

 

All 3 models indicating some heavy bursts of rain on the fronts this eve/night.

EURO4 rainfall is more patchy for the south, the GFS and NAE more heavier bursts here with up to 10mm over 6hr period.

 

Looking at this data and latest radar image would suggest the front continuing eastwards bringing mild air with a band of rain some heavy this evening and tonight.

 

00z NAVGEM:

14011506_1400.gif

Indicates several mm of rainfall for many places tonight/by morning.

 

12z UKMO:

14011506_1412.gif

 

Possibly weakening towards the east tonight, as I said not any severe weather at the moment but the cold front and troughs are on the way and these could produce more heavy downpours this week...


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 14 January 2014 - 19:22 .

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#11 Bobby

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Posted 14 January 2014 - 19:49

NMM looks wet, 50-75mm possible over hills across the South over the next 3 days

 

nmm-25-72-0_jgg5.png


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#12 Tobor

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 03:24

Models signally potentially large totals of rain up to Thursday afternoon 20-30mm+ for Wales, Northwest England, Southern and Western Scotland, a cold front moves east Wednesday (today), Rainfall amounts up to 10-15mm for south inclu SE possible late today into night (inclu the heavy shws Thrs)

NAVGEM:

14011600_1400.gif

 

NAE acc ppn on the 18z:

14011612_1418.gif

NAE ppn on the 00z (recent)

14011612_1500.gif

Things change with the amounts of rain the models indicate until on the day, would know later more detail so something to keep watch on today.


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 15 January 2014 - 03:35 .

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#13 Bobby

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 14:04

The end of January could be as wet as the end of December looking at the charts, with raging zonality and deep lows carrying lots of rain throughout the GFS ensembles and the various model OP runs. Wouldn't be surprised to see flooding hitting the headlines again soon.


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#14 picog

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 16:43

The awful thing is that CFSv2 has been forecasting February to be at least as wet as January for several weeks now. Dismal.
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#15 Tobor

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Posted 15 January 2014 - 18:53

Recent radar image (approx 1 hour ago)

1700.gif

Band of rain some heavy from Scotland down to SW England.

 

Zooming in to the south:

Earlier radar image - weatheronline.jpg

A pulse of heavy rain heading towards the SE/EA for this evening/night.

 

A cold front is moving from the west to the east through this evening and overnight followed by troughs of heavy showers. 

 

GFS 12z Thickness 500/1000hpa (darker greens to the west are cooler air following CF)

14011600_1512.gif

 

12z NAE 1800-0000hrs ppn:

14011600_1512.gif

 

12z NAE(up to 3am)

14011603_1512.gif

Shows a heavy area of rain developing over Central northern England (Midlands up to Yorkshire) this is shown to affect through the night, so some heavy rainfall here I expect overnight

 

12z NAE 0000-0600hrs ppn:

14011606_1512.gif

 

Need to look out for heavy showers around for Thursday for many places. Heavy rain could affect the east of Scotland and then the north of Scotland though Thursday.

 

12z NAE 0900-1500hrs ppn:

14011615_1512.gif

 

Thursday daytime NAE indicates a shower line (rain streamer?) up the Irish sea, now this clipping into the east side of Northern Ireland and could affect for a long period of time.

12z NAE 1200-1800hrs ppn:

14011618_1512.gif

The model indicates showers lines affecting southern and western coast through Thursday some getting inland I would expect.

 

6z EURO4 1200-1800hrs ppn:

14011618_2_1506.gif

EURO4 indicates the inland showers more clearly, see the heavy deep blue are on the tip of N-Ireland, these moving inland and there are MO warnings out for the downpours to affect Northern Ireland on Thrs/Fri.

 

12z EURO4 ppn acc up to midnight Friday (Thrs night)

14011700_2_1512.gif

 

Highest amounts: 30mm being indicated for the east side of N-Ireland. 10-12mm SE/EA. 20 perhaps isolated pockets of 30mm for Central south-this could hit the SE. 10-20mm the SW.  up to 20mm Wales. 

possible 20mm for Central northern England overnight.

This is one models precipitation accumulations this evening, through Thrs and up to Midnight 17/1. (not inclu Fri) other models show similar but different slightly varied areas.

 

So some places seeing extra surface flooding and the watch is on for rain affecting Northern Ireland Thur/Fri. Are update were and when possible is any changes.

 

12z NAE 2100hr  - surface pressure (low pressure on the scene)

14011521_1512.gif

 

GFS -Surface Pressure Tendency for Thursday (tmw)1500hrs:

14011615_1512.gif

Low pressure bringing bands/showers of heavy and thundery rain but not all areas would get them to severe. The outlook is for more of the same.

 

(don't have time now to do any rain maps but are take a look later if I can to do a map for Thursday)


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 15 January 2014 - 19:06 .

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#16 Tobor

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Posted 16 January 2014 - 02:18

Have done an alert rain map for Thursday (today) Heavy downpours at times some may be thundery, the heavy rain over eastern England should move away later then moving up into eastern Scotland (have highlighted the heavy rain now affecting the Humber area)

 

Other areas heavy downpours some lines of these coming through, have highlighted the yellow as areas most at risk of the worst downpours to day and flooding risk.

 

Northern Ireland have highlighted the high risk of prolonged rain 'rain chain' these heavy rainfalls of continued showers affecting here into Friday piling into the same areas mostly the eastern side, so quite a risk of flooding here. 

 

In the conditions of floods I use my yellow tone for 12mm+ and orange for 20-30mm or more.

 

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding - Warning Map - for - Thursday 16 January 2014 (issued 2am) - ESS.png


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 16 January 2014 - 02:24 .

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#17 Tobor

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 03:02

Friday 17 January (Today)

 

Recent radar images show heavy showers with some very heavy downpours over southern and western England and south Wales, some of these also clipping the north Wales coast, heavy showers over the eastern side of Northern Ireland, some also affecting the Isle of man too.

 

Some Heavy rain could affect eastern parts of Scotland and also Shetland today.

 

For the rest of tonight and through Friday continuing with much the same conditions and affecting the same areas as mentioned above. Can't rule out heavy showers in other places but the areas mentioned is where I expect the heaviest and largest rainfall totals on Friday.

 

Precipitation max accumulation data (up to 0000hrs today)

 

12z EURO4:

14011800_2_1618.gif

 

18z NAE:

14011800_1618.gif

 

12z NAVGEM:

14011800_2_1612.gif

12z CMC:

14011800_2_1612.gif

18z GFS:

14011800_2_1618.gif

 

 

18z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency 1500hrs:

14011715_2_1618.gif

Indicates steady to slightly rising pressure generally, falling pressure far north.

 

1800hrs:

14011718_2_1618.gif

Indicates steady/rising pressure generally.

 

Rain warning map for today:

 

Have done an alert map to highlight the heavy rain and surface flooding risk areas for today.

Flooding continues and likely increasing that risk for some areas today with the heavy downpours. 

 

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding - Friday 17 January 2013 -  (issued 2am)  - ESS.png

 

UPDATE 4AM BASED ON LATEST RADAR expected heaviest rain downpours are moving a little further north, prolonged downpours merging now across the SE as per forecast.

 

Map update to include areas more north of London area, and areas northeast of Bristol channel (Worcester)

 

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding - Friday 17 January 2013 -  (issued 2am)  - ESS - (UPDATE 4am).png

 

Risk of gusty winds, lightning and Thunder also some hail.


Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 17 January 2014 - 04:31 .

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#18 The PIT

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 11:35

Pretty quiet on the radar front overall. Whether anything will happen later on tonight is another matter.


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#19 Mapantz

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 11:41

Pretty quiet on the radar front overall. Whether anything will happen later on tonight is another matter.


Not now the MO have stuck a warning out. :lol:
I get well over an inch of rain here and no warning, makes no sense to me.
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#20 alexisj9

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Posted 17 January 2014 - 11:59

Not now the MO have stuck a warning out. laugh.png
I get well over an inch of rain here and no warning, makes no sense to me.

Places flooded last night under that shower band in the south east, so I think it may be the thinking behind the warning, as any more showers/rain will just raise the flooding higher.


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